Is there still hope for altcoins to rise in 2024? What will the market's next script look like?

One of the hot topics that many people are paying attention to today (August 13) is probably the discussion between Musk and Trump on X about Space. The entire dialogue lasted nearly two and a half hours, with over 1 million listeners. During this time, Trump talked about several topics, including previous shootings, illegal immigration, and Biden's withdrawal from the election, but the conversation between these two big names did not mention the crypto industry, which seemed to disappoint some friends a bit.

Even so, MemeCoin has successfully seized this wave of attention, and a large number of related concept MemeCoins have emerged on Pumpfun. Because Musk frequently said "Yeah" during the conversation, the related concept coin Yeah became one of the hottest concept coins. After being deployed for 30 minutes, its market cap once surged to 1.5 million dollars, but it also experienced huge fluctuations. As of the writing of this article, the market cap has fallen back to around 480,000 dollars. As shown in the figure below.

Next, the key information worth paying attention to may be the CPI data from the U.S. tomorrow (August 14). Since the interest rate cut is basically no longer in doubt, this CPI data will have a certain impact on the specific magnitude of the interest rate cut in September.

Market speculation is often based on expectations. Since the expectation of an interest rate cut has been speculated for a long time, the related impact is likely already priced in. Therefore, even if there is indeed an interest rate cut in September, we probably will not immediately welcome a bull market. Instead, the market fluctuations before and after the interest rate cut may be quite large, and while looking for new opportunities, we also need to pay attention to short-term risks.

As for how much impact the interest rate cut will have on the market later (especially in 2025), this will mainly depend on the overall economic situation at that time, and it is also possible that a larger black swan event may occur simultaneously with the interest rate cut. If we still have expectations for a bull market, we may need to patiently wait for a larger narrative to occur or for significant changes in the fundamentals.

The recent market remains relatively dull, and many friends have even shown more pessimistic emotions, but I personally will continue to remain optimistic.

In the previous article (August 11), we briefly discussed the topic of SOL through casual conversation and also touched on expectations for the bull market in 2025 through the backup account of the Huali Huawai DAO. Then, some friends left comments expressing disagreement, believing that SOL could not reach 1,000 dollars. However, I did not respond to this because I did not say that SOL would reach 1,000 dollars in the article. If you only like to read the title of the article, it might be better to just scroll through Twitter.

However, the two articles recently published by Huali Huawai have seen a significant increase in both readership and completion rates due to some handling of titles and content. Previously, the long articles that took a lot of time to write, with several thousand words of methodological sorting, had relatively few readers, averaging only around 1,000 views, and the reading rate was also poor, only about 3%. In contrast, the recent two quick articles on ETH and SOL have attracted a lot of readers, with an average reading volume of over 20,000 across all platforms (public accounts and other platforms), and since the length is relatively shorter than before, the completion rate has also increased, averaging over 40%.

This made me realize: moving forward, should I write to increase readership and completion rates, or continue to write those less-read, substantial sorting and methodology articles?

After thinking for a moment, I ultimately decided not to consider such questions. After all, I have already insisted on writing over 500 articles, and the original intention of doing this is to keep myself learning while being able to output some of my learning records, thoughts, and summaries, and then share them with those who resonate and are also interested in the long-term development of the crypto field.

As for the issue of expanding the self-media, although the number of followers of Huali Huawai has rapidly increased, and its influence has also improved to a certain extent, it seems that there are also more and more haters (I can only say that there are too many restless people in this field; recently, I have also blocked some people in the public account who like to come and curse and complain). However, I have been persuading myself to maintain inner peace and continue to keep my original intention. I will write whatever I want, and everyone can read as they please. Maintaining this state is actually quite good; being a small and beautiful (niche) self-media, and leaving other matters to fate.

In the previous article on the backup account of Huali Huawai DAO, we mainly made some script-like assumptions about the bull market based on some historical data. In this issue, we will continue to make some idealized guesses following the previous script:

• A new wave of MemeCoin frenzy will arrive in the third quarter of 2024.

• A new round of altcoin season will begin from late 2024 to early 2025.

• Bitcoin's price will reach a new ATH in the first quarter of 2025.

Of course, the above are all assumptions, merely guesses. If they align with your personal expectations, then you can still make necessary arrangements now. If you do not agree, then you can continue to remain inactive.

In previous articles by Huali Huawai, we also mentioned that even if the bull market of this cycle arrives in 2025, the duration will not be long, probably only 1 to 3 months. During this period, people may be the most FOMO and crazy, and it will also be our best phase for gradual selling.

