A comprehensive overview of a thousand Solana "smart wallets": Who is making a fortune? What can we learn from it?

Written by: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

Recently, the trading difficulty of Meme tokens in the Solana ecosystem has gradually increased, and the number of "Golden Dogs" has decreased. However, in such an environment, there is still a group of "smart wallets" that are making significant profits. Which addresses are still "printing money," what trading characteristics do they possess, and what indicators are the key to success?

In this article, Odaily has compiled and summarized data on 27 popular, high market-cap Meme tokens' top holding addresses, totaling 1080 wallet addresses, to answer the above questions. Among them:

• Market Cap: Greater than $1 million, including a few tokens over $10 million (rocky) and over $100 million (BILLY);
• Top Addresses: The top 40 holding addresses for each token, with each address having profits ranging from thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars on the corresponding token;
• Data Source: Mainly from GMGN, with some win rate data from cielo.

Preprocessing and Scoring Algorithm

This section details the sample processing methods, statistical dimensions, and scoring algorithms. Readers who only want to understand the conclusions can directly refer to the next chapter.

Preprocessing

The following processing was performed on the 1080 top wallet addresses:

• LP addresses and exchange addresses (e.g., MEXC, Gate.io, etc.) were excluded;
• Duplicate addresses (the same address appearing in multiple high market-cap tokens) were removed;
• Addresses that have not purchased any tokens in the last 30 days were excluded;
• Addresses with an absolute profit of less than $10 in the last 30 days were excluded (due to significant conflict with the subsequent evaluation system, they are not included);
• Addresses for which both GMGN and cielo could not calculate the win rate were temporarily excluded.

After processing, 541 wallet addresses remained, evaluated based on the following dimensions:

Statistical Dimensions

Wallets were evaluated based on win rate, stability, and profitability, calculated through the following six dimensions:

1. 30-day wallet win rate;
2. Average profit per purchase (30-day profit ÷ 30-day purchase count);
3. Average profit per sale (30-day profit ÷ 30-day sale count);
4. Total profit amount;
5. Absolute value of the top three profits as a percentage of total profit (the higher the percentage, the less stable the profit, resulting in a lower score. It may also indicate that a single token has high profits while the rest are losses, leading to a low total profit);
6. Absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profit (the higher the percentage, the greater the drawdown, resulting in a lower score);

Score Calculation Method

Z-Score (standard score) was used to calculate scores for the six indicators above, with each indicator distributed within the [0, 1] range, thus the highest score will be 6 points.

Who is Making Huge Profits?

After processing and calculating using the above methods, the highest score was 4.85 points. This address traded only 42 times in the last 30 days, with a win rate of 100%, a 30-day profit of $106,000, and a total profit of $436,000, with the three largest losses totaling only $8,000.

The lowest score was 1.1 points, with this address trading 29 times in 30 days, a win rate of 0%, a 30-day loss of $38,000, and the highlight being the three largest profits totaling $40,000, but the three largest losses totaled $38,000.

Characteristics of the Top Ten Experts

The average data for the top ten addresses based on comprehensive scores is as follows:

1. 30-day wallet win rate: 63.55% (the average for the next 90 is 63.58%)
2. Average profit per purchase: $4,717 (the average for the next 90 is $623)
3. Average profit per sale: $4,090 (the average for the next 90 is $628)
4. Total profit amount: $980,000 (the average for the next 90 is $279,000);
5. Absolute value of the top three profits as a percentage of total profit: 90.8% (the average for the next 90 is 90.67%)
6. Absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profit: 11.07% (the average for the next 90 is 11.62%)

It can be concluded that the strength of the top 100 players is quite similar, with the top 10 experts having only a slight advantage in drawdown control. In cases where other data are similar, the differences in indicators 2 and 3 for addresses ranked 11-100 are mainly due to the relatively small amounts purchased each time, resulting in lower scores.

The top ten addresses are:

6FNbu3i6vpigXMatC6SyWKibUAdJyyX8nM8WDtZCNcEz

6xUL8CUfV1fzd3UQoDBs7agWNXpwyE5q56css1wHNFFU

4J5rDTvRbzjuKkB4B9rvNEvDz6f1BEBzUVT5mdctKHoT

9v6RGY46wf672PtpYMxCJ1nvrVTrukUDn1AjE634rvCf

GpNbukV5nggkJfsEEbKrJaZkdgYcNWCAaD91Mi4MmGQi

DNfuF1L62WWyW3pNakVkyGGFzVVhj4Yr52jSmdTyeBHm

FTg1gqW7vPm4kdU1LPM7JJnizbgPdRDy2PitKw6mY27j

69ngexW9UkgRp5KFjLpaK9XNSCxUFmps6jYmqhK3q6m9

7XgBprwnRfFHd287pnNQj4AZ6Yb9QE5pJ6ChQ3zhsGpJ

4Be9CvxqHW6BYiRAxW9Q3xu1ycTMWaL5z8NX4HR3ha7t

What are the Differences Between Ranks 101-200?

