Harris is neck and neck with Trump in the election polls
A poll analysis by the Financial Times shows that Harris has revitalized the Democratic campaign over the course of more than a week, tying with Trump in the polls.Author: John Burn-Murdoch, Oliver Roeder
Source: FT Chinese
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (left) and Donald Trump. Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the election, Harris has made progress among nearly all demographic groups.
According to an analysis of the latest data by the Financial Times, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has tied with former President Donald Trump in polls within less than a week of starting her presidential campaign.
President Joe Biden performed poorly in a debate against Trump a few weeks ago, dropped out of the race on July 21, and immediately expressed support for Harris. According to the Financial Times' average statistics of poll results, she has nearly erased the Democratic Party's disadvantage in national polls relative to her opponents since then.
While Biden was trailing Trump by 3 percentage points on the day he dropped out of the presidential race, Harris and the former president are currently neck and neck in national support.
The U.S. election is ultimately decided by the Electoral College, which can also be said to be determined by a small number of winner-takes-all "battleground" states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In all six key battlegrounds, Harris's recent polling is 1 to 3 percentage points higher than Biden's before he dropped out a week ago. When Biden exited the race, he was trailing by two percentage points or more in all six states, while Harris is now tied with Trump at 50-50 in Michigan and Wisconsin, and within one percentage point of Trump in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Statistically, all states are in a dead heat.
According to comparisons from numerous polling organizations, Harris has made progress among nearly all demographic groups since Biden's withdrawal. In particular, her support has increased among Black, Latino, young voters, female voters, and independents. Only one group—voters aged 50 and older—has seen a slight decline in support.
Predictive traders closely following this competition have noted these changes. Harris's prices on the prediction markets Polymarket and PredictIt have surpassed Biden's prices before the debate, although they still consider her slightly behind Trump, whose prices surged after the assassination attempt on July 13.
With less than 100 days until the election, Harris has injected significant enthusiasm into a previously demoralized Democratic Party.
In this crucial election where voter turnout is vital, Harris's candidacy has also revitalized enthusiasm among Democratic voters. The Financial Times' analysis of polls shows that among those who voted for Biden in 2020, 73% expressed "excitement" about voting for Harris, while only 37% felt excited about voting for Biden again. Additionally, the proportion of Biden voters from 2020 who plan not to vote this time has dropped from 10% to 3%.
Accompanying the rekindled enthusiasm is generous fundraising. Harris's campaign team announced last Sunday that they raised $200 million in less than a week, two-thirds of which came from first-time donations.
