In the future, will the starting point for "Golden Dogs" be 100,000 USD FDV?

Author: Joyce, BlockBeats

It has been a long time since meme coins were closely related to the dynamic hotspots of industry projects.

The hottest topic of discussion these days is the new blinks feature launched by Solana. Blinks opens up new trading scenarios, and whether from the perspective of public chain development or the application layer of Socialfi, it has enough attention value.

The meme coin with the most astonishing increase is SC. SC is a small-cap meme token demonstrated during the showcasing of the blinks feature by the Solana ecosystem liquidity protocol Meteora. This demonstration tweet was retweeted by Solana founder Toly and is regarded as the number one meme coin in the blinks hotspot.

Before this, the meme coins that could attract community attention were mostly unrelated to the dynamics of the crypto industry. Various drama celebrity coins left people puzzled, and TRUMP had more political connotation than crypto industry connotation. To make money in the crypto industry, one must not only pay attention to industry dynamics and worry about project development but also maintain trading sensitivity to the dramas that arise at any moment. The emergence of SC this time is satisfying enough; the smart money that closely follows industry dynamics bought in early, resulting in a hundredfold increase in two days, which can be considered a profit made through insight.

So, as a sufficiently degen meme coin with a large narrative space, after the attention has been ignited and the increase has reached a hundredfold, what should SC's market cap be? The answer is that it has not yet exceeded 10M (10 million USD).

As of the time of writing, SC has retreated from its peak, with a market cap of 7.9M.

This inevitably raises some questions. Do you remember SILLY from half a year ago? That dinosaur image of Solana founder Toly, which saw an increase of nearly 200 times in just a few days, with its market cap peaking over 150 million USD. Even now, although SILLY's price has already "flatlined" and has dropped over 90% from its peak, it still has a market cap of 15 million USD. Why, while still in a bull market, has the "ceiling" for popular meme coins shrunk?

The cooling market may be one aspect, but more importantly, perhaps the liquidity in the meme coin space has already been fragmented.

Moonshot vs. Pump.fun

The lucky meme coin SC (Star Cat) was launched on June 25 and is one of the first tokens released by the Dexscreener launch platform Moonshot.

If it hadn't been used by Meteora to demonstrate the blinks feature and caught a massive amount of traffic, SC might still be lying at the bottom. From the chart, we can see that SC experienced two sell-offs within a few hours, with large buy orders lifting the price only to be quickly sold off.

Moonshot is seen as a competitor to the Solana ecosystem launch platform Pump.fun. For the community, after Pump.fun issued over 10,000 tokens daily, the charting platform Dexscreener, which has a large user base, can also issue tokens now, which seems like a good thing. However, the performance of Moonshot's launch has not been particularly impressive; aside from SC, other tokens also do not have high market caps.

Even without that much liquidity buying, launching Moonshot is still a correct decision for Dexscreener. After all, being a token launch platform is indeed a profitable business. Since Pump.fun launched a few months ago, its cumulative revenue has exceeded 45 million USD, a figure that only recently Uniswap, the top traffic product in the crypto space, has just begun to reach since implementing its new fee policy in October 2023.

Although it hasn't produced a meme coin yet, Moonshot's appeal to users should not be underestimated. On the day of its launch, over 7,000 tokens were released, although only 27 of them reached the 500 SOL threshold to gain liquidity pools on Raydium. Two days later, these tokens also began to head towards zero.

More Token Creators, Fewer Buyers

As the number one meme coin in the blinks topic, SC was still rising when BLINK was already being promoted as "Dragon II." Searching the Dexscreener interface reveals five BLINK tokens on Solana, with market caps ranging from a few hundred dollars to 100,000 dollars.

Copycat tokens are not new; for example, after SILLY showed an astonishing increase last year, there emerged "counter-word" memes like YLLIS on Solana to ride on SILLY's popularity. Since the appearance of WIF, almost every day there have been tokens named "prefix + WIF" appearing on Solana's trading hot list.

However, the emergence of Pump.fun has significantly increased the number of copycat tokens. According to media statistics, last month, the number of tokens issued through Pump.fun accounted for 83% of the new token issuance on Solana. Clicking into Pump.fun, the sheer number of tokens appearing can be overwhelming. Users notice one token and have to search two or three lines down to clarify its name.

There are many tokens, but the number of buyers and the liquidity available for trading have not changed. In the eyes of investors, compared to buying tokens, issuing tokens has a higher profit expectation due to greater control. Based on this, the dilution of liquidity in the meme market is inevitable.

Taking the concept coins for the U.S. election as an example, not long ago, a media outlet called Pirate Wires stated on X that "Trump's official team is launching the token DJT on Solana." This unverified tweet pushed DJT's market cap to 500 million USD within four hours. Meanwhile, TRUMP dropped over 31% in four hours, with its market cap shrinking by over 200 million USD, and MAGA's market cap plummeted by 150 million USD, with other small coins like TREMP and BODEN also experiencing declines of 20%-40%.

After the community repeatedly questioned, the official identity of the DJT team was debunked, leading to a subsequent crash of DJT, while TRUMP and MAGA immediately rebounded significantly. Observing TRUMP's trend, it is evident that DJT had a particularly noticeable impact on its price.

TRUMP's trend between June 17 and 20

Finally, let's make a hypothetical scenario. The leading election concept coin TRUMP was born in August last year, soaring after hitting the Trump election hotspot. Although its price has halved from its peak, it still has a market cap of 380 million USD (384M). If TRUMP were to launch on Pump.fun or Moonshot, would it still have a market cap exceeding 100 million?