Trump's victory rate surpasses Harris, is it good for the global Web3 market?

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, market prediction platform Polymarket shows that Donald Trump's support rate is gradually rising, with the latest predictions indicating he has garnered 53% support, while his main competitor, current Vice President Kamala Harris, remains at 46%. This shift in data has sparked widespread attention and discussion, particularly in the financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. As a Republican candidate, Trump's rising support reflects not only his advantages in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion but also reveals the challenges and dilemmas Harris faces during her campaign.

This article will analyze the key factors contributing to Trump's rising support from multiple perspectives, including the Democratic Party's economic policies, the shifting attitudes of centrist voters, the absence of key political figures in battleground states, and the widespread support for Trump within the cryptocurrency industry, to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

1. Has "Harris Economics" Failed to Resonate?

"Harris Economics," proposed by Harris, is one of the core policies of her campaign. However, this economic policy has sparked widespread controversy in American society, particularly among centrist voters.

1. Controversy Over Price Control Policies
   Among Harris's economic policies, the most controversial is her proposed price control measures. These measures aim to limit companies' pricing power on essentials through legislative means to prevent price gouging. However, while this policy theoretically has some effect on controlling inflation and protecting consumer interests, in practice, economists and policy experts widely question its feasibility.
   Many experts believe that price controls could lead to market distortions, resulting in supply chain issues and product shortages. For example, an editorial in The Washington Post pointed out that Harris's price control policies could disrupt the supply-demand balance in the market, potentially leading to black markets and hoarding. Such concerns are not unfounded, as historical price control measures have often failed due to poor market responses. Therefore, while this policy may attract some voters hoping to lower living costs in the short term, it could lead to economic instability in the long run. This has hurt her support among centrist voters, especially those highly concerned about economic stability and market freedom.
2. Challenges in Housing Policy
   Harris's housing policy has also played a complex role in the electoral landscape. She proposed a plan to address housing shortages by building a large number of affordable homes for the middle class. On paper, this policy seems reasonable, especially in the face of America's worsening housing crisis, as increasing housing supply is undoubtedly a direct and effective solution.
   However, the problem lies in the extremely high execution costs of this policy, and its economic feasibility and practical effects have been widely questioned. For instance, Harris promised to build 3 million affordable homes during her first term, but the sources of funding and details of policy implementation have not been clearly outlined. Moreover, she has also pledged not to increase the tax burden on families earning less than $400,000 a year, which implies that the entire project may rely on massive government deficits or increased taxes on the wealthy, further intensifying criticism from both within and outside the Democratic Party.
   This uncertainty not only unsettles centrist voters but also undermines Harris's credibility in policy execution. While housing price controls and subsidies for homebuyers seem to directly address the interests of low- and middle-income voters, they could inadvertently lead to further price increases in the market, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts. Thus, although the proposal of housing policies demonstrates Harris's concern for social issues, the inadequacies in policy design and execution difficulties have had a counterproductive effect on her electoral prospects.
3. Attractiveness and Limitations for the Middle Class
   The core of Harris's economic policy is to improve the quality of life for the middle class, particularly emphasizing the enhancement of economic security through increased child tax credits and controlling healthcare costs. These measures theoretically help alleviate the economic pressures faced by the American middle class, especially in the context of high childcare and healthcare costs.
   However, as some critics have pointed out, while these policies are welcomed by some voters, the long-term sustainability and funding sources remain unresolved challenges. The votes of the middle class are crucial for any candidate, but if the policies are poorly executed, these votes may shift to opponents. Although Harris's policy design has an idealistic tone, potential issues in the execution process, such as possible increases in government fiscal deficits, weaken the actual appeal of these policies to the middle class.
   Additionally, Harris attempts to combine economic policies with social justice issues, such as achieving broader social equity through anti-discrimination legislation and reducing the economic burden on impoverished groups. However, this approach, while winning support from progressives, has raised concerns among conservatives and some centrists, who believe these policies may further expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty.
4. Overall Impact on the Election
   Overall, while Harris's economic policies demonstrate her concern for the middle class and low-income groups to some extent, the radical nature of the policy design and the lack of execution details have prevented her from effectively increasing support among centrist and economically liberal voters. Instead, these voters may be more inclined to support Trump, who has clearer positions and more pragmatic policies.
   The controversy surrounding these policies not only puts Harris in a passive position in the election but also provides Trump with ammunition for attacks. Trump can leverage the uncertainties in these policies to emphasize his experience in economic management and support for market freedom, thereby attracting voters who are more concerned about economic stability and growth. Thus, the impact of the Democratic Party's economic policies in this election is dual: on one hand, it strengthens Harris's support among progressives, while on the other hand, it creates more uncertainty among key centrist voters, providing conditions for Trump's rising support.
   Harris's policies include measures to lower living costs, control prices, and increase housing supply. Although these policies theoretically help address the dilemmas faced by the American middle class, the lack of clarity in execution details and potential fiscal deficit issues have led to significant criticism of the policies themselves.
   For example, while Harris's proposed price control policies may attract some voters in the short term, many economists and media outlets view these policies as "populist gimmicks" that cannot effectively solve real problems and may instead lead to market distortions and product shortages. Such negative evaluations have weakened Harris's support among voters, especially among centrist voters for whom economic issues are paramount, as they are more inclined to support candidates who can maintain economic stability and market freedom.

