Viewpoint: BTC is at a critical bull-bear stage in this cycle

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, data from CryptoQuant shows that the BTC profit and loss index is currently hovering around its 365-day moving average, which typically indicates that a significant adjustment or the beginning of a prolonged bear market may be imminent. This data previously showed a death cross (downward crossover) which preceded deep declines that began in May and November 2021.

Additionally, CryptoQuant's Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator is also approaching a critical level that signals entry into a bear market. The lack of growth in Tether (USDT) market capitalization also suggests that a rebound may be difficult to achieve, as historical recoveries have almost always been attributed to an increase in stablecoin liquidity.

However, CryptoQuant's data also indicates that Bitcoin whales have been increasing their holdings during the recent downtrend, with large whale holders increasing their holdings by 6.3% over the past month, the fastest rate since April 2023. The German government's large-scale selling appears to be coming to an end (with 13,100 coins remaining). Other positive factors, such as the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. and the continued growth of U.S. stock indices, suggest that despite signs of weakness in the short term, 2024 is still expected to see continued growth.