The cryptocurrency market lacks supportive hotspots in the short term, rational investment or buying on dips can be considered | Matrixport Market Observation

Market Trends

In the past week, the market entered a rebound and repair phase, with BTC reaching a weekly high of $62,745 on August 9 and stabilizing above $60,000 during the week. Starting from the evening of August 11, BTC entered a downward channel, briefly hitting a low of $57,642, with a maximum decline of 8% during the week. As of the publication of this article, BTC is fluctuating, attempting to return to the key level of $60,000. ETH is showing a trend of oscillating upward but is slightly fatigued, peaking at $2,750, representing a 30% increase from the lowest point on August 5. (The above data is sourced from Binance Spot, August 13, 15:00)

The market lacks hot support, and mainstream coins are experiencing weak upward momentum. BTC's volatility remains at a relatively high level, coupled with a decrease in ETH's on-chain activity; in the short term, the crypto market is still primarily trending sideways.

Recommendations to Watch

The dollar shows signs of weakness, and the Fed's rate cut may be lower than expected

Recently, various economic data from the U.S. has fallen short of expectations, and market sentiment regarding the risk of a U.S. economic recession continues to grow. Based on the stabilization support for the dollar's price, the Fed may not loosen monetary policy as aggressively as other central banks. BBH analyst Elias Haddad stated that this week's U.S. economic data will prompt traders to reassess their bets on the Fed's easing policy. The CPI data released this week is the second-to-last CPI report before the Fed's September interest rate decision.

Polls show Harris's approval rating exceeds Trump's, election outlook falls into uncertainty

Recent data from Polymarket indicates that the market expectation for Kamala Harris to win the U.S. election exceeds that of Trump by 6 percentage points. The proportion of users betting on Kamala Harris winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election is 52%, while those betting on Trump is 46%, with total betting funds exceeding $580 million. Additionally, a survey by CNBC and Generation Lab shows that Harris's popularity is rising among young Americans. In a survey regarding the most capable candidate to improve the economy, 41% chose Harris, while 40% selected Trump.

Previously, the market generally believed that Trump's presidency would favor the development of cryptocurrencies, and he recently proposed including BTC in the U.S. strategic reserves at a Bitcoin conference.

Japan will hold a special meeting on August 23, possibly discussing another rate hike for the yen

Odaily information indicates that Japan's parliament will hold a special meeting in the lower house committee on August 23 to discuss the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike issue, possibly requesting Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to attend. The global liquidity turmoil caused by the yen's rate hike last week has already led to multiple market crashes, and the Nikkei has now returned to pre-crash levels. If Japan continues to raise interest rates, it is not ruled out that large Japanese companies may face more economic challenges, increasing uncertainties in the stock market.

Sun Yuchen's involvement in the WBTC project sparks community discussions on its decentralization and security

Recently, Sun Yuchen's entry into the WBTC project has generated significant market discussion and sparked community debates about WBTC's decentralization and security. Sun Yuchen tweeted that his participation in the WBTC project is a strategic move, and he does not control the private keys of the WBTC reserves nor can he move any BTC reserves. It is reported that on the 13th, Sun Yuchen will participate in an X Space discussion on topics such as WBTC.

Investment Layout

The impact of macroeconomic factors on crypto assets is deepening, but their risk asset attributes remain. With the easing of systematic fund selling pressure in U.S. stocks and a wave of stock buybacks, it is possible that U.S. stocks will enter a brief accumulation phase in August. Although it is currently unknown whether crypto assets will follow the footsteps of U.S. stocks, with the SEC's increasingly strict regulations, it is recommended that investors make rational short-term investments and consider adjusting positions on dips.

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Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.