After the Space dialogue, Trump's approval rating unexpectedly dropped: Is Crypto in danger in the U.S.?
Polymarket data shows that Harris's winning probability has risen to 53%, leading Trump by 8%.Source: CoinWorld
Author: Web3 Scent Observation
Yesterday, the public dialogue between Trump and Musk on X Space attracted significant attention, marking Trump's latest interview. The two-hour conversation drew over 1.3 million listeners.
During this X Space dialogue, Trump and Musk discussed several topics, including the attempted shooting incident, immigration policy, praise for Musk and Tesla, and the impact of inflation on the U.S. economy. Musk also stated that he would play a role in reducing federal spending in future administrations. Unfortunately, many expected them to mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrency, but the entire conversation did not touch upon this topic at all.
The dialogue also sparked real-time betting activity on Polymarket. Data during the event showed that bettors believed there was a 65% chance "cryptocurrency" would be mentioned in the interview, with over $600,000 wagered. Another market predicted a 69% chance that "Bitcoin" would be mentioned, with about $330,000 involved. However, since these topics were not mentioned in the interview, these predictions did not materialize. Polymarket's rules state that if a prediction comes true, each share will be paid out in USDC stablecoin at $1; otherwise, the payout is zero.
With less than three months until the U.S. election voting day on November 5, the election prospects for candidates from both parties are changing significantly. Vice President Kamala Harris's support in the 2024 presidential election has surged, surpassing Trump.
Polymarket data shows that Harris's winning probability has risen to 53%, leading Trump by 8%. Since Biden's withdrawal from the race, Harris has seen her support soar as the Democratic presidential candidate, while Trump's odds have sharply declined from 70% in mid-July to 45%.
Additionally, predictions in the 2024 Popular Vote Winner poll indicate that Harris has a 78% chance of ultimately winning, while Trump only has 22%.
This trend has drawn widespread attention from the crypto market. According to analysis by Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn, if Harris wins, her crypto policy may continue the Biden administration's hostile stance towards cryptocurrencies, which would undoubtedly be unfavorable for the market.
Harris's advisory team has also hinted that she may adopt stricter regulatory measures in areas such as stablecoins. However, as of now, neither Harris nor her running mate Tim Walz has publicly discussed cryptocurrency-related topics.
On August 14, a recent research report from Bernstein indicated that if Trump wins the U.S. election in November, it would be a positive development for the cryptocurrency market, while a victory for Harris could exert pressure on the market.
Changes in the political landscape have also affected the performance of meme tokens related to Trump. As of 3:30 PM on August 14, the MAGA (TRUMP) token had dropped 1.5% in 24 hours, while the MAGA (MAGA) token fell by 2.5%.
This year, cryptocurrency has become a focal topic in the U.S. elections, and as the election approaches, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market is expected to intensify. Investors need to closely monitor political developments and their potential impact on the market, remaining cautious amid market fluctuations.
