The Great Master said: On September 10, Bitcoin broke through the 58,000 mark in the morning! The Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut may be unfavorable for Bitcoin

The U.S. employment data released last week fell short of market expectations, raising concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy. A Federal Reserve governor clearly stated last Saturday that the time for interest rate cuts has come, and the possibility of considering an expansion of rate hikes cannot be ruled out. The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in September once surged to over 50%. Although rate cuts are generally good for risk markets, the decline in U.S. stocks and concerns about a recession have led to a drop in Bitcoin instead of an increase.
Last Friday's non-farm payroll report laid the groundwork for the Fed to initiate a rate cut cycle at the FOMC meeting scheduled for September 18. However, a significant one-time rate cut of 50 basis points could indicate the central bank's concerns about the economic outlook, highlighting the urgency for the institution to control the economic situation, which could trigger risk aversion in financial markets and put downward pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin and stocks.
In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin rebounded on Monday after a sluggish weekend, starting to oscillate higher around $55,000 after 11 PM last night. This morning, it peaked at $58,135 around 5 AM, but selling pressure emerged afterward, and as of the time of writing, it is quoted at $57,186, with a 24-hour increase narrowing to 3.45%.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the price is near the upper band and has previously broken above it, showing an overbought signal. When the price approaches the upper band and continues to move forward, short-term pullback pressure may become apparent. However, if the price can continue to stabilize near the upper band, this may also suggest that the subsequent upward momentum will continue.
Next, according to the KDJ indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the K line and D line values are in the overbought zone, while the J line value has started to turn down. When the KDJ indicator is in the overbought zone and the J line value turns down, it may indicate a pullback in the short term. However, if the KDJ lines can form a golden cross again at a higher position, a rebound may still continue.
Secondly, according to the MACD indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are close and are about to form a death cross, indicating that there may be a risk of price pullback. The MACD red histogram is gradually shortening, which also confirms the view that a price pullback is imminent.
Finally, according to the RSI indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the RSI value is 72.48, indicating that the market has entered the overbought area. An RSI close to the overbought zone usually means that the market may experience a correction or pullback in the short term. If the RSI can continue to remain at a high level, it may indicate that the upward trend remains strong.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the price has touched the upper band and subsequently experienced a certain degree of pullback. The current Bollinger Bands are expanding outward, indicating that market volatility has increased. From the current trend, Bitcoin's price is slightly adjusting near the upper band. If the price can pull back to the middle band and find support, this may provide momentum for further upward movement. However, if the price falls below the middle band, it may trigger greater downside risk and could further test the lower band.
Next, according to the KDJ indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the K line and D line values are at a high position, while the J line value has started to decline from a high level, indicating that the overbought state is beginning to show signs of retreat. In the short term, Bitcoin's price may face a pullback, and if the KDJ three-line values cross downwards to form a death cross, the likelihood of a short-term pullback will increase.
Secondly, according to the MACD indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are running nearly parallel, showing that the upward momentum is gradually weakening. The MACD red histogram is also continuously shortening, which further confirms the view that the upward momentum is weakening. If the MACD histogram turns from red to green, the price will likely pull back in the short term.
Finally, according to the RSI indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the RSI value is 62.8, which is in the strong zone but not in the overbought zone, indicating that the market's buying power remains strong. In the short term, Bitcoin still has room for upward movement, but if the RSI value continues to rise into the overbought zone, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of a pullback.
In summary, Bitcoin is currently showing multiple overbought signals, with KDJ and RSI indices operating in the overbought zone, and MACD about to form a death cross, indicating a risk of price pullback in the short term. However, if the Bollinger Bands maintain operation near the upper band and the indicators do not show significant declines, there is hope for continued upward movement.
Based on the above, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
Short Bitcoin around $57,800, targeting $56,500-$56,200, with a stop loss at $58,300.
Time of writing: (2024-09-10, 19:25)
(Article by - Daxian Says Coin)