Does Bitcoin halving still have a bull market effect? | Q&A

1. Has the Ethereum ETF been approved, and is there any significance to this?

In fact, this event has a similar impact to the approval of the Bitcoin ETF at that time. In my view, both will indirectly benefit the price and liquidity of Ethereum in the long run, but the short-term effects, whether they exist or how significant they are, are not very important. Even if there are, they are fleeting.

Whether it's Bitcoin or Ethereum, the most direct factors that stimulate the price and promote ecosystem development are the applications within their respective ecosystems. The ICO boom of the past, the subsequent DeFi movement, and the current inscriptions in the Bitcoin ecosystem all exemplify this.

As I mentioned in previous articles, since the last bull market ended and we entered a bear market, the relationship between the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum has remained roughly at 14:1 (i.e., 1 Bitcoin exchanges for 14 Ethereum).

Later, as the Bitcoin inscription ecosystem developed, the price relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum changed significantly, quickly becoming 20:1, and now it's 22:1.

Why is this happening?

It's all a result driven by ecosystem development: during this bear market, the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem has outperformed that of Ethereum.

2. Did I participate in BTC domains?

I did participate in BTC domains, but that was a long time ago. At that time, I just participated casually, didn't spend a lot of money, and didn't have high hopes. After participating, I basically left it there without managing it.

3. It's been 4 months since the Bitcoin halving, and the bull market started with this Bitcoin conference.

I have also speculated in past articles about when the bull market would break out, but that was just a game. I think we shouldn't get too caught up in when the bull market will start, and we definitely shouldn't spend too much time and effort on these speculations.

Spending too much time on this can easily lead to negative obsessions, which only brings disadvantages and no benefits.

Since we have already set our operational strategy, we should execute according to that strategy. We need to follow our plan and not be swayed by market sentiment or our own emotions.

4. What are the risk points and fatal factors of the Degen token?

When assessing whether a crypto project has risk points, I look at the team, application scenarios, community, and other factors (such as the economic model).

From the team perspective, this project seems to differ from typical crypto projects: it doesn't have a clear, centralized team like others; it resembles a loose team composed of community members.

This loose team includes several well-known figures from the crypto community, who have all promoted and supported this project to varying degrees. Initially, players promoted it as a reward token similar to Dogecoin; later, a team launched it as a fuel token for a third-layer expansion based on existing technology.

Such a team lacks a clear central figure and mainly relies on a guerrilla approach to advance the project. This approach may work during the early stages of small-scale activities, but it could pose problems if they want to develop it into a large project or even an ecosystem application in the future.

So, in my view, this could be a risk from the team aspect.

From the application scenario perspective, it has developed from social interactions, but can this social scenario propel it into a formal application?

I am not confident about this; a cautionary tale is Dogecoin.

So this could be considered a risk in terms of application.

From the community perspective, its main community members are currently users from Farcaster. Although this group is quite sticky, its current scale is still too small. Will it be able to break through in the future and truly become the Web 3 social application that many people expect, thereby attracting a large number of users and forming a massive community?

This is also uncertain, so there are issues in this area as well.

Finally, from the economic model perspective, its current empowerment mainly comes from rewards and its use as a fuel token for a third-layer expansion. This token model is decent but not particularly outstanding; one could say it's just passable.

Overall, the risks I have identified are current issues that this project faces. Any one of these problems, if not handled well, could impact the project's future development.

Therefore, I prefer to continue tracking this project and observe its next steps. At this stage, I will only hold some tokens and not make regular investments.