Trump Bitcoin Conference Speech and Analysis of the Current Presidential Election Situation

1. Trump Participates in Bitcoin Conference to Appeal to Swing Voters, but the Crypto Market Responds Weakly Over the Weekend, Leading to a Rise on Monday

In the early hours of July 28, UTC+8, former U.S. President and presidential candidate Donald Trump appeared at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville and delivered a speech lasting nearly an hour. Although it was delayed by an hour, the atmosphere remained very enthusiastic. Trump fully recognized BTC as a scarce asset and a safe-haven asset, asserting that BTC will surpass gold to become the world's largest asset class in the future. He stated that the U.S. must maintain its status as a superpower in cryptocurrency and emphasized that if elected, he would fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on his first day in office for hindering the development of cryptocurrency through compliance measures.

Trump compared himself to cryptocurrency supporters, implying that both he and the crypto industry are victims of establishment manipulation ("election manipulation" and "crypto regulation"), and positioned himself against Harris, stressing her strong opposition to cryptocurrency. He also clearly opposed the views of some Federal Reserve officials regarding the "threat of dollar stablecoins to the dollar's status" (see the author's other report "The Federal Reserve is Gradually Shifting Towards Balance and External Consistency, Its Potential Attitude Towards Cryptocurrency Remains Negative"), promising to establish a presidential advisory committee on cryptocurrency if elected, and made a significant statement that he would recognize BTC as an official strategic reserve asset of the U.S. government, and his administration would never sell BTC . Additionally, Trump emphasized the importance of electrical infrastructure for the development of AI. After the speech over the weekend, the BTC market price did not react as positively as it did after Trump's assassination, and it only began to show a certain degree of increase on Monday morning Beijing time. Clearly, for Trump, who failed to implement several commitments during his previous term and whose policy direction has fluctuated multiple times, the "action" of an assassination is far more persuasive than verbal promises.

Trump's speech is seen as an attempt to win over cryptocurrency enthusiasts, continuing his friendly stance towards the cryptocurrency world in this election. Five years ago, Trump had also clearly opposed crypto, but this time, his election fundraising includes millions of dollars in crypto assets. The shift in Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrency in this election reflects not so much a genuine recognition of cryptocurrency but rather the growing social influence of cryptocurrency, and the fact that Trump's electoral prospects may not be as favorable as he and his team expected, leading him to strive for this segment of voters even if the outcome is uncertain.

2. Has Trump Become a Bit "Floaty" After the Assassination? This Statement May Be a Remedial Attempt, Continuing His Strategy to Attract Cryptocurrency User Support

After Trump's assassination, due to his excellent on-the-spot response, he was unanimously regarded by all mainstream media and internet public opinion as having a firm grip on the situation. However, recent data shows that Harris and Trump are very close in the polls, currently in a deadlock. According to polling data, Trump's lead over Harris is very slight, nearly neck and neck, with IPSOS polling data indicating that Harris has already taken a 2% lead. Multiple polls show that support for Harris among non-white voters has increased, and enthusiasm among Democrats for this election has also significantly risen. In several key swing states, the support rates for both candidates are very close.

Although there have been many voices questioning the above polling data (for example, the sampling method of the IPSOS poll has been widely criticized), and historically, polling data has not always been very reliable, the data still reflects that Trump's electoral situation after Biden was pressured to withdraw may not be as smooth as he imagined.

I believe Trump's recent "missteps" include but are not limited to:

• Is Vance really a good campaign partner? Both are representatives of MAGA, both are white, and their "personas" overlap somewhat, which does not provide the complementary effect seen with Obama and Biden (Obama attracted voters of color and handled domestic affairs, while Biden handled foreign affairs) or Biden and Harris (Biden handled practical matters, while Harris attracted minorities, women, and people of color). Vance has also been questioned for his indecisiveness and dishonesty; in his famous work "Hillbilly Elegy," he emphasized that the tragedy of rural Americans is their own problem, yet now he blames Chinese trade dumping for taking jobs from the Rust Belt. Vance is too young, and his appointment as vice president could provoke strong dissatisfaction from other establishment figures in the Republican Party (like DeSantis). Compared to Harris's potential vice presidential candidate Mark Kelly (from a working-class background, a former Navy fighter pilot who executed the last mission of the Endeavour space shuttle), Vance appears much less impressive.

• The recently proposed Ukraine-Russia plan seems somewhat naive; the idea of the Ukrainian army replacing U.S. troops to ensure Western European defense is pure nonsense, especially since Russia, which currently holds the battlefield initiative, is even less likely to relinquish its occupied territories in Eastern Ukraine. Trump, lacking political experience, was found to be completely unfamiliar with diplomacy during his previous term, and his entire diplomatic team was quite unstable, leading to a complete fallout with Vice President Pence, who was in charge of foreign affairs.

In contrast, Biden has been deeply involved in U.S. diplomacy since the peak of the Cold War as a senator. Biden was one of the first members of Congress to visit China (in 1979), responsible for negotiating the U.S.-Soviet SALT II treaty, and has extensive diplomatic experience and connections, especially with Netanyahu for nearly 40 years, and has had decades of involvement in Ukraine (Biden has publicly boasted about his deep control over Ukrainian domestic affairs, with his son having multiple investments in Ukraine). He is personally one of the most authoritative experts on U.S. foreign policy since Kissinger. Even though Biden has shown severe symptoms of Alzheimer's disease, as the last generation of Cold War politicians, he has still demonstrated a shrewd and seasoned approach to issues like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine, maximizing U.S. national interests, something Trump's team is completely incapable of.

