Can Bitcoin successfully stabilize above the $100,000 mark in the future and drive the altcoin market?
Last week, influenced by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike policy, the Japanese stock market plummeted and rebounded sharply the next day. This extreme volatility triggered a chain reaction in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin's price once dropped by more than 25%, leading many to question whether it had entered a bear market phase.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin fell below $58,000 yesterday, hitting a low of $57,596. However, Bitcoin did not continue to decline, and the current price (as of August 13, 16:00) has risen to $59,170. In the short term, there is a possibility that Bitcoin may test the $53,000 level again, after which it could gather momentum for a rebound. If significant positive news emerges in the near term, Bitcoin is expected to break through $62,000 and challenge the historical high of $70,000 again.
From a technical perspective, the formation of a doji candlestick in Bitcoin's weekly chart, accompanied by an increase in trading volume as Bitcoin approaches the trendline under a bullish flag pattern, indicates that market confidence in a price rebound is strengthening. This may suggest that by September, Bitcoin could have the opportunity to rebound to the upper trendline of the flag, around $66,500.
BTC weekly candlestick chart, source: TradingView
Since bullish flags are generally viewed as a continuation pattern, if Bitcoin's price closes strongly above the upper trendline of the flag, it could trigger a new round of upward momentum. According to technical analysis, the price could rise to a height comparable to the previous upward trend. The combination of the bullish flag, doji candlestick, and bullish divergence signals may drive Bitcoin's price to break historical highs in the coming months.
The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has exceeded 1 million, as whales accumulate Bitcoin again
Currently, the number of addresses holding more than 1 Bitcoin has surpassed the 1 million mark. This data indicates that the confidence of Bitcoin holders is gradually increasing. The strategy for Bitcoin in the first half of the year can be summarized as "building high walls and storing grain," waiting for the arrival of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, and anticipating a market explosion that will allow all investors to reap rewards.
At the same time, Bitcoin whales (large holders of Bitcoin) have also begun to accumulate Bitcoin again, further supporting the bullish reversal signal for Bitcoin.
According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC are withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges at the highest rate since 2015. In the past 30 days, approximately 73,350 BTC have flowed out of these whales' exchange balances.
Net position changes of Bitcoin whale trading volume to and from exchanges, source: Glassnode
The market typically views this surge in Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges as a bullish signal, as it indicates that investors are more inclined to hold Bitcoin for the long term rather than selling it for other cryptocurrencies or fiat currencies.
It is worth noting that the last time Bitcoin whales withdrew large amounts of Bitcoin from exchanges was in 2015, when Bitcoin's price was around $220. Subsequently, Bitcoin experienced a massive bull market, eventually pushing the price to $20,000 in December 2017. This historical trend may be repeating itself, bringing more optimistic expectations for the Bitcoin market in the coming months.
Arthur Hayes: BTC must break $70,000 and ETH must break $4,000 to welcome altcoin season
On August 13, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest blog post that with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen planning to inject market liquidity by issuing $301 billion to $1.05 trillion in treasury bonds, a strong bull market, including cryptocurrencies, may arrive by the end of this year.
Hayes predicts that Bitcoin's price will rebound sharply by the end of the year, possibly reaching $100,000. He pointed out that the altcoin market will only become active again after Bitcoin and Ethereum prices break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively.
Arthur Hayes suggests starting to allocate crypto assets in September and plans to partially cash out during the market rebound, transferring funds to more stable investments to cope with the uncertainties of the U.S. elections. Hayes also predicts that a new round of crypto bull market will arrive in 2025, driven by economic stimulus policies in China and the U.S., potentially pushing Bitcoin's price towards the $1 million target.
Altcoins typically exhibit more volatility than Bitcoin, but in this cycle, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been supported by structural buying in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the U.S. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen corrections since April, they have avoided the severe downturns in the altcoin market.
The altcoin season will only return after Bitcoin and Ethereum break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively. The price of Solana may also exceed $250, but considering its relative market capitalization, its rise will not impact the overall market as much as Bitcoin and Ethereum. As the liquidity of the dollar drives the rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum towards the end of the year, it will lay the foundation for the return of the altcoin market.