The average data for wallet users ranked 101 to 200 is as follows:

1. 30-day wallet win rate: 45%
2. Average profit per purchase: $317
3. Average profit per sale: $425
4. Total profit amount: $129,000
5. Absolute value of the top three profits as a percentage of total profit: 145%
6. Absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profit: 25%

It is evident that there are significant differences across all six dimensions, with the most notable differences being in indicator 2 "average profit per purchase" and indicator 6 loss percentage, which may indicate that in the absence of sufficient win rates, there is a greater eagerness to make purchases, leading to insufficient profits and amplified drawdowns.

What Did the Bottom Ten Do?

• 30-day wallet win rate: 17%
• Average profit per purchase: -$10,797
• Average profit per sale: -$23,547
• Total profit amount: -$146,000
• Absolute value of the top three profits as a percentage of total profit: 2092%
• Absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profit: 642%

Notably, among the ten addresses with the lowest scores, three addresses had maximum profits of $694,000, $403,000, and $150,000 respectively, but their final total profits were very low.

What is the Key to Success?

In trading, it is often difficult to balance multiple indicators such as win rate, profit-loss ratio, and drawdown. Focusing on strengthening which aspect can most effectively improve the net value growth of accounts in Meme trading?

Here, the Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the relationship between multiple indicators and the final score, with the following conclusions:

• The win rate has the strongest correlation with the score (0.610), indicating that the Meme tokens on Solana are still a fast-paced PvP battlefield, and maintaining a win rate is more important than maintaining a profit-loss ratio (diamond hands can fail).
• The second strongest correlation is with the maximum loss percentage (-0.495), indicating that controlling drawdowns is also a key factor, requiring traders to manage their positions or cut losses in a timely manner (those who like to go all-in may end up in the bottom ten).
• Other indicators have weak correlations with the score.
• The number of trades is completely uncorrelated with the score, meaning that whether one trades aggressively or occasionally, the results are basically the same (which may imply that most participation in pump.fun tokens is akin to rolling dice, ultimately conforming to the law of large numbers).

Conclusion

In summary, in the PvP battlefield of Solana Meme, escaping quickly and losing less has become the key to success.

Odaily reminds that Meme investments carry risks, and this article serves only as a reference. Specific investment targets and styles should be determined by the investors themselves.

Appendix (Top 100 Smart Money Addresses)

