The truth behind the crash of altcoins: After ETH, the "casino" exploded, but the "gamblers" have decreased

Original Title: Big Problem: Casinos Are Increasing, But Gamblers Are Decreasing?!

Original Author: Dayu

The foundation of the crypto world is asset issuance, which is essentially a variety of gambling.

1. The Explosion of Casinos After ETH

$ETH is the most successful asset issuance. Although it was slow, from ICOs to NFTs, and then to the ERC20 ecosystem, various gambling methods emerged one after another, but after several years, it finally lost momentum.

Once the ETH model succeeded, from $EOS to $DOT to $SOL, and then to $ARB and $OP, hundreds of public chains were launched, which essentially provided hundreds of new casinos.

These new casinos have no innovative gameplay. What the so-called fastest new casinos aim to do can actually be done in old casinos—especially now that the GAS is only 1, it can even be done more safely.

However, the number of gamblers in the entire region has not increased. The total funds used to purchase chips in casinos have only slightly increased compared to the peak of the bull market in 2021, from 136 billion to 150 billion.

Interestingly, each new casino is also charging membership fees. The owners and developers built the casinos and sent out invitations to all gamblers, saying, "Buy my casino pass; it may have no value, but other gamblers might want to speculate on it."

2. Casino Explosion, But Fewer Gamblers

Now, we can see a situation:

From 2021 to now, 300 new public chain casinos have opened, each launching its own casino pass gambling. However, what each casino is doing is basically the same as the old casinos: DEX, lending, and MEME, with nothing new.

The key point is that the number of gamblers has not increased; instead, it has decreased. According to Google Trends, the current interest in BTC and ETH is much lower than expected, almost similar to the bear market. This wave of seemingly grand BTC bull market has not attracted much attention, even with the ETF approval, it is only slightly better than the deep bear market.

As for the search volume for ETH, I initially thought it would be relatively high due to the anticipation of the ETF approval, but it appears to be very low—therefore, perhaps the situation after ETH's ETF approval has largely been priced in.

I remember in April, I conducted several surveys on Twitter and was shocked to find that the proportion of full positions and 80% positions was quite high, as shown in the following image:

I conducted several different surveys on multiple platforms, including internal WeChat groups, and the overall results were consistent.

The proportion of full positions is around 70-80%. In hindsight, this survey is quite meaningful—because if everyone is on the bus, waiting for altcoins to pump, and I have previously calculated the terrifying selling pressure of altcoins from multiple angles, such as 3 billion in May and around 2 billion in June, which will continue to grow in the future.

3. Why Are Altcoins Plummeting?

Because from project parties, market makers, exchanges to retail investors, everyone knows that altcoins are just a speculative game, and MEME is even more so. Therefore, when everyone is on the bus, as long as it doesn't rise, it poses a danger to altcoins.

Investment is about making friends with time, while holding altcoins is the enemy of time.

This is perhaps why I believe any staking should not be participated in; participating easily leads to becoming a profit provider. For example, those who participated in RBN staking were severely deceived by the manipulators—this coin pumped AEVO, while deceiving people into staking on the other side, tricking influencer @heyibinance, and cutting the leeks. As for whether the project succeeds later, it no longer matters.

Countless altcoins are surging in, each airily inviting you to get on board, but the blindfolded donkey is now overwhelmed, limping and battered, truly unable to bear it anymore.

The exquisite model of low circulation and high FDV, combined with the concentrated issuance of coins in a bull market, meets the pale and hollow-eyed leeks, creating a scene that is unbearable to watch.

4. Is "One Sun Changes Three Views" Outdated?

A traditional view is that "one sun changes three views," but I believe this saying has actually begun to become outdated without anyone noticing.

A few years ago, people were still in a naive and ignorant phase; pumping was indeed the most effective approach. However, by this year, if you have played on-chain MEME, you will find that while pumping can attract attention, more and more people can calmly view the project party's solo pumping.

It's not that the leeks have become smarter; they are simply scared of being cut. Behind "one sun changes three views," there must be a long-term upward trend for views to form. But now, if you look for the kind of situation in 2021 where Binance had a bunch of hundred-fold coins, you will find it very difficult; basically, Binance pumping a coin by one or two times is already a blessing.

As for on-chain, it’s even less worth mentioning; a MEME's lifespan can be as short as a few minutes or as long as a few days. One second it’s being praised to the skies, and the next second it’s withdrawing liquidity.

Having been cut too many times, some have summarized the typical pattern of this bull market: mutual non-receiving.

So, behind the expectation of "one sun changes three views," consider three questions:

If you are the manipulator, when the leeks are cautious and fearful, how confident are you that your pump won't turn into someone else's exit?

