How to spend the garbage time in the cryptocurrency circle?

Author: Shenchao TechFlow

Recently, an article has gone viral, titled "How to Get Through Historical Garbage Time."

What is historical garbage time?

In short, it refers to moments in history when certain events contradict economic laws, and individuals find it difficult to change the situation, making the overall trend seem destined to fail.

For example, Japan's economic stagnation for thirty years after the bubble burst in the 1990s, where young people had no opportunities, and both national and personal development hit a ceiling.

For instance, the period of stagnation in the United States from 1970 to 1982, characterized by high inflation, high unemployment, and low economic growth.

Another example is the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1989, which continues to affect Russia today.

A grain of dust in the era falls on an individual’s head, becoming a mountain.

In the face of great trends, individuals are always insignificant. Buffett became the "Oracle of Omaha" because he was born in the U.S. and invested in U.S. stocks; the rise of China's wealthy class rode the wave of the past 40 years of China's reform and opening-up; some people gained returns of dozens of times or even higher by investing in altcoins/MEME coins because the rise of Bitcoin boosted market sentiment and brought in new funds…

But if the entire market or country is facing headwinds, no matter how hard individuals try, it is futile.

In the investment market, "garbage time" is particularly vivid.

Take Bitcoin as an example; most of the gains are concentrated in just a few months, and within those months, the increases are concentrated in just a few days.

Fundstrat Global Advisors' Tom Lee recently stated, "Most of Bitcoin's annual gains occur within just 10 days of the year. If you exclude the best 10 days of the year, Bitcoin actually has negative returns."

All the waiting is just for those crucial few days.

So, how should individuals cope during garbage time in the investment market?

In this regard, A-share investors may have considerable experience.

The first method is to lie down.

This is the approach most Japanese people chose after the economic bubble burst; under the weight of the era, individual efforts are quite insignificant. Since resistance is futile, just lie flat and enjoy, change yourself if you can't change reality.

As a friend in the crypto community puts it, go out and get some fresh air, return to your original life, no longer be bound by candlestick charts, go outdoors for a walk, find beautiful people to date, and gather with friends…

You see, whether it's exchanges like Binance or OKX, they remind you daily to "Touch Grass" (go outside and touch some grass, stop living in the online echo chamber, and see the real world).

At this time, staying away from frequent trading, dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin and other core assets, and holding cash like USDT for continuous financial management is a blessing in life.

The second method is to "run."

For example, in 1990s Japan, many companies chose to go overseas, creating a second Japan abroad, and many individuals sought fortune in China, looking for new opportunities in non-garbage time markets.

Investment is the same; when A-shares are in garbage time, many A-share investors turn to the U.S. stock market and the crypto market.

In 2024, when the crypto market is also in garbage time, investors will shift their attention and liquidity to the U.S. stock market.

This is not speculation but the current reality; the U.S. stock market has siphoned off a large amount of liquidity from the crypto market this year, with many crypto billionaires making significant investments in Nvidia and Tesla, reaping substantial rewards. This also reflects another reality: the overall wealth effect in the crypto space this year is far less than that of the U.S. stock market.

The third method is to "compete."

In a situation where the pie hasn't grown, if you want to get a bigger piece, you can only take it from someone else. This is competition; you must be tough on others and even tougher on yourself.

The competition in the crypto market typically involves on-chain PVP and yield farming.

For small retail investors, there are greater opportunities on-chain. After all, in exchanges, your opponents may be market makers, exchanges, and project parties, but on-chain, where the chip structure is relatively clear, anyone can become a main player by participating early and then rely on convincing friends to complete liquidity exits.

However, as competition on-chain intensifies, the lifespan of each project becomes shorter, from one week to one day, or even to one hour. This is a more brutal battle, not to mention the various MEV bots and professional rug-pull teams on-chain.

Friends are online delivering; if you can compete, come and join.

Finally, I must say, there is garbage time in history, but individuals do not have it.

According to data from "A Millennium History of the World Economy," Western Europe saw virtually no growth in per capita GDP during the first millennium; it wasn't until 1000 to 1500 that there was improvement, and after the 18th century, it grew rapidly. China's per capita GDP was slightly higher than that of Western Europe in the first millennium, but it also experienced a millennium of stagnation; the same was true for the second millennium until about 900 years ago, with significant progress only in the last century.

From a higher perspective, reviewing history, humanity has spent thousands of years in "historical garbage time," with no increase in productivity and no appreciation of assets. The efforts of every individual and every generation seem to be "in vain," as if enduring a long winter.

Historic opportunities often lie in the hands of just one or two generations, but everyone still has to live, and live well.

Perhaps we have already missed the best time to invest in Bitcoin. In the current unchangeable situation, it may still be a relatively good and cost-effective choice.

Finally, a poem by Zhang Yuangan from the Southern Song Dynasty is quite fitting:

White clothes and gray dogs turn into floating clouds,

The glory of a thousand years gathers dust.

It’s good to sing a sad song and drink wine,

Why not compose together and cherish the remaining spring.

The scenery is all like the sun in the Central Plains,

The stench must be borne by our generation.

After the rain, flying flowers know their numbers,

Get drunk and win back your freedom.