6FNbu3i6vpigXMatC6SyWKibUAdJyyX8nM8WDtZCNcEz

6xUL8CUfV1fzd3UQoDBs7agWNXpwyE5q56css1wHNFFU

4J5rDTvRbzjuKkB4B9rvNEvDz6f1BEBzUVT5mdctKHoT

9v6RGY46wf672PtpYMxCJ1nvrVTrukUDn1AjE634rvCf

GpNbukV5nggkJfsEEbKrJaZkdgYcNWCAaD91Mi4MmGQi

DNfuF1L62WWyW3pNakVkyGGFzVVhj4Yr52jSmdTyeBHm

FTg1gqW7vPm4kdU1LPM7JJnizbgPdRDy2PitKw6mY27j

69ngexW9UkgRp5KFjLpaK9XNSCxUFmps6jYmqhK3q6m9

7XgBprwnRfFHd287pnNQj4AZ6Yb9QE5pJ6ChQ3zhsGpJ

4Be9CvxqHW6BYiRAxW9Q3xu1ycTMWaL5z8NX4HR3ha7t

5wPWthsivjuGi43WbTo5LdSjDTJ8pXSSHyfXWVojJjUF

27nKnCT3DD5NLJw3xbq3KDL3thx6KTe6DmrRCbi2uszE

2zc9rfAQybucpfQxdgW9otWBFnqxDoz5Fva1vD2wmaha

6HRZ8qLqmAuJ3anksqAEHLqwN7akoCU1ZjihQyoQbK64

ENRayX3P4At1eBj87TZJvZT1JVCAykwwYB5SjKT6Y2ZA

D49JMtrnenWigKNWxrACtyXfybZLjKsufXvdcD1ng8BA

DVFpA1mKBWSEuyuiWXQEdrhkyZ8mSPM2Fe7y1KhbbqxT

7HUpxcqNkUF2sGsNcTPMTWTVXok9mUiG8QcRJHM61jys

8deJ9xeUvXSJwicYptA9mHsU2rN2pDx37KWzkDkEXhU6

CeoqFgsd6sob3S1Ka7qDnXj1e76MweXx2cwUrjVqmRmv

6p8cxa2G17qaJf4LnoioyQ2vjmfaY91hc2cYghQiovXf

9NmtJ6MpuH8mzNnbQHvwaVpKbs3T51nr6VMFRTshNCMS

8r5Y6gRPBLoiT4jSGgpMwPPn4PitdSuKqDGPUx2aU5Wh

79CmfobG1sLjUZRyT9nUzfwy5xcJuWETMqTMVxFqNFwh

6AtHTM75tnpvazEwMBmd2spbxcQFTBqrNxNKUvTWxUMp

A4vCNjNJxs6UxsHT99oNkNZaoLBBYS7ZF4RwaPwZ7PKp

8yJFWmVTQq69p6VJxGwpzW7ii7c5J9GRAtHCNMMQPydj

EKWkKPRGEQzTHW32j7i4hbtzoW6s3ZGAfL7T8RkSvrhJ

FfCmMs68EYGkd3mnMf7T7uLRxEh5z1cY7TVpqawQxCEF

HbzEtahBdLk61kCP9wgqEecvP5oebFaqWHCANJupYM8Q

Ffb9SFFAFgBhiEU1XUj3r4JEz5Rva7SUfEAJWFinpUau

Eb5u4wu1bjjyeytxiuatuqNGGQLFFHjcW9rLeTiGzrMf

HS8BjVNAT4m36hLnD3GZvc74Y8iMVkx7pYhiMSDv1pWm

AVAZvHLR2PcWpDf8BXY4rVxNHYRBytycHkcB5z5QNXYm

12L63BUpPKi8ZDdD1Kj5dsyPcozjAc1vTQpVwLbBa19H

6YQSZp2mnp8BUMyMkT7MPg33YHXtnJVBPvS8wNStiF6H

9ru9BSVFSUqSRQFwdjjnkzQGf9yUdpRTjpjXPKc4BvxX

4mbEf27m7XVGSuFpiAQiRxCyX5Epu2qd2gevY2joPmQk

Cgzgw9agWXSJPHPWXFoM4W5iKeUi1dNVREfq5u86XMKx

ExCsisSuZuXmnuPMNVUiR7zTejfN3kmZdVidSExQE1vc

BrFcBzjdb6iWgnogjaDws8CxnB6ApWtacCtUtsgzEHCf

9oTsfYWULoX9V9X1xJosKquiv2RUxia6XTLZHn6aa5BN

5mta8pCqi2Zm3kFWLyMXseZtAFpHd5m2vHLh7N7hWyqX

3kebnKw7cPdSkLRfiMEALyZJGZ4wdiSRvmoN4rD1yPzV

8Ga6pH8cpxspHEeF9Q3nc6BTgHCxnMwMJvvvecErLux7

Bgm3tCLEcUQweuDcYARyoXioLCQQ3pdMYLMoneKdKP2m

9vuf62XM3nf1TqceYYfd5RUawZ1rvmVYJJRmhc5e9Lgt

HiJ46Rrgdx7hmsgaibmi9LEM7U5nsHmVD22rngwk4Udc

7UiWFNRmbwFph7247WTzfxGHqELDigqpsiysb3y3tKQf

E8hK8YbE8iBPywf4Q9TahgAT42Az2jgJL6uCHcpkP196

