Cryptocurrency ETF Weekly | The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.1 billion last week, and the Ethereum spot ETF is set to be launched soon

Organizer: Fairy, ChainCatcher

Editor: Marco, ChainCatcher

Last week, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF maintained strong momentum, while the inflow of crypto ETFs in Hong Kong slowed down. Ethereum issuers submitted their final S-1 filings, and the fees for various Ethereum spot ETFs have been announced. It is almost certain that Ethereum spot ETFs will begin issuance on July 23.

Last Week's Performance of U.S. Crypto Spot ETFs

U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs Continue Net Inflows

Last week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs achieved a continuous 10-day net inflow, totaling $1.197 billion. U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs hold over 900,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 4.3% of the total Bitcoin supply.

The ETF with the highest net inflow last week was BlackRock's ETF IBIT, with a net inflow of $706 million and a net asset value of $21.97 billion; followed by Fidelity's ETF FBTC, with a net inflow of $243 million and a net asset value of $12.14 billion. Only Grayscale's ETF GBTC experienced net outflows, with a net outflow of $56.1 million, which increased compared to the previous week.

The year-to-date net inflow for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $17 billion for the first time, which is the net amount unlocked from GBTC and is independent of price appreciation, growing only through net demand and adoption.

(Note: As of July 19, ARKB has not updated its inflow/outflow data, which may affect the overall data.)

Source: Farside Investors

Hong Kong Crypto Spot ETFs See Slower Net Inflows

Last week, Hong Kong's crypto spot ETFs overall recorded net inflows, but the inflow significantly slowed compared to the previous week. The total Bitcoin holdings of Hong Kong ETFs increased by 230 Bitcoins, with a total net asset value increase of $19.33 million. Notably, net inflows began to gradually decrease from Tuesday, culminating in a net outflow of 44.97 BTC by Friday. The changes in Bitcoin holdings among various issuers were minimal, possibly due to the market undergoing a temporary adjustment after a significant amount of buying in the previous week.

Hong Kong's Ethereum spot ETFs saw an inflow of 353.4 ETH, double that of the previous week, with a total net asset value increase of $1.91 million.

Source: SoSoValue

Note: The total daily net inflow of Bitcoin is the sum of the daily net inflow of all Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETFs. This metric measures the actual amount of BTC that flows into or out of Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETFs on a specific trading day.

Overview of Crypto ETF Dynamics Last Week

On July 18, as various issuers submitted S-1/A filings for Ethereum spot ETFs to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the fee information for nine Ethereum spot ETFs was fully disclosed.

The specific ETF fee data is as follows:

Bloomberg terminals have begun adding trading information for some Ethereum ETFs in preparation for trading to start next week. These ETFs include Bitwise's ETHW, 21Shares' CETH, and Fidelity's FETH, with other ETFs being added gradually.

According to the Cboe official website, five Ethereum spot ETFs from VanEck, Invesco, Fidelity, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton will begin trading on July 23. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that the SEC has notified asset management companies that the U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs are expected to launch on July 23.

Market news indicates that SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce stated in an interview that whether to allow staking for Ethereum ETFs may need to be reassessed. Hester Peirce remarked, "I think features like staking, or any other features of the product… these issues are always worth reconsidering."

• New Crypto ETFs

Direxion launched two ETFs, LMBO and REKT, on July 18, tracking the performance of U.S. stocks in the crypto sector.

21Shares launched the Injective staking ETP product AINJ on July 19.

Views and Analysis on Crypto ETFs

Binance CEO: Ethereum Spot ETFs Will Not Have a Major Impact Initially but Will Achieve Stable Capital Allocation

According to Cointelegraph, Binance CEO Richard Teng stated in a recent interview, "While we expect these ETFs to achieve stable capital allocation, they will not have a major impact initially and will fluctuate based on various macroeconomic factors."

MV Global partner Tom Dunleavy indicated that Ethereum spot ETFs could see inflows of $5 billion to $10 billion within the first few months after launch.

Glassnode: The Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs on BTC Prices is 4-8 Times Greater than Miners

Glassnode concluded after analyzing several major Bitcoin investment entities that while miners have historically been a primary source of selling pressure, centralized exchanges and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now have the greatest impact on BTC price movements. As of July 2024, trading platforms still hold over 3 million Bitcoins, while ETFs manage assets totaling 887,000 Bitcoins. In contrast, known miner-related wallets hold approximately 705,000 BTC. Currently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have become the second-largest Bitcoin pool.

Glassnode data shows that miner balances fluctuate by about 500 BTC weekly, which is only a small portion of the changes in trading platforms and ETF balances. "Historically, miners have been the main source of selling pressure, but with each halving event, their supply correlation does decrease," and currently, trading platforms and ETF balances may change by about 4,000 BTC weekly. Glassnode stated, "This suggests that the market influence flowing through these entities may be 4 to 8 times greater than that of miners. The Bitcoin market absorbed 48,000 BTC last month. The complete exhaustion of selling pressure from the German government provided significant relief to the market, while the initial glimmer of new demand stimulated positive price movements."

Bitwise CIO: Inflows from Ethereum ETFs Will Drive ETH to Break $5,000 and Set New All-Time Highs

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that the impact of spot ETF inflows on ETH could be greater than that on Bitcoin. He expects that in the first few weeks after the Ethereum ETF launch, ETH prices will be "volatile," as funds may flow out of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), valued at $11 billion, when it converts to a spot ETF. However, by the end of the year, he believes ETH prices will break $5,000 and set new all-time highs. If the inflows are stronger than many market commentators expect, prices could be even higher.

Bloomberg Analyst: Ethereum Spot ETFs Will Pave the Way for More Similar Products

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the first batch of spot Ethereum ETFs is about to launch, which will pave the way for more crypto ETFs, with expectations for more products based on Ethereum and Solana to emerge.

Citi: Net Inflows for Ethereum Spot ETFs in the First 6 Months Range from $4.7 Billion to $5.4 Billion

Citi reported that the inflow for U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs may only be 30% to 35% of that for Bitcoin spot ETFs, estimating that the net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the first six months will range from $4.7 billion to $5.4 billion.

Viewpoint: SEC's Approval Order for ETH Spot ETFs "Strongly Implies ETH is a Commodity, Not a Security"

Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, cited an analysis report from the law firm Foley & Lardner LLP, stating that the most significant progress in the SEC's approval order for ETH spot ETFs is that "the SEC strongly implies that ETH is a commodity, not a security."

Additionally, "the approval order indicates that crypto assets can start as securities and transition to commodities over time."