Trump's current advantages may stem more from the halo effect of surviving an assassination attempt and the fact that his opponent is simply underperforming:

• Harris is embroiled in rumors of "climbing the ranks," and as a female political figure, she pales in comparison to Hillary and Pelosi;

• As vice president, she has achieved nothing in four years; the only task Biden assigned her, border control, has been a complete disaster;

• As a woman of color, she actually finds it difficult to increase support among people of color and minorities because her ecological niche overlaps with Obama's;

• Before serving as vice president, Harris lacked federal-level political experience, and her connections were limited to California. She does not possess the powerful connections accumulated by Biden over nearly half a century as a senator, making it impossible for her to compete for Rust Belt workers' votes. These high-turnout voter bases are expected to fall entirely into the hands of MAGA's old white male Trump, which were key to Biden's turnaround in the key swing state of Arizona four years ago (thanks to union connections and a close relationship with the McCain family, Biden has a strong ability to siphon votes from these bases). The following image shows Biden visiting the late McCain's memorial during his 2023 trip to Vietnam and paying tribute to him, commemorating their decades-long friendship.

However, currently, the Democratic Party is experiencing a generational transition, and Harris is the optimal choice made by various behind-the-scenes power brokers (Obama, the Clintons, and Pelosi) based on their interests. After Biden was pressured to withdraw, he quickly reached a cooperation agreement with Harris, with whom he has historically had a poor relationship, to support her (the author quips: the elderly man with Alzheimer's is quite pitiful; his excellent eldest son passed away early, and his youngest son is a troublemaker, and he is worried sick about his son not going to jail). In recent years, the Democratic Party's electoral organization capabilities have been significantly better than those of the Republican Party, and whether Trump's current advantages can be maintained remains to be seen.

3. Trump's Statements Have Had a Delayed Positive Effect on the Cryptocurrency Market, and Cryptocurrency Users in Swing States May Become a Key Factor in Trump's Electoral Prospects

The cryptocurrency market reacted weakly to Trump's statements after the Bitcoin conference, possibly due to the timing of his speech coinciding with a weekend of low trading volume. Based on the experience of a significant rebound in the cryptocurrency market after Trump's previous assassination attempt, the impact of his remarks on the crypto market may only become fully apparent after the U.S. market opens on Monday (although cryptocurrency exchanges do not close, the trading volume is generally more active during the early hours of the U.S. market). On Monday morning Beijing time, the market did respond to Trump's statements before the U.S. market opened, with Binance BTC spot prices rising over 3% in 24 hours.

Trump's complete shift towards supporting cryptocurrency is primarily aimed at winning additional votes in swing states. There are seven generally recognized swing states in the U.S. (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona), which are the real "battlefields" that require effort under the Electoral College and winner-take-all mechanism. Among them, Pennsylvania and Ohio are the most important. According to a survey conducted in 2023 by Morning Consult commissioned by Coinbase's Stand with Crypto campaign, there are over 52 million cryptocurrency users in the U.S. (defined as those who use cryptocurrency to purchase goods or services, hold cryptocurrency, or use cryptocurrency for transfers), accounting for about 20% of the U.S. population, with about one-sixth residing in one of the aforementioned seven swing states. In swing states, 18% of voters hold cryptocurrency, constituting a significant voting force.

The Federal Reserve's two household surveys, SHED and SDCDC (conducted by USC), also collected data on cryptocurrency usage, as shown in the following images. In the 2022 cohort, SDCPC conducted a household sampling survey of over 4,761 respondents. SHED did not conduct a separate systematic sampling but used IPSOS's existing panel sample. The results regarding cryptocurrency usage from the two surveys are shown in the following images. The Federal Reserve's two surveys are relatively more conservative, indicating that the proportion of cryptocurrency users is about 10% nationwide, but this is still a substantial number, and it is expected that this figure has increased compared to 2021 and 2022. Therefore, Trump's friendly statements towards cryptocurrency are likely to help him gain a significant advantage in swing states.

At the same time, cryptocurrency enthusiasts may be more inclined to participate in voting and strongly favor candidates who are friendly towards cryptocurrency. The strong swing nature and inclination, combined with the large base of the cryptocurrency population, may indicate that the cryptocurrency demographic has become a crucial factor in the U.S. presidential election.

Voter turnout has always been an important aspect of U.S. election research. American voters may be the most burdened voter group in the world, with the party primaries for presidential elections already being quite complex (candidates and pledged delegates, national convention delegates). In the formal election, voters must not only choose a presidential candidate but also select electors from their state, not to mention a long list of candidates for various levels of federal government, which places immense pressure on voter turnout. It is generally believed that individuals with higher incomes and education levels tend to have higher voter turnout rates, and these demographics may overlap significantly with cryptocurrency users.

According to Morning Consult data, crypto voters seem to be more bipartisan: 35% are Democrats, 34% are Republicans, and 31% are independents, indicating that they are more swing-oriented, have "united front value," and 90% of cryptocurrency holders in swing states say they will participate in voting, with 55% stating they would never vote for a candidate who does not support cryptocurrency. Trump's all-in Crypto statement is precisely aimed at this segment of voters who possess crucial characteristics such as being swing-oriented, having a strong desire to vote, and loyalty to cryptocurrency—after all, even just 100,000 votes in a swing state could very well determine the outcome of the entire election.

The emerging cryptocurrency issue, compared to classic topics such as U.S.-China relations, the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, healthcare reform, and border control, still needs to be observed for its impact on the U.S. election and Trump's electoral prospects, and it may exceed market and observer expectations.

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