The Great God said about cryptocurrency: With the US bonds down 8.6, the fear index rises. Has the price of cryptocurrency successfully hit the bottom?

Summarizing the reasons for yesterday's sharp decline:

1. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 40 basis points, oil prices plummeted, and the stock market continued to decline. The VIX index, which symbolizes market panic, rose by 25% on Friday. The VIX index reflects the market's concerns about future stock market movements, and investors typically view the VIX index as a contrarian indicator.
2. There was an outflow of funds from ETFs, with Bitcoin experiencing a net outflow of $237 million on Friday, while Ethereum's fund flow remained neutral.
3. In the U.S. presidential election, Harris's support in polls has surpassed Trump's, which is extremely unfavorable for the crypto market. Although the Democratic Party is less hostile towards cryptocurrencies, the overall stock market and crypto market tend to support Trump.
   After Bitcoin fell below $50,000 twice on Monday (the 5th), the market was initially concerned that Bitcoin would continue to decline with the opening of the U.S. stock market in the evening. However, the market often surprises, and after 21:30 last night, it began to rally, reaching a peak of around $56,368. As of the time of writing, the price is quoted at $55,558, with a decline of about 3% in the last 24 hours.
   Ethereum's trend is similar to Bitcoin's, also starting to rally after the U.S. stock market opened, peaking at around $2,543. As of the time of writing, the price is quoted at $2,493, with a decline of about 4.5% in the last 24 hours.
   Bitcoin 4-hour chart
   
   First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the current price is operating at the lower band and is rebounding from the lower band, showing signs of recovery. The Bollinger Bands are wide open, indicating significant volatility recently. The price rebounding from the lower band and approaching the middle band suggests some rebound momentum; however, it has not yet broken through the middle band. If the price breaks through the middle band, it may further approach the upper band. If it does not break through the middle band, it will consolidate below the middle band or continue to decline.
   Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the KDJ three-line values are around 50, showing signs of rising from a low position, indicating that bullish strength is gradually increasing. If the K-line value breaks above the D-line value to form a golden cross, there is room for further upward movement in the short term. However, if the K-line value crosses below the D-line value to form a death cross, the price will weaken again.
   Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line show a tendency to converge, and the MACD green histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that the current bearish strength is weakening, which may lead to a short-term rebound. If the DIF line can cross above the DEA line to form a golden cross, it will further confirm the rebound trend. However, if a golden cross is not formed, the price will continue in a weak state.
   Bitcoin 1-hour chart
   
   First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the price is fluctuating between the middle band and the upper band, gradually approaching the upper band. The price is above the middle band, indicating a bullish market sentiment in the short term. The current price is oscillating between the middle band and the upper band; if it can break through the upper band, it may rise further. If it is blocked and falls back, it may return to the vicinity of the middle band for consolidation.
   Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the KDJ three-line values are hovering in the overbought zone, showing signs of a high-level pullback, indicating a risk of adjustment or retracement in the short term. If the K-line value crosses below the D-line value to form a death cross, the possibility of a pullback will further increase.
   Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are operating below the 0 axis and are close to parallel, indicating that the price faces pullback pressure in the short term. If the DIF line crosses below the DEA line to form a death cross, it can confirm the beginning of a short-term pullback. The MACD red histogram is gradually shortening, which also indicates a weakening of upward momentum.
   In summary, Bitcoin shows rebound momentum on the 4H level, especially as the MACD and KDJ indicators indicate an increase in bullish strength. However, attention should be paid to whether the price can break through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and whether the MACD indicator can form a golden cross, as these are important signals for further bullishness. Bitcoin shows some upward momentum on the 1H level, but various indicators suggest a risk of short-term adjustment. The upper band of the Bollinger Bands may become a short-term resistance level, and the price may be blocked and pull back here. The weakening momentum of the MACD indicator and the high-level pullback of the KDJ indicator also support this.
   Based on the above, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
   Short Bitcoin around 56,550, targeting 55,220-53,890, with a stop loss at 57,200.

Written at: (2024-08-06, 13:00)
(By - Master Says Coin)