In September, market tension surged, and the trend heavily relied on data
Key economic data from the United States is being released one after another.Author: BitpushNews
The cryptocurrency market continued its downward trend on Tuesday.
According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $59,840 early Tuesday morning but fell back to the support level of $57,500 after midday, followed by a slight rebound. As of the time of writing, BTC is trading at $57,901, down 2% in the last 24 hours.
Ethereum dropped 3% to $2,456, marking its lowest level since early February. Most altcoins are in the red, with only over 20 of the top 200 tokens showing gains.
Flux (FLUX) rose 18.6%, followed by UMA (UMA) and Sui (SUI), which increased by 6.9% and 5.7%, respectively. LayerZero (ZRO) saw the largest decline, dropping 9.3%, while DOGS (DOGS) fell 8.4% and Pendle (PENDLE) decreased by 7%.
The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.04 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share at 56.4%.
U.S. stocks and gold are also trending downward. At the close, the S&P 500 index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite fell by 2.12%, 1.51%, and 3.26%, respectively.
Historically, financial markets tend to perform poorly in September, and traders are awaiting several key data points that could influence the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut and the countdown to the U.S. presidential election in November.
Key U.S. Economic Data Released
The latest U.S. economic data has reignited concerns about a recession. The ISM Manufacturing PMI report for August, released on Tuesday morning, showed that the U.S. economy continues to contract, with an actual value of 47.2, below the expected 47.5 and July's 46.8. New orders fell from 47.4 in July to 44.6, while prices paid rose from 52.9 to 54.0.
According to the CME's FedWatch data, influenced by the weak data, traders have increased the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September from 30% a day earlier to 39%. However, the favored bet remains a 25 basis point cut, with a probability of 61%.
The most important macro data (which could also be the final deciding factor for a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed) is still Friday's employment report for August, with economists predicting job gains will rebound from 114,000 in July to 160,000. The unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.3% to 4.2%.
Chief Technical Strategist Larry Tentarelli stated, "The market currently seems very sensitive to any data. We have become a market that heavily relies on data."
BTC Following Structural Patterns of Past Cycles
TradingView analyst TradingShot pointed out: "Bitcoin has been closely following the structural patterns of past cycles," analyzing "similar sequences to cycle fractals."
TradingShot stated, "BTC has followed the exact path we plotted and achieved the expected outcome, breaking through the 1W MA100 (green trend line in the above chart). Since the price has essentially been in a consolidation phase (bull flag / descending channel) over the past six months, it is now time to revisit this chart to see what happens next."
The analyst explained, "With some adjustments, we can see that after successfully holding the 1W MA50 during the test in early August, the price should (relative to the past two cycles) start a new parabolic rebound (green arc in the above chart). We are 147 weeks (1029 days) away from the peak of the last cycle and 21 weeks (147 days) from the halving. In past cycles, this was precisely the time when Bitcoin began to rise significantly (marked 'we are here' in the above chart). In all cases, the 1W MA50 has held, so the market's goal now is to maintain it, so buyers do not lose psychological support. If this level holds, a breakout to $100,000 should be the minimum expectation, especially before the interest rate cut cycle begins this month and the November U.S. election (which traditionally sees the market bullish after elections)."
As for recent expectations, market analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that historically, September has always been a negative return month for Bitcoin.
Rekt Capital warned, "If Bitcoin also experiences the historically common 7% drop this September… it would mean Bitcoin would fall back to around $55,000."
