Master said about the coin: 7.8 Bitcoin intraday market analysis and strategy

Despite Bitcoin briefly falling below $54,000 on Friday, the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. on the 5th was $143 million, which not only reversed the outflow trend at the beginning of the week but also set a new high for inflows in the past month.
The bankrupt Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox has started repayments, which the market sees as the main culprit dragging down Bitcoin's recent performance. The sell-off is not yet over, and the repayment phase may continue until October. Additionally, the recent large transfers of Bitcoin to exchanges by the German and U.S. governments, suspected to be for cashing out, are also considered one of the main reasons for the decline in Bitcoin's performance.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H level chart of Bitcoin, the current price is close to the lower band and is in a low state, which may receive support near the lower band. The distance between the upper and lower bands is relatively large, indicating that market volatility is expected to be high in the future.
Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the 4H level chart of Bitcoin, all three KDJ line values are currently at low levels, and the J line value is in an oversold state, but there are no obvious signs of a turnaround, indicating that the price may further decline.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 4H level chart of Bitcoin, both the DIF line and DEA line are below the 0 axis, and the DIF line is approaching the DEA line from above, showing signs of a potential death cross. Once the death cross forms, the price will further decline, and the MACD green histogram is gradually increasing, indicating that the downward momentum is strengthening.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H level chart of Bitcoin, the middle band is currently pointing downwards, indicating that the overall market is in a downtrend. The price is fluctuating between the lower band and the middle band, and there is a rebound when approaching the lower band, suggesting that there is some rebound demand during this period, but overall it still leans bearish.
Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the 1H level chart of Bitcoin, KDJ shows an upward trend at low levels, and the J line value has started to rise, indicating that there is some rebound demand in the oversold area. However, the overall upward momentum is still weak. If the K line value can cross above the D line value to form a golden cross, it will more clearly signal a short-term rebound.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 1H level chart of Bitcoin, both the DIF line and DEA line are below the 0 axis, and there are signs that the DIF line is approaching the DEA line from below. If the DIF line can cross below the DEA line to form a death cross, the price will further decline. However, there is currently no clear death cross signal, indicating that it will continue to consolidate or slightly rebound in the short term.
Comprehensive analysis: According to the 4H level chart of Bitcoin, the KDJ indicator is in the oversold area, and Bitcoin may experience a brief rebound, with the price running between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, overall leaning bearish. If the rebound is weak, it may continue to probe lower. According to the 1H level chart of Bitcoin, the support of the lower band and the oversold rebound signal from KDJ support a short-term rebound, but the MACD has not yet formed a clear upward or downward signal, so the rebound momentum may not be strong.
In summary, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
Short Bitcoin near $55,500, targeting around $54,000, with a stop loss at $56,000.
No specific analysis for Ethereum, short it to $2,800 first.
Written on: (2024-07-08, 11:25)