Ansem: "After the 618 discount, where will the cryptocurrency market head?"

Original source: Ansem X account

Author: Ansem, Crypto KOL

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

Crypto KOL Ansem provided a brief analysis of the current situation in the crypto market, which may help people understand the trends of different altcoins and the current position of the market. Below is the full content.

According to the K-line charts of BTC in Figure 1 and SOL in Figure 2, the prices of BTC and SOL have not yet fallen below the lows since March 2022, and there may still be a sideways consolidation before the next round of upward movement.

BTC Trend (Figure 1)

SOL Trend (Figure 2)

In Figure 3, AVAX (most altcoins are similar) has broken below the low since March of this year after hovering in a range for about 3 months. Is this the beginning of a new downward trend? Or is it a surrender before reclaiming key levels? Do you think these altcoins will regain strength, and is the current sell-off exaggerated?

AVAX Trend (Figure 3)

4) AAVE (an older altcoin) has never shown an upward trend this cycle and remains within the range of a bear market.

Are you betting that these altcoins will find new narratives and eventually outperform other tokens in the top 100 by market cap? Or are you betting that they will continue to underperform? What are the catalysts in different scenarios? (e.g., MKR's Endgame Plan)

AAVE Trend (Figure 4)

Most high-market-cap memes, such as PEPE and WIF, show trends similar to BTC and SOL; most newer infrastructures, like TIA, ALTLAYER, and DYM, resemble the trend of AVAX.

Many altcoins peaked in March of this year and have entered a downward trend. It can be said that they have experienced most of the decline, and people are just now realizing this. In any case, for altcoins to perform well from now on, a strong narrative is needed.

There are three possible scenarios for the future.

1) BTC and SOL remain strong as outliers, with the current lows holding steady during the consolidation of the past few months ($58,000 - $60,000 and $110 - $120). After further sideways consolidation, other altcoins have digested most of the decline and bottoming out (the author's current view belongs to this scenario, believing only in sideways consolidation/downward until the end of Q3/Q4).

2) The second scenario is that BTC and SOL are not outliers; they will eventually form a similar downward trend as other tokens.

In this case, we will see a true comprehensive "surrender" in the market, with SOL potentially reaching $85-$100 and BTC possibly hitting $48,000 - $52,000.

3) The possibility of the entire market peaking is considered low by the author, but it is clearly the worst-case scenario. This would mean that the total market cap of all altcoins only reaches 50% of the peak of the previous cycle.

In the author's view, this scenario is rather absurd; a more likely situation is sideways consolidation. With the ongoing flow of BTC and ETH ETFs, more application development is being built comprehensively, and the crypto market is merely passively fluctuating with the stock market.

Of course, the above content does not include any analysis of the macroeconomy, nor does it account for the scenario where stocks are being heavily sold off, which are also potential risks. Therefore, the above is merely the author's opinion.