The master said: Bitcoin at 7.5 dropped below 55,000 USD, is the bull gone and the bear coming?

跌跌不休！只能用着几个字来形容本周加密货币市场，自周一（7.1号）开始从63894美元附近，一路跌跌不休，周五中午更是创下近四个月的新低来到了53485美元一线，截止撰稿时间报价为55330美元，近24小时下跌6.01%。
Summary of the recent reasons for Bitcoin's decline: First, around 8:30 this morning, Mt.Gox transferred approximately $2.71 billion worth of Bitcoin from its cold wallet. Although the purpose of this transfer is unclear, it coincides with the exchange's repayment to creditors, leading to speculation that it might be for repayment preparations. This news has caused panic in the market; second, the German government's wallet address again released approximately $175 million worth of Bitcoin yesterday, totaling about $300 million worth of Bitcoin released in two weeks, while still holding over 40,000 coins worth approximately $2.32 billion.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the current price is running between the middle and lower bands, and is close to the lower band, indicating that the market is currently in a weak state. The Bollinger Bands are widening, suggesting increased market volatility, which may lead to significant price fluctuations.
Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, all three KDJ lines are operating at low levels, indicating that the market remains weak. However, the J line is in the oversold area, suggesting a demand for a rebound, but the K line and D line have not formed a clear rebound signal.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the DIF line is running below the DEA line, and both lines are trending downward, indicating that the current market is in a bearish trend. The MACD histogram is continuously increasing, suggesting that bearish strength is still strengthening.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin 1H chart, the current price is running between the middle and upper bands, indicating that the market is in a relatively strong state. The Bollinger Bands show slight signs of narrowing, suggesting that market volatility is decreasing, with no obvious signs of a rebound or pullback, and further observation is needed for a breakout above the upper band or a drop below the middle band.
Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin 1H chart, the current K line is above the D line, showing strong upward momentum in the short term. However, the J line is at a high level, in the overbought area, indicating a need to be cautious of short-term pullback risks.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin 1H chart, the DIF line is approaching the DEA line, with a trend towards forming a golden cross. If the DIF line can cross above the DEA line, it will be a clear buy signal. The MACD green histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that bearish strength is weakening. If the histogram changes from green to red, it will further confirm the bullish trend.
Comprehensive analysis: Based on the Bitcoin 4H chart, it may continue to oscillate downward in the short term, but since the KDJ is in the oversold zone, be cautious of a potential rebound at any time. According to the Bitcoin 1H chart, there may be a slight rebound in the short term, but since the KDJ is in the overbought zone, there is a certain pullback risk. Therefore, wait for the MACD to form a golden cross to confirm the upward trend before going long.
In summary, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
Short Bitcoin near 56000-56100, target 54800, stop loss at 56700.
Writing time: (2024-07-05, 21:25)