Source: Coin World

Author: Cyber Street Slacker (formerly Cyber Melon Farmer)

Introduction: The title comes from a conversation with a colleague at work, who excitedly told me, "You said Bitcoin just blinked and it's already at 70,000. How far can 100,000 be?" I replied, "At least until November when Trump takes office; the 100,000 scenery is still far away."

After a weekend, it feels like I haven't written anything for a long time. If I don't put out some content soon, I feel like I won't be able to keep going.

For various reasons, you might have seen my articles in mainland media, so most of my writings don't discuss specific projects. I just want to share some personal insights on the macro market from my perspective.

As of July 9, 2024, when I mention Bitcoin at 70,000, do you think I'm crazy? If I'm crazy, that's good; if I weren't, how would you click on my article? Haha.

BTC price, image from Coin World

What is the core value of BTC?

Whether it rises or falls, let me first ask everyone here: what is the core value of BTC? What exactly supports its rise and fall?

• The oldest digital currency in the crypto market?
• A fixed total supply of 21 million, with no one controlling it?
• The technical security brought by decentralization?
• Support from the global market?
• Global consensus?

If there were a vote, the most popular topic would probably be global consensus.

So, where does BTC's global consensus come from?

In comparison to ETH, both have the backing of decentralized technology. Perhaps the only advantage is that BTC appears to be free from any controlling forces; anyone can participate, while ETH has the Vitalik Buterin team behind it. In terms of ecological applications, ETH supports smart contracts, naturally offering a richer application ecosystem than BTC, with leading applications like Uni and OpenSea. In terms of user numbers, statistics from 2023 show that BTC has an average of about 1.14 million active addresses per day, accounting for 12.82% of valid addresses (with a balance greater than 0.01); ETH has about 580,000 active addresses per day, accounting for 4.38% of valid addresses; the SOL chain, which claims to be an ETH killer, has not released data, but its daily trading volume and amount exceed those of ETH.

So, comparing the three, why is the top seat in crypto not ETH? Why is it not SOL in terms of users? To joke, if it really comes down to it, compared to the MEME of TRUMP, at least the others have someone who understands behind them.

In a group, the person who may not have the most outstanding overall quality or hard power, but has the best relationships, often holds more power at a higher dimension, which is why everyone follows them.

So what is that higher dimension?

Trump supports cryptocurrency, so what?

Since BTC reached its peak of 73,777 in March, it has repeatedly attempted to break the 70,000 mark on March 31, April 10, May 20, and June 5. With BTC's strong climbs, the market predicts the arrival of a bull market in 2023. Various rumors have emerged regarding this. Here are the most valuable positive news for BTC in 2024:

• BTC halving
• BTC and ETH spot ETFs opening successively, bringing more funds into the market
• The crypto market being accepted by mainstream finance, with increasing regulatory involvement
• The U.S. lowering interest rates, making the market "richer"
• The U.S. presidential election, with crypto president Trump having a high chance of winning, making it very likely he will be elected;

Everyone sit down; let's discuss these one by one.

First, BTC halving; it's already July, and the halving has happened, so what? Did it rise?

BTC and ETH spot ETFs opening successively, bringing more funds into the market.

To be honest, from a media person's perspective, the author writes this out of work necessity to align with hot topics; otherwise, how would they make money? If readers genuinely believe this, then they are truly being fooled by the author.

Not to mention the traditional financial market, how many people in the crypto market truly understand that line? If you don't understand it, how can outsiders invest? In other words, the ones who used to play ETFs are still those institutions; those people remain the same. Different fields have their specialties; crypto people not understanding crypto is just like A-share investors not understanding A-shares.

The opening of BTC and ETH spot ETFs will only divert funds from the traditional financial market. As high-risk investment products, they will only enter the market when there are profits to be made and will leave when there are no profits, leaving only a small portion of funds that can bear the cost to welcome the next bull market.

The last three points—regulatory openness, U.S. interest rate cuts, and the presidential election—can actually be understood from one dimension.

Due to capital needs, the opening of BTC ETFs requires backing; with this precedent, the leading sectors of the crypto market will naturally need to share the benefits—it's just a matter of time and interests. Otherwise, how could a product not recognized by law or lacking regulatory enforcement enter the mainstream financial market?

Once regulated and opened, where will the money come from to invest? Interest rates have been lowered.

It seems that interest rates have been lowered, the dollar has become more valuable, and the public has more money, but ultimately, the market is a pyramid model. The money in the hands of the public will eventually reach the top financial magnates in the U.S.—otherwise, where would they get the spare money to invest?

From another perspective, the lowering of U.S. interest rates will lead investors to shift their deposits from banks to the U.S. Treasury market, increasing demand for U.S. Treasuries to supply blood to the U.S. This will push up Treasury prices while causing yields to fall. But this also raises another question: how will the 34 billion in U.S. Treasuries be redeemed?

This relates to the presidential election.

If readers enjoy international news, they probably know that many countries have suffered under the tide of the dollar. On this basis, the world economic situation has slowly evolved from the dollar economy after World War II into a new pattern dominated by the euro, the yuan, and the dollar.

However, worse still, previously, oil in the Middle East could only be purchased with dollars. But since May of this year, Saudi Arabia has accepted the proposal to use the yuan as the currency for oil trade settlements. This greatly impacts the dollar's hegemonic position.

Additionally, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, led by the U.S., have bogged down and dragged on.

When the cannon fires, gold is worth a fortune.

With the dollar's dominant position no longer guaranteed, the redemption of 34 billion in U.S. Treasuries becomes a challenge, along with war expenses, etc.

Regardless of who ultimately takes office, whether it's Trump or not, the introduction of the crypto regulatory FIT21 bill has laid the foundation for gradually entering the mainstream financial track in the future. However, how much more money can the U.S. put into nurturing the crypto market?

Bullish or bearish, what is the supporting logic behind the price?

First of all, the Street Slacker is a conspiracy theorist.

Why is the stability of cryptocurrency USDT and not RMBT? Who is the ultimate beneficiary of USDT?

Is BTC truly uncontrolled? Is it really free from control? Various fund managers are marking to go long on BTC and short on the dollar. This means that the same BTC can absorb more dollars, but the final settlement method of the BTC system returns to the dollar. It's naturally deflating.

Then, looking at the market, buying in at 73,000 and then continuously dumping at low prices, where did the dollars in between go?

Next, back to the topic: BTC bullish or bearish, what is the supporting logic behind the price?

The answer in the Street Slacker's mind is the dollar.

The so-called global consensus is merely the manipulation of major powers.

As a part of state-owned financial instruments, BTC does not need to have too many ecosystems or a large user base. It only needs to ensure that there are no intermediaries profiting from the difference, guaranteeing that the biggest beneficiaries on this profit chain are the system itself and those operating the system.

This is why BTC firmly holds the top seat in crypto. After all, there is already a military-industrial profit system in place; there is no need to create another crypto profit system, right?

Thinking about 100,000, to be honest. Whether it can return to 70,000 and hold at 70,000 depends on whether old Trump can deliver in November. According to rumors in the market, if old Trump takes office, he is very likely to use executive orders to regulate foreign trade, ensuring the return of global dollars to stabilize the dollar market.

If old Trump’s administration does not show the expected closeness to the crypto market, it is very likely that the U.S. presidential election in November will only be a small fluctuation in the crypto market.

Talking about 100,000 feels so far away, separated by a world.

In between, there are the Middle East, the Ukraine war, oil, and U.S. Treasuries.

Oh, shit, Trump is 78 years old.