If you are a leek, do you have confidence that the manipulator is super rich and has a vision, only pumping and not dumping, and is full of love for the world? Could it be that he also wants to run first?

If you are a VC, after your 10x-100x chips finally unlock, do you want to wait for the project party to act, the manipulator to pump, and the retail investors to FOMO, or would you rather sell first and then see?

If everyone thinks this way, altcoins will be in trouble, a highly tense game of running away from poison.

5. Future Projection: AI Sucking Blood from the Crypto World

There will be a bull market for altcoins, such as when interest rates drop and liquidity overflows, but that will take a long time. By then, 90% of the current project parties will face massive unlocks, with an expected monthly supply of over 5 billion—50 billion in selling pressure is hard for the market to absorb, and I can see it, and so can others.

This will lead to the market running faster, and the most qualified to run are the locked chips of VCs and project parties. Therefore, considering that since March of this year, more and more project parties have been unlocking, this will lead to altcoins being a completely fast-paced game, and those who run slowly will fall into the poison circle.

Conclusion 1: If you want to play, it seems you can only play with major coins like BTC and ETH, or participate in altcoins with very agile movements.

The key is to earn less rather than suffer big losses—be cautious when getting on board, don’t get caught in a big drop, and if you’re stuck or the momentum is wrong, just observe first. If you make money, remember to continuously realize profits.

This approach tests your market sense, but assuming there are still upward opportunities in the market, mainstream coins will definitely not perform poorly, and the risks are relatively smaller. If you can sell high, you may earn less, but you won’t suffer big losses.

What if we have directly entered a bear market? Then everyone is in trouble, no exceptions.

I hardly do short-term trading, so judging these things is quite difficult. The way to overcome this difficulty is to control your position. Keep your USDT steady, don’t go all in or out, enter a little at a time and exit a little at a time, which makes it much easier.

Conclusion 2: If the crypto world doesn’t open new casinos and attract new traffic, the future deep bear market will be even more terrifying.

After the approval of BTC's ETF, BTC has become a target in the US stock market, a high-risk asset. However, currently, its attractiveness is far less than that of US tech stocks, which are continuously hitting new highs, like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Google.

Behind this is actually a significant logical change—the era of rapid advancement in the crypto world has passed.

A math problem:

You can consider ETH as "a level of innovation in human civilization," but unfortunately, there are only a few somewhat valuable applications on it, such as DEX and lending. Other things, like the leading PREP DEX, may have daily active users in the hundreds, so this thing is quite far from "achieving a level of innovation in human civilization."

This thing is now worth 400 billion.

Elon Musk's Tesla is now worth 500 billion; it is a giant that encompasses the future global autonomous driving system, AI robots, and massive AI data.

Looking at BTC, we in the crypto world can casually shout: Bitcoin will be 1 million dollars in the future! But friends, after entering the US stock market, BTC's market cap is 1.3 trillion. If it doubles, it will be roughly on par with Nvidia—now Nvidia is widely regarded as the cornerstone of the AI era, which is considered the third major leap in civilization after the steam revolution and the internet.

Don’t even mention 1 million dollars; even if it rises to over 100,000 dollars, surpassing Nvidia seems less reasonable.

Now let’s summarize:

1. Some project valuations are not low. The top value coins in the crypto world, BTC and ETH, compared to US stock value targets, are already not low in valuation.

2. The bubble in ecological projects is huge. The ecological projects in the crypto world generally have huge bubbles and massive selling pressure—people are not waking up and stopping playing altcoins; they are playing MEME because they have been cut by altcoins.

An altcoin with a market cap of 10 billion has 30 active users on-chain, expecting you to digest a monthly selling pressure of 5 billion. Where is the value?

3. MEME is not sustainable.

MEME is about consensus and emotion, with PEPE being the most eye-catching representative. However, after rising to tens of billions of dollars, the amount of capital needed to push further will increase. Without the massive funds of 2021 and top KOLs like Elon Musk promoting it, relying on the community to shout for 100 billion—I've seen this too many times in NFT groups, where the loudest shouter ends up cutting me the most.

As everyone knows, I love MEME the most because I am personally sensitive to emotion, community, market, and narrative, so I have made more money from it compared to value coins. However, precisely because I understand MEME, I do not believe MEME can support a major bull market for altcoins.

The more speculative the emotion of MEME, the more fervent the participants, the more tragic the collapse will be. Please believe this; it is an objective law of this world.

4. AI will continue to suck blood. The AI narrative in the US stock market is attracting large funds from around the world; they are revolutionizing, and all of this will continue against the backdrop of low value and high bubbles in the crypto world.

What if the US stock market crashes? Sorry, the crypto world will only crash harder.

In conclusion: The approval of ETH's ETF will only be a short-term benefit. The combined forces mentioned above will very likely force the market to move in the direction of least resistance.