Opinion: Will Ethereum one day become uncool?

Author: Chen Jian Jason

Compared to the sluggish price of Ethereum and Vitalik's distraction with dating, what is even more concerning and worrisome is that Ethereum's Layer 2 is entering perhaps its most critical moment, the "Zunyi Conference."

Ethereum abandoned the difficult path of sharding in favor of the simpler Layer 2. This isn't just laziness; the impossible triangle simply cannot be resolved. Thus, while Layer 2 seems smoother and more cost-effective, it has also buried the seeds for today's disputes. All debts must be repaid, and the time has come for Ethereum to settle its debts.

The Layer 2 route was initially conceived perfectly, akin to the relationship between central banks and local banks—there were no issues. Ethereum only needed to sit back and collect money, leaving the dirty and tiring work to other Layer 2s. But what if the Layer 2s are unwilling to remain Ethereum's dogs? The state apparatus can force local banks to belong to the central bank, but what can Ethereum do? Rely on Vitalik and a few elders to engage in political correctness?

Do you think Polygon is Ethereum? Is BSC Ethereum? You hesitated for a moment; probably not, right? Although they use the same wallet addresses and development languages, it seems they have little else in common with Ethereum.

Let me ask you again, do you think Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base are Ethereum? At this point, you hesitated even more; they should count, right? After all, I use ETH as gas. But what if one day they stop using ETH? Would you still consider them Ethereum? Going further, do you think Movement is Ethereum? Probably not, but they also claim to be an Ethereum Layer 2.

So the main issues brought by Layer 2 are:

1. Fragmented user experience, constantly switching chains and cross-chain transactions, which is incredibly frustrating.

2. Dilution of Ethereum's market value; every Layer 2 that issues tokens can be seen as biting off a piece of Ethereum.

3. Disunity within Ethereum. Each Layer 2 has its own agenda, supported by different interest groups, competing for TVL and users.

4. Reduced willingness to innovate. This is contrary to the common understanding that Layer 2, as a higher-performance application chain, should bear the responsibility of innovation. Why has it decreased? Because with each new Layer 2, a large batch of xxx on xxx can emerge… You know what I mean, right? When copy-pasting can make money, who would want to pursue more difficult innovations?

The ideal Layer 2 should not be a self-contained ecosystem but should serve as an application chain for a specific application! However, no one wants to just be a loyal dog; everyone wants to form factions and be the boss.

If the Layer 2 issues are not handled well, Ethereum may find itself in a situation similar to Cosmos. If it can successfully navigate through this crisis, Ethereum will be reborn from the ashes.

But sometimes, I can understand Ethereum's current predicament. Ethereum is not a company; everyone has heard this phrase, but how do we understand it? Let me express it with a more concrete example: every public chain has a marketing team or a regional ecosystem leader, right? Every year, a significant budget is allocated for marketing. Solana has it, Ton has it, and even the struggling Polkadot spent 40 million dollars on marketing last year, giving KOLs 4 million dollars (but I didn't receive any; I advise Polkadot to find me for a chat).

Have you heard of Ethereum having a marketing team? Does Ethereum have a regional head for Asia? Has Ethereum allocated tens of millions to find KOLs to promote it, or to make small videos dissing Solana? This is Ethereum's advantage, but it is also a disadvantage; it doesn't know how to create buzz and can't create buzz.

Once, I asked a major holder of BAYC why the Bored Apes were falling so badly. He said, "Because it has become less cool, and it really is quite boring now." Indeed, since the arrival of wealthy individuals like Zhu Xiaohu, who bought a few monkeys to change their avatars and flaunt themselves in Web3, the Bored Apes have shifted from symbols representing rebellious geek spirit to something else.

Will Ethereum one day also become uncool?