The Great Master said: On August 19, Bitcoin's performance is weak, and the price is likely to decline further

Recently, Bitcoin's performance has been relatively weak, having fallen over 20% since reaching its historical high of $73,000 in March this year. However, most investors have not been discouraged and continue to hold onto their Bitcoin. Since most investors entered the market at high points, currently over 80% of short-term Bitcoin holders are in a loss position. If the market experiences a panic sell-off, short-term holders may cut their losses, potentially causing Bitcoin's price to drop further.
This week, several key events need attention. The minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released on Wednesday, which may provide more signals regarding whether the Fed will cut interest rates in September. If the minutes are dovish, it will strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September. On Friday (the 23rd) at 10 PM, Powell will attend the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting to deliver a keynote speech on the economic outlook. This comes at a critical moment before the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut, making his monetary policy signals highly anticipated.
On Sunday evening around 8 PM, Bitcoin briefly broke through the $60,000 mark, reaching a high of $60,250. However, selling pressure emerged, and after fluctuating around $59,000 for several hours, it began to decline rapidly after 7 AM today, dropping to a low of $57,800. As of the time of writing, the price is quoted at $58,900, with nearly all gains from the weekend having been erased. Currently, if it cannot hold the low point of $56,200 from last week, it may further decline to $54,100.
Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the price is operating between the middle and lower bands, indicating that the market is currently in a bearish trend. The narrow opening of the Bollinger Bands suggests that market volatility is decreasing. If the price fails to effectively break through and stabilize at the middle band, it may continue to decline.
Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the current KDJ three-line values are hovering in the oversold area and show an upward trend. If the K-line value breaks above the D-line value to form a golden cross, there may be a short-term rebound opportunity.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, both the DIF line and DEA line are operating below the zero axis, indicating that the overall market is weak. The MACD green histogram has shortened, suggesting that bearish strength is weakening. If the DIF line can cross above the DEA line to form a golden cross, a short-term rebound may occur. If it continues to stay below the zero axis and declines, it indicates that the bears still hold the advantage, and the price will continue to fall.
Bitcoin 1-Hour Chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the price is rebounding upwards from the lower band, approaching the middle band, indicating short-term buying support. The narrow opening of the Bollinger Bands suggests that market volatility is decreasing, and there may be resistance near the middle band. If the price can effectively break through the middle band and continue to rise, it may test the resistance near the upper band. Conversely, if the price fails to break through the middle band, it may retest lower levels.
Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the KDJ indicator shows that market sentiment is leaning towards a few levels in the short term, and the K-line value and D-line value have formed a golden cross upwards, indicating further upward space in the short term. However, the J-line value is already in the overbought area, so caution is needed for potential short-term pullback risks.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are operating below the zero axis, indicating that the overall market is in a weak state. The MACD histogram has turned from green to red, indicating that bearish strength is weakening. If the DIF line and DEA line can continue to rise and form a golden cross, a rebound may occur.
In summary, Bitcoin shows a consolidating trend on the 4-hour chart, currently near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with an unclear market direction. The MACD and KDJ indicators suggest that there is a certain rebound opportunity in the market, but overall attention should be paid to whether there is significant bullish strength to push the price above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Bitcoin shows signs of a short-term rebound on the 1-hour chart, with the price approaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the MACD may form a golden cross, while the KDJ indicator also indicates that the market may rise further in the short term.
Based on the above analysis, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
Short Bitcoin below $58,800, targeting $57,600-$57,200, with a stop loss at $59,200.
Time of writing: (2024-08-19, 21:00)
(Written by - Daxian Says Coin)