"The end of the 'German address' sell-off market warms up, will Trump's assassination bring a dramatic change to the market?"

Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

Today, the price of Bitcoin steadily rose, briefly breaking through $63,000, while ETH also surpassed $3,300, and altcoins followed the market with a broad rally. In the past 24 hours, short positions were liquidated to the tune of $90 million.

A major bearish sentiment hanging over the market has finally been erased: on July 13, the balance of Bitcoin addresses seized by the German government indicated that its sell-off may have ended, marking the conclusion of significant sell-offs that began in mid-June. It is worth noting that the selling pressure from these 50,000 BTC caused Bitcoin to drop from a low of $65,000 to around $53,500, leading to widespread panic in the market and creating a new annual low that also dragged down the altcoin market.

Recently, Trump, who narrowly escaped an assassination attempt, has gone viral globally due to a photo of him raising his arm in triumph. Following the incident, Trump's chances of winning the election on the prediction market platform Polymarket surged to 71%, a recent high, far exceeding the current president Biden's 18%. Based on a series of statements during this election cycle, if Trump ultimately wins, it would undoubtedly be a significant positive for the cryptocurrency market.

Last month, Trump stated during a meeting with Bitcoin miner representatives that he loves and understands cryptocurrencies and would advocate for Bitcoin miners in the White House. He even posted on his social media platform Truth Social that Bitcoin mining might be our last line of defense against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). He expressed a desire for all remaining Bitcoin to be made in the USA. Additionally, Palantir Technologies advisor Jacob Helberg told Reuters that Trump explicitly stated that Biden and Gensler's crackdown on cryptocurrencies would cease within an hour of his second administration taking office.

It is noteworthy that Trump is scheduled to attend the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Tennessee on July 27 and deliver a speech. If the probability of Trump's victory continues to rise, the crypto market may preemptively welcome this potential positive "price in" rally.

There has been no news regarding the distribution compensation for Mt. Gox. After months of market pessimism, the selling pressure has weakened, and Bitcoin spot ETF data has shown impressive performance. Since July 5, ETF data has shown net inflows, with a staggering total net inflow of $310 million on July 12 alone. According to IntoTheBlock data, Bitcoin whale addresses increased their holdings by 71,000 BTC, worth approximately $4.3 billion, when the price retreated to $54,200 on July 5.

The approval of Ethereum spot ETH is also just around the corner. On the macro front, interest rate cut expectations have shifted from once to twice, and have been moved up to September. With a series of upcoming positive developments, let's hear what the experts have to say about the future market direction.

Ben Simpson, Founder of Collective Shift: A "local bottom" for Bitcoin has formed and is trending upward

Ben Simpson, founder of the crypto education platform Collective Shift, stated that a local bottom for Bitcoin has formed and is trending upward. Bitcoin's price has been impacted by significant forced selling, much of which came from the German government's nearly $3 billion sell-off, as well as negative sentiment regarding the repayment of approximately $8.5 billion to Mt. Gox creditors. This week’s assassination attempt on former President Trump has positively influenced his chances of re-election, and his supportive stance on cryptocurrencies has boosted positive sentiment for Bitcoin and crypto assets.

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio: If Bitcoin's weekly, daily, and 4H K-line charts close above $60,000, there is a high likelihood of approaching $63,000

Eugene Ng Ah Sio, a top trader on Binance's contract platform, whose cumulative contract earnings have surpassed $28.65 million, stated on his social media that if Bitcoin's weekly, daily, and 4H K-line charts close above $60,000, there is a high likelihood of approaching $63,000. Conversely, if it cannot hold this level, the upward momentum may stagnate, potentially marking a peak for a considerable time (attempting to reclaim the range and failing).

Trader T: Mt. Gox will be the next major seller, potentially bringing $4.62 billion in selling pressure before November

Trader T predicted on the X platform that after a week of strong selling by the German government, Mt. Gox will be the next strong seller. Mt. Gox is expected to repay 14,100 BTC, with at least 80% of the repayment due before November this year, and a repayment discount rate of 89%, meaning Mt. Gox could sell up to 100,392 BTC before November. Given the dispersed ownership, the likelihood of a large-scale liquidation is low. In the worst-case scenario, if Mt. Gox sells 80% of its Bitcoin, it could bring $4.62 billion in liquidation pressure.

10x Research: Larger-scale sell-offs may occur in the coming weeks and months

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated in a report that concerns persist due to oversupply and a lack of solid market fundamentals, posing potential risks for mid-term traders. Last week, Bitcoin seemed to rebound from oversold levels before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released, which is expected to decline. However, since this expectation is widely known and Bitcoin has already risen, the price may not be sustainable. This trend of declining inflation may continue until October, when year-on-year data will become more challenging.

Despite experiencing nearly a 20% pullback at its lowest point during the sale of $3 billion worth of Bitcoin in Saxony, the price has withstood this test. However, larger-scale sell-offs are expected in the coming weeks and months, which may further impact the market.

JPMorgan: The cryptocurrency market is expected to rebound in August

JPMorgan stated in its latest research report that the crypto market is expected to begin rebounding in August. Due to the liquidation of creditors from Mt. Gox and Gemini, as well as the German government's sale of cryptocurrencies seized from criminal activities, Bitcoin reserves on major trading platforms have decreased over the past month, leading the bank to revise its year-to-date net inflow estimate for the crypto market from $12 billion to $8 billion. The report noted that liquidation activities should conclude this month, and the market will recover starting in August.

Matrixport: Last week, Bitcoin ETF inflows reached a one-month high, with buying gradually shifting from institutions to retail investors

Matrixport released a report stating that the spot Bitcoin ETF ended last week with an inflow of $310 million, marking the highest level in over a month. Previously, ETF fund flows were closely related to inflation data, and last week’s CPI data was weaker than expected, suggesting that ETF funds may continue to flow in. Notably, buying activity, initially driven by high arbitrage opportunities, has shifted to retail investors who are less sensitive to stop-losses. This shift may prolong buying activity, reducing dependence on macroeconomic data.

Ki Young Ju, Founder of CryptoQuant: The crypto market is expected to be quiet in the next 2-3 months, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook

Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin miner capitulation is still ongoing. Historically, this process ends when the daily average mining value reaches 40% of the annual average, but the current figure is 72%. It is expected that the cryptocurrency market will perform quietly in the next 2-3 months while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook, but avoiding excessive risk.