Foresight Ventures Weekly Report: U.S. Treasuries Sold Off, Rate Hike Expectations Lowered, Altcoin Market Rises
The cryptocurrency market underperformed the US stock market.Author: Mike, Foresight Ventures
A. Market Viewpoint
1. Macroeconomic Liquidity
Monetary liquidity is improving. The Federal Reserve expects inflation to further moderate. The dollar is approaching a new high for 2024, bolstered by interest rates and political turmoil. U.S. stocks are generally on an upward trend, with global funds flocking to U.S. stocks, seeing approximately $30 billion in new funds flowing into U.S. stocks over the past month. The crypto market has significantly underperformed compared to U.S. stocks.
2. Overall Market Trends
Top 100 market cap gainers:
This week, BTC experienced fluctuations and a decline, while the ETH/BTC exchange rate strengthened. Altcoin performance is lackluster, with the European Cup attracting market attention. The ETH ETF is likely to be approved in early July, and the market rebound is centered around the ETH ecosystem.
LDO: A leader in ETH staking, expected to continue developing its staking business. ETH has been determined not to be a security by the U.S. SEC, which is favorable for future ETH ETF staking operations.
ZK: An ETH ZK Layer 2, market-making by Wintermute, has had mediocre performance since its listing. ETH chain gas fees have hit an 8-year low.
ZRO: A star cross-chain bridge project, with a relatively stingy airdrop, its market cap is close to that of W in the same sector.
3. BTC Market Trends
1) On-chain Data
The market is consolidating with reduced volume. Despite the wide fluctuations, BTC investors are still maintaining profits. However, investor interest has declined, with spot derivatives markets and on-chain trading volumes continuing to shrink. Typically, after BTC reaches a new high, the market requires sufficient time to consolidate and digest the selling pressure.
Stablecoin market cap remains flat, with recent inflow trends slowing down.
Institutional funds have begun to see continuous net outflows. However, ETH has seen significant net inflows due to the upcoming spot ETF.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore, based on the total market cost, reflects the overall profit status of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it indicates a top range; when below 2, it indicates a bottom range. MVRV has dropped below the critical level of 1, indicating that holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 2.1, entering a middle stage.
2) Futures Market
Futures funding rates: This week, rates have slightly decreased. The rate is between 0.05-0.1%, with a lot of long leverage, indicating a short-term market top; the rate is between -0.1-0%, with a lot of short leverage, indicating a short-term market bottom.
Futures open interest: This week, BTC open interest continues to decline.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.3, market sentiment is neutral. Retail sentiment often serves as a contrarian indicator; below 0.7 indicates panic, above 2.0 indicates greed. The long-short ratio data is highly volatile, reducing its reference significance.
Futures long-short ratio: 2.3, retail sentiment for bottom fishing is high, indicating that the market likely has not fully declined. Retail sentiment often serves as a contrarian indicator; below 0.7 indicates panic, above 2.0 indicates greed. The long-short ratio data is highly volatile, reducing its reference significance.
3) Spot Market
BTC and SOL both adjusted on a weekly basis, likely until early August. ETH, TON, and BASE ecosystems are performing strongly. The ETH ETF is expected to be approved in early July, TON is set to list on Binance soon, and BASE is introducing new wallet traffic from Coinbase. The ETH ecosystem is likely to be the main focus of the market in the coming month.
B. Market Data
1. Total Locked Value (TVL) of Public Chains
2. TVL Proportions of Various Public Chains
This week, the TVL is $100.9 billion, down $10.7 billion, a decrease of 9.6%. This week, almost all mainstream public chains saw a decline in TVL, except for the MERLIN chain, which increased by 3%. The TRON chain decreased by 3%, BSC chain by 5%, SOLANA chain by 4%, BASE chain by 2%, and both BTC and POLYGON chains decreased by 4%, while the OP chain decreased by 5%. The AVALANCHE chain decreased by 12%. This month, mainstream public chains collectively saw a significant decline in TVL, with only the TON chain increasing by 15% this week and 108% this month. The market is currently in an adjustment phase, and the short-term performance of the TON and SOLANA ecosystems can be closely monitored.
3. Locked Value of Various Chain Protocols
1) ETH Locked Value
2) BSC Locked Value
3) Polygon Locked Value
4) Arbitrum Locked Value
5) Optimism Locked Value
6) Base Locked Value
7) Solana Locked Value
4. Changes in NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT Market Situation
3) NFT Trading Market Share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
This week, the floor prices of blue-chip NFT projects have significantly dropped, with the overall market continuing to decline. This week, CryptoPunks fell by 13%, BAYC by 17%, Pudgy Penguins by 28%, Space Doodles by 35%, Azuki by 23%, The Captainz by 16%, MAYC by 22%, and LilPudgys by 29%. In contrast, only Milady saw a 4% increase. Overall, the NFT market's trading volume has slightly decreased this week, with blue-chip project trading volumes also declining by about 20% over the past week, and the number of first-time and repeat buyers gradually decreasing. Overall, the NFT market remains extremely bleak, with a very harsh market environment.
5. Latest Financing Situation of Projects
6. Post-Investment Dynamics
1) Rango --- Cross-chain DEX and Cross-chain Bridge Aggregator
Rango announced the completion of a new round of financing, led by Binance Labs, with participation from Nomad Capital and Foresight Ventures, though the specific amount has not been disclosed. Rango aims to provide users with the best trading rates by aggregating liquidity from multiple DEXs and cross-chain bridges. Rango currently supports networks including Bitcoin, EVM chains, Solana, Tron, Cosmos ecosystem, Starknet, and other UTXO chains, with plans to support Bitcoin Layer 2, Ton, Move, and other blockchains in the future.
2) Space and Time --- Data
The Space and Time team announced their efforts over the past three years to provide the first sub-second ZK verifier for blockchain data. SQL proof is a foundational ZK technology that will usher in a new era of data-driven smart contracts and complex on-chain AI agents. It enables smart contracts and on-chain trading AI agents to monitor their chain, other chains, and even off-chain data's entire historical data using ZK proofs to ensure that nothing has been tampered with. For example, when any DeFi protocol, on-chain game, or lending market requires ZK proof for on-chain condition queries, its contract can send a query request to SxT and pay the computational fees required for executing the query and proof. The SxT endpoint contract will emit an event on-chain, which the SxT verifier node will listen for.
3) Pixelverse --- Web3 Entertainment Studio and Game Ecosystem
Pixelverse announced the completion of $5.5 million in financing, led by Delphi Ventures, Merit Circle, and Mechanism Capital, with participation from Bitscale Capital, Foresight Ventures, Ghaf Capital, Big Brain Holdings, and LiquidX, with angel investors including The Sandbox founder Sébastien Borget, Pudgy Penguins CEO Luca Netz, Dingaling, DCF GOD, Grail, and James Kwon.
Pixelverse is a cyberpunk-themed entertainment studio and game ecosystem aimed at driving mass adoption of Web3 by creating low-barrier immersive gaming experiences.
