An analysis of whether runes can still be saved

Author: Cookie, BlockBeats

Ordinals is dead, this is one of the widely circulated memes about Ordinals. Since the introduction of Runes, this meme has evolved into "Runes is dead" and the famous "Casey seppuku."

Since its launch, the performance of Runes has always been somewhat unsatisfactory. Currently, the total market capitalization of Runes hovers just above $1 billion, which is famously known as the "Casey seppuku line," and we are back to square one. Over the past 5 days, the total trading volume in the Runes market has been a pitifully low around $2 million, or even less. Due to limitations in ticker naming, since its launch at the end of April, only about 87,500 Runes Tokens have been "etched (deployed)."

In contrast, since April 1 of this year, over 640,000 meme Tokens have been deployed on Solana. As for trading volume, the top 30 meme Tokens on Solana in the past 24 hours could easily outmatch the entire Runes.

The summer solstice has passed, yet the "Runes Summer" that foreigners have been calling for has yet to arrive.

In the eyes of many Chinese degens, Runes is simply a typical "CJB" ------ isn't it said that foreigners have consensus? That there is no mutual support between Chinese and foreigners? Foreigners only make noise without action, and have already faltered…

In fact, I believe this statement has a cognitive trap. Runes is indeed a consensus among foreigners at the Ordinals FT protocol level, but the Ordinals community itself is quite small, and when further narrowed down to the group of foreign Runes players, it becomes even smaller. In contrast, during last year's inscription craze, almost all players in the Chinese community participated, and the Chinese community truly experienced and reached a consensus ------ that the inscription track can be profitable.

This is essentially a one-sided confrontation, with the majority of Chinese degens versus a minority of foreign degens.

The struggle of Runes to gain traction is partly due to the current market entering a relatively calm or even sluggish phase, and on the other hand, the Bitcoin ecosystem, or the Ordinals ecosystem, and even the Runes ecosystem, remains a small circle within the entire Crypto space.

The total number of Runes holders is less than 730,000, and only a little over 480,000 have actually interacted with Runes. Excluding cases where one person controls multiple addresses, the actual number of independent players is quite pitiful.

Runes is not lacking in good, attractive meme Tokens. The recently airdropped EPIC•EPIC•EPIC•EPIC can be regarded as the Bitcoin version of $PEOPLE. Led by the Blob team, many Ordinals projects, communities, and individuals collectively raised 33.3 Bitcoins to purchase the fourth "Epic Satoshi" produced during this year's halving, and after etching (deploying) this Runes, they airdropped it for free to over 90,000 addresses.

This story of gathering ecological strength and giving back to the ecosystem is compelling. However, the cognitive barrier also objectively exists. Bitcoin has been viewed as "currency" or "virtual gold" for many years, and since the birth of Ordinals, controversies surrounding the Ordinals ecosystem have persisted. Meanwhile, many Crypto players still perceive Bitcoin as "currency" ------ Bitcoin? Oh, yes, it's expensive; investing in Bitcoin won't yield life-changing wealth, so I won't participate.

The existence of this impression means that the story of a single Bitcoin's smallest unit, "Satoshi," being bought by a group of Bitcoin believers for 33.3 Bitcoins needs to break out of its circle to be heard by more people. Many people first do not know what a "rare Satoshi" is, and secondly, even if they hear this story, they may be confused and unable to appreciate its charm.

I must say, no cryptocurrency possesses such cultural attributes; we cannot see an ETH on Ethereum valued at 3.33 billion times its own worth. Moreover, purchasing a "rare Satoshi" for 33.3 Bitcoins has no precedent, which means a group of fervent explorers of Bitcoin culture is using 33.3 Bitcoins to seek an answer ------ if 33.3 Bitcoins equals 1 Satoshi, proving Bitcoin's cultural value, can this 33.3 Bitcoins create even greater value?

Previously, the BRC-20 version of $PUPS bridged to Solana, causing a surge and sensation, marking a very good start. After $PUPS, I observed that the communication between the Solana ecosystem and the Ordinals ecosystem has become much closer, with the most direct feeling being that the Bitcoin Puppets and OMB NFT series have seen many buyers from Solana.

Pump, or price surges, can certainly bring a lot of attention and new users to an ecosystem in the short term, but to retain them, the ecosystem must be infectious, must have a vibe, and must have its own captivating stories and culture. Since the birth of Ordinals, Bitcoin has gradually developed a "cultural medium" aspect from being merely a "value medium." In other words, Bitcoin itself is a culture; it has stood firm for so many years without relying on various application narratives until today, proving that it is the currency of our generation, a testament to a generation's beliefs.

What does Runes need to grow? First, I think we need bridges for Runes to other chains; such infrastructure is being developed by RuneMine, Beyond, and MultiBit, and I believe the day we have Runes bridges is not far off.

In my view, liquidity is secondary; more importantly, we need to bring the stories of Runes and the Ordinals ecosystem to users on other chains, allowing them to see that Bitcoin has excellent native memes and captivating native stories, updating their impressions of Bitcoin. Just as young people rarely buy gold but instead trade sneakers, game items, and NFTs, Bitcoin is also young now.

We need a renaissance for Bitcoin; we need to challenge the public's old impressions of Bitcoin and let more people begin to appreciate the cultural diversity of Bitcoin.