Will SOL exceed $1000 in the bull market of 2025? When will the big bull market arrive?

A few days ago (August 7), we published an article through the backup account of Huali Huawai DAO, making a simple guess from the perspective of market capitalization, believing that the highest price of SOL in this bull market might reach $394--$506.

Then, some friends left comments expressing different opinions. Some individuals considered SOL to be worthless, while others believed that SOL would at least rise to $1000.

For any matter, different people will naturally have different viewpoints and opinions. Anyway, speech is relatively free, and wallets belong to individuals. The key is not what others say, but what you will do yourself.

Making accurate predictions about prices is very difficult because the results you obtain may vary based on different perspectives and dimensions. Moreover, we have always emphasized that the market is unpredictable. If you can accept the market's ups and downs, then if you are optimistic, go ahead and buy; if not, then don't buy. Trading is essentially that simple. As for how much money can be made in this process, it also depends on a person's luck, the strategies they implement, and their personal understanding.

So far in this bull market, it can be said that SOL is almost the only altcoin that has maintained relative strength and sustained popularity throughout the entire bull market cycle. Additionally, Solana's dominant position in the MemeCoin sector is one of the main factors driving this trend. It is not an exaggeration to say that Solana currently seems to have become the largest crypto casino, with MemeCoin becoming a form of gambling, and SOL becoming a demand chip. The more people gamble, the more favorable it will be for SOL's price.

Here, let's take two more perspectives to look at SOL:

- Return on Investment

From the return on investment from January to August this year, we can see that SOL is even leading the altcoin king ETH. As shown in the figure below.

- Relative Valuation of Market Capitalization

If we calculate the relative valuation of the current price of SOL compared to the market capitalization of ETH, we can find that SOL's relative valuation is about 4.4 times that of ETH. As shown in the figure below.

As long as there is a difference in relative valuation, from a speculative perspective, SOL still seems to have considerable room for speculation and hype.

In addition to the above data aspects, we can also take a look at the development of SOL:

1. Expansion of Narrative

In the previous article (August 9), we mentioned that although Solana is currently mainly relying on the hype of MemeCoin, upcoming hot sectors like AI and DePin can also be (potentially) leveraged for further hype.

Through some publicly available research data, we can actually find that most of the currently developing DePIN x AI projects have prioritized the Solana network. Currently, there are about 78 DePIN projects on the Solana network, leading the way. As shown in the figure below.

This means that if the narrative hype of MemeCoin declines, Solana can continue to hype through popular narratives like DePIN and AI.

2. SOL ETF

A few days ago (August 8), Brazil approved the world's first spot ETF based on Solana. This product will reflect the CME CF Solana Dollar Reference Rate, which is a benchmark rate designed to provide a reliable value of Solana in USD. As shown in the figure below.

At the same time, the U.S. has also made continuous progress regarding Solana ETFs. For example, in June of this year, investment firms VanEck and 21Shares applied to the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) for a spot Solana ETF. In July, CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) also submitted the 19b-4s form for the Solana ETF to the SEC. These signs basically indicate that, similar to the BTC ETF and ETH ETF, the approval of the U.S. SOL ETF seems to be just a matter of time.

In summary, if you are optimistic about a project, you can always find some reasons to support that optimism. If you are not optimistic about a project, you will also find some reasons to justify that. As I said, the results you obtain may vary based on different perspectives and dimensions. The key is not what others say, but how you see it. You need to have your own judgment; others' analyses or opinions are merely providing you with an open mindset or methodology.

As for whether SOL will exceed $1000 in this bull market as some predict, I don't know. But as mentioned in our previous article (August 9) about ETH: only children make choices; adults only look at benefits. If you are torn between buying ETH or SOL, then just buy a bit of both.

Alright, now that we understand some principles, the question arises: Can we still buy SOL now?

If you have been following since last year and currently do not hold any SOL, I suggest you don't buy anything. Even if SOL may have some potential for growth later, you might still lose money. If you are new to this field and not very familiar with it, I do not recommend rushing to make trades to make money. It might be more prudent to learn and observe first before considering trading. If you must buy something, I still only recommend buying BTC and holding it. If you make money, it's yours; if you lose money, don't come to me.

Next, we will continue to share our views on the market. As for how you should operate, I won't make any specific suggestions.

History does not repeat itself, but it sometimes rhymes.

If someone has experienced the last bull market, let's recall the situation back then. Remember that after the COVID-19 pandemic, BTC experienced over 400 days of overall upward movement, during which altcoins had relatively small increases. Then, in May 2021, BTC began to enter a consolidation phase, testing the highs several times before starting to plummet. As shown in the figure below.

The script for this bull market is basically similar. Since March 2023, BTC has been in an overall upward trend, lasting nearly 400 days until March 2024. Then BTC began to consolidate and test the highs, experiencing several failures before starting to plummet, even dropping to around $49,000 a few days ago (August 5).

If the market continues to follow this script, BTC may continue to consolidate in the current range for a while, and it is also possible to test lower levels, followed by a significant and rapid rise to reach a new ATH. Meanwhile, some altcoins will also enter the relay and welcome the last wave of explosive opportunities.

If this world is indeed a huge makeshift stage, then performing according to the script is the best choice.

Of course, the above is merely a hypothesis based on historical data. The market is unpredictable; perhaps the script may undergo some modifications that catch people off guard, such as BTC not consolidating for too long and directly surging up?

But even if we are about to welcome a genuine bull market, it is estimated that its duration will not be too long. Compared to previous bull markets, there are too many narratives and projects in this round, and liquidity has fundamentally changed. The so-called rotation of sectors will become faster and more difficult to control.

So far in this cycle, we have roughly estimated that the hottest AI narrative has lasted about 150 days, after which MemeCoin began to dominate. Although many new narratives have emerged during this period, such as the BTC ecosystem (inscriptions, runes, etc.), TG Bots, ERC404 (Pandora), etc., these narratives have relatively short durations, with some ending in less than two weeks.

As for when the bull market will arrive, I don't know. It may start next month (September to November), or perhaps in the first half of next year (March to June), or even in the second half of next year…

Therefore, in the next 300 days, if we really have the opportunity to welcome a brief bull market, be sure to remember to take necessary profits, because the altcoins you hold may not give you many opportunities (time) to exit, and the potential gains may not be that significant. If you still hold the mindset that the altcoins you are holding will have a 100-fold increase, your risk factor will become very high.

As for myself, I will continue to maintain my previous plan:

- Regarding BTC

When BTC approaches $100,000, I will sell in batches, and whatever I can't sell will be stored in a cold wallet and left untouched. If BTC does not reach around $100,000 in this bull market, I will continue to hold it. At worst, I can hold it for a few more years until the next bull market; this doesn't significantly affect me.

- Regarding Altcoins

As for the few altcoins I hold, when the total market capitalization of altcoins reaches around $2 trillion, I will consider starting to liquidate in batches. If it doesn't reach that, it's fine, because the few altcoins I bought and held in this cycle have already undergone reduction operations, and currently, they are at zero cost. Although I haven't realized profits yet (just floating gains), there is no pressure to hold. I have shared related insights in previous articles on Huali Huawai.