How much longer does the darkness before dawn need to consolidate before we can see the light again?
The darkness before dawn, the reaccumulation in the middle of the cycle, the emergence of the cycle peak.Original Title: 《When Will The Chop End?》
Author: Crypto, Distilled
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
When will the consolidation end? Despite widespread pessimism and anger, the price of $BTC is only down 15% from its peak. Renowned trader @BobLoukas brings hope:
"The darkness before dawn, re-accumulation in the mid-cycle, the emergence of cycle peaks."
Here are his main points.
Monthly Chart:
We reached the historical peak of the previous cycle in the 16th month, while the previous cycle took over two years. We are currently in the third month of consolidation.
Historically, $BTC pauses after reaching an all-time high, then subsequently reaches the final cycle peak. Longer periods of consolidation mean the next rise will be healthier and stronger.
Weekly Chart:
Currently, there has been 14 weeks of consolidation following the ETF news, with a 12% drop from the peak. This fluctuation is expected after nearly doubling from recent lows in January 2024.
Notably, the 7-week cycle low in January was $38,000 (price doubled).
Why hasn't the market gone up?
Bob pointed out several key factors:
Whales from the previous cycle sold off near $60,000
Concerns about a potential monthly double top
Outflows from GBTC (selling pressure)
Shift from on-chain assets to ETF assets
ETF expectations priced in early
The Q4 2023 rise driven by ETF speculation
When will the consolidation end?
Be patient; it has tripled since September 2023 and needs a pullback to build momentum.
Similar to the cycle low after the doubling in Q1 2023, a broad base is forming ahead of the Q4 rise.
Consolidation may last until July or August, completing the bottom formation.
When might the market peak?
According to the 4-year cycle, the peak may still be far off.
Past cycles typically take 33-35 months from low to high.
Following this pattern, October 2025 is possible (with 16-17 months remaining).
The significant gap between the 10-month moving average and the price suggests a pullback may be needed.
Why is everyone so angry?
Bob explained that this bull market feels tough for many:
Chasing speculative altcoins (intense competition among investors).
Waiting for a 30-35% drop like previous cycles, missing opportunities and buying at the peak.
Possible Scenarios
We may soon see the next local bottom, possibly by the end of the month.
Bullish signs include higher lows, well above the January 2024 low, indicating market strength.
After this local bottom, one scenario is to sweep it and reclaim the highs.
The second possible scenario is a continued consolidation price trend.
This phase may last until September, forming a local bottom but not breaking historical highs.
The third possibility is a 30% drop again, which is typical in past bull markets. Similar to 2017, but now with ETFs, which is a significant difference.
Some believe it is impossible to reach around $55,000 with ETFs, but Bob strongly disagrees.
Convergence of Trends
All three trends converge around October, November, and December 2024, aiming to break the historical peak and rise further. During this period, Bitcoin's movements may significantly impact altcoin investment returns.
Resetting Sentiment:
Bob believes that after the surge in April, the market sentiment reset is positive. On-chain data shows that coins are shifting to long-term holders. As new holders accumulate in higher ranges, a solid base is formed. A drop could be a buying opportunity.
Bob's Buying Strategy
Bob's last purchase was near the cycle low around $17,000. Now, he is looking for potential buying opportunities for $BTC below $50,000. He suggests that those underexposed may consider increasing their positions during this consolidation.
Macroeconomic Peak in 2025
Bob expects the second phase of the cycle to be healthier. He believes the market peak will occur in the latter half of the current cycle.
However, the peak timing may vary, possibly in Q2 2024 (the 30th month) or earlier, and is less likely to be in Q4 2025.
