How many of Trump's campaign promises have been fulfilled?

Author: jk, Odaily Planet Daily

Looking from the point of view of July 2024, various parties generally predict that Trump winning this year's U.S. election is just a matter of time. From the perspective of the crypto world, Trump undoubtedly presents a more crypto-friendly image compared to the current U.S. President Biden; not only does he engage in friendly conversations with various crypto moguls, but he has also chosen a vice presidential candidate who is pro-crypto and made many commitments to the crypto industry.

However, there are also opposing voices: On July 11, Arthur Hayes stated that Trump's "sudden interest in cryptocurrency" is not sincere.

Hayes said,

Appeasing the young, politically active, and newly wealthy cryptocurrency community may help Trump win the election. Therefore, Trump is enhancing his image among cryptocurrency supporters by saying all the 'right things.' Unfortunately, this newfound political attention has caught the eye of many in our industry. The political hot chicks are trying to take us home, not the other way around. These feelings are wrong. The playboys of cryptocurrency are not movie stars, but fools standing on the edge of the party.

What frustrates me is that many cryptocurrency experts who should know better are now blindly hosting fancy fundraising events for Trump's campaign. They mistakenly believe that Trump is sincere, and as long as they donate enough money, the 'crypto-killing actions' will disappear. This is pure nonsense. Trump is a shrewd politician. He will say anything to anyone who wants to be re-elected. Once in office, anything related to cryptocurrency will become a distant memory.

Let’s take a look back at history: How many of Trump's past campaign promises have been fulfilled? Especially in the fields of economy and new technology, the success rate of these promises will, in some sense, serve as a reference for Trump's attitude towards the crypto sector.

How many of Trump's past campaign promises have been fulfilled?

Trump has made many promises during his previous campaigns, and general statistics tend to select those that are more serious, made in public settings, and mentioned multiple times. According to neutral site PolitiFact, during his last presidential term, Trump successfully fulfilled about 23% of his promises, made concessions and partially fulfilled 22% of his promises, but broke about 53% of his promises. In other words, when it comes to keeping campaign promises, the data seems to support Arthur Hayes' viewpoint more.

The proportion of Trump's fulfilled promises. Source: PolitiFact

In the economic sector, the promises Trump successfully fulfilled during his last term include:

• Did not cut Social Security payments (he did attempt to cut and break his promise, but was blocked by Congress)

• Increased tariffs

• Renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement

• Reduced some taxes

• Withdrew from TPP

Promises he did not successfully fulfill include:

• Invest in U.S. infrastructure and establish a U.S. infrastructure fund

• Achieve a 4% annual economic growth rate

• Bring manufacturing back to the U.S.

• Cut federal spending

• Reduce federal debt and lower the deficit

• Reduce the number of tax brackets from seven to three

• Remove China from the WTO

• Build a wall across the U.S.-Mexico border and make Mexico pay for it

While we can make effective predictions about the future based on this data, it can be seen that if it is something that the Trump administration could fully control, some issues have indeed been resolved; however, if it involves deeper economic development issues (such as U.S. government debt), it is unlikely to be resolved.

What commitments has Trump made in the crypto sector?

Currently, Trump's commitments in the crypto sector are summarized as follows: (Data sources include CNBC and Bloomberg)

1. Trump invited holders of his NFT series to his home in Florida and promised that if re-elected, he would end the regulatory hostility towards the industry;

2. At the Libertarian National Convention, he promised to release Ross Ulbricht, who was convicted for creating the dark web marketplace "Silk Road";

3. At the same convention, he vowed to keep Senator Elizabeth Warren (who proposed strong regulatory legislation for the crypto industry) and "her henchmen" away from Bitcoin holders.

4. In June, after meeting with executives from several Bitcoin mining companies, Trump announced that if he returned to the White House, all future Bitcoins would be minted in the U.S. (This should not be considered a firm commitment)

Among these, in some way "ending regulatory hostility," such as replacing Gary Gensler, and releasing Ross Ulbricht indeed fall within the rights of the White House, so based on previous data, these may indeed be achievable goals for Trump if he takes office.

It is worth mentioning that this is almost in stark contrast to Trump's own attitude five years ago. In 2019, Trump tweeted that he was "not a fan of Bitcoin, its value is highly volatile, just like based on air."

Trump tweeted in 2019. Source: Bloomberg