2. The Uncertain Attitudes of Centrist Voters in the U.S.

Centrist voters often play a crucial role in U.S. elections. Their positions typically do not lean toward either side, focusing more on candidates' actual policies and their impacts on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of controversy surrounding Harris's economic policies, her support among centrist voters has begun to decline. In contrast, while Trump's economic policies are also controversial, his clear positions on tax cuts and economic stimulus align more closely with centrist voters' expectations for economic development.
Additionally, Trump's support for the free market and the economic measures he implemented during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have also gained recognition from some centrist voters. In comparison, Harris's economic policies are perceived as too radical, particularly regarding price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to increase support among centrists.

3. The Absence of Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro: Will It Undermine Party Morale?

The absence of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has negatively impacted Harris's electoral prospects. As a key battleground state, the attitudes of Pennsylvania voters are crucial to the national election outcome. Shapiro's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategies, which could further weaken her support in the state.

In this situation, voters may begin to doubt Harris's campaign capabilities and party cohesion, leading them to support a more certain candidate like Trump. Shapiro's absence not only affects Harris's prospects in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacts her performance in other battleground states. For Harris, ensuring party unity and support in key states is critical to her campaign's success, but Shapiro's absence undoubtedly increases her challenges in this regard.

4. Trump's "Mutual Engagement" with the Cryptocurrency Industry?

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another significant factor in his rising support. Although Trump initially held a negative view of cryptocurrencies, he gradually changed his stance as the market developed and began to actively support the crypto industry.
In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to openly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that they would accept donations in various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. This move not only demonstrates his open attitude toward cryptocurrencies but also establishes a closer connection with the crypto community.
The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic step that not only expands Trump's voter base but also attracts young voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters often have a strong identification with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sends them a clear signal: he supports this emerging field and is willing to advocate for it politically.
In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has made a series of policy commitments that further solidify his position within the crypto community. One of the most notable commitments is to pardon Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road. Silk Road was one of the earliest and most famous cryptocurrency trading platforms, and Ulbricht's case holds significant symbolic value within the crypto community. Trump's commitment not only won him the favor of many cryptocurrency supporters but also conveyed his tolerant attitude toward the cryptocurrency industry.
Furthermore, Trump has stated that if re-elected, he will push for Bitcoin to be included in the U.S. strategic reserves and consider using Bitcoin to address some national debt issues. While these proposals have sparked widespread controversy in mainstream finance, they have received enthusiastic responses within the crypto community. Cryptocurrency supporters believe that these initiatives will greatly enhance the legitimacy and global status of cryptocurrencies, bringing greater development opportunities to the industry.
This supportive attitude has gained widespread recognition in the crypto community. Compared to Harris, Trump's stance on cryptocurrencies is clearer and more proactive, allowing him to gain substantial support in this emerging market. Practitioners and investors in the cryptocurrency industry are highly sensitive to market prospects and are more inclined to support a candidate who holds an open attitude toward the crypto industry. Trump's stance has evidently won him the support of this segment of voters and propelled his rising support.

5. Cryptocurrency Companies' Election Spending in the 2024 U.S. Election Cycle

According to a report by Public Citizen, nearly half of the corporate political donations in the 2024 election cycle come from cryptocurrency companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates aligned with their interests. The cryptocurrency industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in rhetoric but also tangibly impacts the election through financial contributions.

This corporate-level support further solidifies Trump's position within the crypto community and related industries. As more cryptocurrency companies and individual investors direct funds toward supporting Trump's political action committee (PAC), Trump's financial and promotional advantages in the election are strengthened, directly contributing to his rising support in prediction markets like Polymarket.

Conclusion: The Final Outcome is Uncertain, but We Hope for Further Relaxation of Web3 Policies by the Elected Candidate

In summary, Trump's rising support is the result of multiple factors. Harris's economic policies have sparked controversy, particularly among centrist voters, making it difficult for her to increase support. The absence of Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro has exacerbated concerns about party division, further weakening Harris's support in key states. Meanwhile, Trump's supportive stance toward the cryptocurrency industry has garnered him widespread recognition in this emerging market. Additionally, the substantial political donations from cryptocurrency companies have provided strong support for Trump's electoral prospects.
In the coming months, both Trump and Harris will face significant challenges. They need to continuously adjust their strategies to garner more voter support, especially among key battleground state voters. For Trump, continuing to solidify his position in the cryptocurrency industry and expanding his appeal to centrist voters will be key to maintaining his lead. Harris, on the other hand, needs to find a breakthrough to regain the trust of centrist voters while strengthening party unity to face the upcoming climax of the election battle.
Regardless of the final outcome, this election will have far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency market in the U.S. and globally. For investors and market participants, closely monitoring the policy directions of both candidates will be crucial for formulating future investment strategies.