ARGivPcb6uapd5N3EFMAzpWDZ4wRxriMH1kkdeFHYUvS

5cN5vAuXpRfE56QJTKFxw7m3UkuVVcZMjTwGb2DQZkrG

DKwybycDSWidrHfpMjaahUsT1Yid3kig86ncXPAGe7AU

EceAXcGP69ZKCnXougTSpuHoGrLZT7e9hkxXmDPx8Qcd

GYGazbafxrSffoFF6xPUwVmqnV8CziwkD89KijUorhHi

H6azfrDwWFmQav8UMLiofEi73q6uZVv9geNqpy6VQXV9

ErG9AkyQQvf7j8rha71dtba2zxqmEfPfc819TMzAbnWk

B4M9RqyTF9jF5Zb8ZG9ZeLkvWXCeKMAq6TdE9L4NqUr2

HkiCryXaSgvYPHenUv2YYfcoYd8HcNgUUDKZdScpyP6Z

99qwBygWc1nPo9AvKgLbKDXxSkdmvy5CXTNk5CWVwzGT

5B3wpkaPZAKSZpYxmyMx5xNpeRZy67WdFNGQJToziAHP

DosUh54Scj73jcPepYmiFPAzmn3oQYyd94FZqwNmBeGC

Hp7fx5PoK6jg7brkJYiQ1fdAR73fZpwtFZCuUPTY8pVg

ArSJoBSqugxk8s1ub56YENhDvHXneCnfXJujzpugkCbT

Et45ydaesDDBN1zjXA9m7iTqgatTnxL6MrMgtWNfCbuX

8A4yM724ep3dqv9GQ7Rx3B9QcV8Tjc2H1toHAnEEmAeK

JDkA2zGDoL184ZCxkETmZMUucZve3S9iCpCygK7X383m

7dMyG1PVNpqz9FpxyGAg7kkhVQmQ9zUJHwQw6RHs4vyo

Eq38QQAc2auEEoXKx2iV7sXhGzmUaVMwf2SzHmw6cg4u

7fLjm9dYn9chMXX58Au2H1p3cwoTvh3Ri3erm1bxWXk2

HF9G11htJrFUGD5cpj8t9Fks7DZ4eJy78YqmrAZquydg

4bUb5YV7zcvabHsPd7NTpvMmbdMJkTwAtvY269PjNFh8

FvTBarKFhrnhL9Q55bSJnMmAdXisayUb5u96eLejhMF9

4ZCo5NLb1KxRymHaWh341WidGF3nYqBGanhHoq4HUGaf

CuEeVczBi4ahyc6kwDodA24CzLVbk5wWUaMnL21da8Ws

8MaVa9kdt3NW4Q5HyNAm1X5LbR8PQRVDc1W8NMVK88D5

CPydqKcEEeKTR6wt3L15G8S5Ea4bxjS2vvjiW9vw1UwK

34ZEH778zL8ctkLwxxERLX5ZnUu6MuFyX9CWrs8kucMw

6CHhn9g1F7msGdekeJTtAcC6EsaEeHBCn6xz6hKpqhsQ

CMcHRygKpNG2Jx83T1cTiqAvg55mYXv6uSwjhFzLwQFc

4q7rNU1nRUWY14vaLPpzpc2C756UQE36vaDwphBpLf2s

AgMroLKUzcvHcvS79xDJmg9ZeuvReyvNxTLunyzqh1nZ

FxqnyvqQbqvfzKZ7uNgu3aFfJzD7FPYi4J7foMwYJgMu

Gb8hF3dex5XsDYMFThaCUvLQngshMJbKuU4fc9PjiVp1

6Y9shDFcKwXh16SR1hatzSsWCBQctjY8VCGbyLWY8NFp

DKgvpfttzmJqZXdavDwTxwSVkajibjzJnN2FA99dyciK

4n1pWS2RLCg4tRoWU3RCpf5YT6tP41rBDJ25TEyi5cMK

5aR9jGBLnko6YfbnC8heWhFzwtf267StEUSobN6N8Eap

9nhwAE4d2FPeRngHSvDfz4J5JqCxhAnm6xL88wnNKAbu

CVu6fpZFZMnWvQfun1yKjje3kV8L14i5knQ9PLKyzLE

62LBFpTA85Z4hHYofP79NiSozxHQWTh88MQzmFFRbgQo

GTPPYMjBbuAp4hbQTHidEMwS3Gyy34ysR4fYLRd6aPjt

2m5498hY3hpSvm1pVyZwwyU6bpQGFGu3PADSoEoZFXQB

CySCk3xgpsnkYe1B4XByg75UiHhwM8XEv5FVDCKGGdr4

HPx7GxQjaVvox8kcBvCkUKSSh4oYm4TUeB8fXG9oGuZM

HFtjJ4Ud1bn4gv1sZznBffpRDYdLK53vCLoDhm9Ks82R

28ipXVfkdmu1PDowCHbcSfzkpH9edZmSiVoDhY5xGVfR

3ZXQXrHAqNUcFgApjS9BDBkG8J14h5rxrQNAmAwqqEGH

FTKTNFqeu9wzckDzmsaL1dTgB19BK6fE6DMTHdbETtd1

Ex5UkpSmcS3zaGyYsv1GFcuRah5U8zvPxp9NBC4KCuVB