Reviewing the past to learn anew. Next, let's revisit the overall market development and narrative changes since the beginning of this year:

1) AI Narrative

Since the beginning of this year (2024), the AI sector has continued to see a new round of increases, and this heat lasted until around March. If you bought AI project tokens like FET, RENDER, and TAO during the bear market of 2022-2023, you would have seen very good performance in terms of unrealized gains.

But if you only started buying after seeing the AI narrative heat up again after March, the outcome is predictable.

2) RWA Narrative

Next, the RWA narrative began to take over from the AI narrative. With the news from BlackRock and RWA at the end of March and early April (along with other favorable news), the RWA sector's related tokens also experienced a high market performance.

Tokens related to RWA concepts like ONDO and PENDLE reached a peak around May. At the same time, older projects like MAKER and AVAX, which are transitioning to RWA or vigorously developing RWA business, also had a new round of good performance during this period, riding the wave of RWA.

3) MemeCoin Narrative

As the RWA narrative speculation reached a peak, MemeCoin continued to take over with a new round of speculation. However, during this phase, the speculation around MemeCoins also showed a bifurcation. Established MemeCoins like DOGE and SHIB did not perform satisfactorily overall, while MemeCoins like PEPE performed better, even reaching an all-time high at the end of May.

During this period, Solana continued to establish itself as the king of MemeCoins, with the exaggerated performance of various MemeCoins on Solana attracting a lot of attention, leading to some MemeCoins experiencing hundreds or even thousands of times increases in a short period. I remember that many friends in the group were enthusiastically discussing various newly emerged MemeCoins.

We have only briefly listed the timelines of the three hottest narratives above. At the same time, the market's heat and FOMO sentiment have also driven the rapid rise and volatility of many other tokens in various sectors, but many narrative speculations were short-lived, with some even ending in less than two weeks.

Therefore, if we look back, it is easy to find that the period from March to May this year was relatively a good phase for a temporary exit window. However, many people chose to re-enter the market during this period and ended up buying at the peak.

With the first phase of this cycle's window now passed, do we still have new phase exit (which may be a break-even for some friends) opportunities?

Continuing from the topic of the previous article, if we consider it from the perspective of overall market capitalization, the current situation is not optimistic due to liquidity issues. Since May, the market has been in a downward trend. Even BTC briefly fell below the 0.618 level on August 5, and also dropped below the MA200, entering the so-called bear market price range.

Interestingly, on July 4, BTC fell below the MA200 and entered a brief bear market phase, then ten days later, it recovered above that line. On August 4, BTC again fell below the MA200, and as of now (August 13), it has not recovered. In this basic market environment, many people may be more concerned about the question: Is there still hope for altcoins?

Since the market is unpredictable, let's continue to speculate (hypothesize):

First, let's look at the TOTAL2 data, as shown in the figure below.

Based on the above figure, the ideal scenario is that by early 2025 (first quarter), the total market cap of altcoins can reach 1.2 trillion dollars or higher, and then officially start a new round of altcoin season.

If you are more conservative, then you can consider gradually selling your altcoins for a phased exit at that time. If you have a higher risk appetite, you might wait until the total market cap of altcoins exceeds 1.7 trillion dollars before considering exiting. My personal plan is to start selling altcoin positions when it approaches around 2 trillion dollars, which I have already explained and shared in previous articles by Huali Huawai.

Of course, the premise of the ideal scenario above is that BTC can break its ATH at some point in early 2025 (or simply rise above 100,000 dollars), which would put the market into a new and larger FOMO state, prompting people to re-enter the altcoin market out of fear of missing out. Market manipulators would also take the opportunity to conduct a new round of speculation to complete the high-position game with retail investors.

As we mentioned earlier, this process may last 1 to 3 months. For example, by June to July 2025, when the market reaches a certain peak, this bull market will end, and what we will see is a mess, followed by the onset of a new bear market cycle in early 2025.

If the above situation does not occur, then if you express pessimism about the market, I will also agree at that time. Of course, all of the above are just guesses and scripts, not specific trading guidance. We are merely providing a different perspective for entertainment purposes.

In the long term, Bitcoin will definitely reach 100,000 dollars.

Looking at a longer cycle, we may have the opportunity to see Bitcoin reach 1,000,000 dollars in our lifetime.

As for what you will do now, I don't know and do not provide specific advice, but I personally will continue to hold onto Bitcoin.