The Great Immortal said: The CPI data on September 12 is a mixed bag! Bitcoin is performing a V-shaped trend
After the CPI data was released, the market believes that the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this month has increased from 66% yesterday to 85%...The latest CPI data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday showed that the consumer price index growth rate in August dropped to 2.5%, lower than the expected 2.6% and also down from July's 2.9%. This marks the lowest level since March 2021 and is the fifth consecutive month of slowing growth.
Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI year-on-year growth rate for August was 3.2%, matching both the expected and previous values. However, the month-on-month core CPI slightly exceeded expectations at 0.3%, reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this year. Following the release of the CPI data, the market believes that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this month has risen from 66% yesterday to 85%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has decreased to 15%.
Looking back at the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin followed the stock market down after the U.S. market opened, hitting a low of $55,555 around 22:45. However, it then began to rebound sharply, reaching a high of $58,470 around 10 a.m. today. Subsequently, during the Asian trading session, it entered a phase of fluctuating declines, and as of the time of writing, it was priced at $58,077, up about 0.8% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
From the MACD indicator on the 4H chart, although the bearish momentum has weakened, it still exists, and there may be continued adjustments or fluctuations in the short term. The KDJ line values are all at high levels, indicating that the market is in an overbought state, which may pose a risk of a short-term pullback. The RSI is in the neutral to strong zone, with bullish momentum slightly prevailing in the short term, but market momentum is not strong. The Bollinger Bands show a slight widening trend, indicating that market volatility will increase. The price is approaching the upper band, and if it cannot effectively break through and stabilize, it may fall back to the middle or lower band.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
From the MACD indicator on the 1H chart, the DIF line is slightly crossing below the DEA line near the zero axis, showing signs of a death cross. The MACD green histogram indicates a slight increase in bearish momentum in the short term, posing a risk of a pullback. The KDJ three-line values are hovering around 50, indicating that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, with unclear direction in the short term. The Bollinger Bands are slightly narrowing, suggesting reduced volatility, and the market is about to enter a consolidation range, requiring further breakout direction. The RSI is in the neutral to bullish zone, indicating a slight short-term bias towards bulls, but the momentum is not very strong.
In summary, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
Short Bitcoin near $58,650 with a target of $57,300-$57,000 and a stop loss at $59,100.
Time of writing: (2024-09-12, 18:30)
(Article by: Daxian Says Coin)
