Nine Major Data Perspectives on the Market: The Bear Market Hasn't Arrived, Bottom-Fishing Funds Are Quietly Positioning

Author: Willy Woo

Compiled by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

Let's talk about the recent supply and demand of Bitcoin and the market conditions. Below is an analysis of the situation regarding miners, the German government, ETFs, and futures.

Have the miners surrendered, and are we now in a bear market? The answer is no.

Before the hash rate rose (the yellow line in the chart), the market was bearish. Miners were selling, which happens every time after a halving. When the yellow line starts to rise again, it is generally a good buying opportunity.

The main factor behind this market panic is the German government continuously selling seized Bitcoin.

The people from movie2k (the suspects) have held BTC since 2013, and its value has increased over 100 times, approximately $3 billion.

The German government now controls these assets and is ready to sell them immediately.

I saw a so-called best comment: "This is bullish; when was the last time Germany made a good decision?"

Digressing, back to the point.

They have sold over 10,000 Bitcoins (editor's note: the tweet was published on July 9), and it seems they are selling at market price, further driving down the price of Bitcoin, while also devaluing their own held assets.

There are rumors that they have now turned to OTC trading desks to let professionals handle it.

This will reduce the severity of price impact but will not completely eliminate it. OTC trading platforms will fill the order matching gaps between buyers and sellers in the market.

Now let's review the situation in Mentougou.

Recently, it seems that 2,700 BTC have been distributed to users, leaving 139,000 BTC remaining. This number is indeed quite large, and I will observe how many of these people choose to sell this recovered Bitcoin.

What about the market players trading ETFs?

To my surprise, funds are steadily flowing in, and ETF data shows players are buying the dip. It is still too early to draw conclusions, but it already suggests that the market is in a "bottom fishing" mode.

Note that the BTC price is consolidating within a low volatility range while BTC is leaving exchanges—this is bottom fishing.

How is the total capital flowing into Bitcoin?

It has fallen into a common reversal zone.

What about the futures market?

The heat map below shows the positions of market leverage liquidations. For prices to climb, all shorts need to be cleared up to $77,000, but there are also many liquidation points at $47,000, which is the next stop for the market to turn bearish.

The question is, which way will the dominant trend lean?

This is another perspective of the futures market, where there is still too much speculative capital, making it difficult for prices to rise.

There are too many "paper BTC" bets. We are not at that "to the moon" moment yet.

Looking at another chart clarifies this.

The paper BTC bets have been rising, with an additional 140,000 BTC created out of thin air, but the spot supply remains unchanged. Now, comparing this to the over 10,000 BTC sold by Germany, you can see the reason for the market's real crash.

The risk signals in the chart below indicate that the market has not entered a bear market. Additionally, the US stock market has reached new highs, and traditional financial markets still favor a bull market.

Currently, this consolidation period presents an opportunity for investors hoarding Bitcoin.

The market is in a deep consolidation phase, designed to scare traders and push the pain of liquidation to the limit.

Falling below the $47,000 mark could still crush the bulls, but it seems that the market's bottom fishing has already begun.

Let's wait and see. If you are using leverage, I would wait for the hash rate to rebound.

Remember: use margin in the spot market, not in futures.