Foresight Ventures Weekly Report: Crypto Institutions Compete to Embrace Compliance, Southeast Asian Market Booms
The cryptocurrency market follows the fluctuations of the US stock market and moves upward.Author: Mike, Foresight Ventures
A. Market Viewpoint
1. Macroeconomic Liquidity
Monetary liquidity is improving. The U.S. economic growth is slowing down, with 152,000 new jobs added in May, the lowest level in three months. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a nearly 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. The Bank of Canada became the first G7 country to cut rates, while the European Central Bank may soon initiate its first rate cut since March 2016. The market expects little divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and other countries. The U.S. dollar index has broken down on a weekly basis, while U.S. stocks continue to rise, reaching new historical highs. The crypto market is following U.S. stocks with upward fluctuations.
2. Overall Market Trends
Top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization:
This week, BTC has fluctuated upward. Market liquidity has improved, with previously underperforming new coins, gaming, and inscription sectors taking turns to rebound.
BNB: The platform token BNB has reached a new all-time high, and founder CZ is set to be released from U.S. prison in early October.
KAS: The POW public chain Kaspa will launch krc20, similar to the erc20 standard, and plans to issue many memes in the future. Users need to download the Kaspium Wallet in advance.
BENJI: BENJI is a dog meme on the Base chain. Coinbase launched a new wallet this week, significantly enhancing the on-chain user experience and facilitating the onboarding of new users to the Base chain.
3. BTC Market Trends
1) On-chain Data
The BTC chip structure is healthy, and fluctuations are nearing an end. Most BTC investors hold unrealized profits, and after two months of sideways consolidation, speculative enthusiasm has returned to the market. Short-term holders have borne the majority of market losses, a situation that typically occurs during pullbacks from new highs in a bull market.
The market capitalization of stablecoins has increased by 1%, with an overall positive trend in capital inflows.
Institutional funds have seen net inflows for four consecutive weeks, with over $15 billion flowing in since the beginning of the year.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore, based on the total market cost, reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it indicates a top range; when below 2, it indicates a bottom range. The MVRV has fallen below a critical level, indicating that holders are generally in a loss position. The current indicator is 2.4, entering the middle stage.
2) Futures Market
Futures funding rates: This week, the rates have slightly decreased. The rates are between 0.05-0.1%, with a higher proportion of long leverage, indicating a short-term market top; rates between -0.1-0% indicate a higher proportion of short leverage, suggesting a short-term market bottom.
Futures open interest: This week, BTC open interest has significantly increased, indicating that market leaders are entering.
Futures long-short ratio: 0.9, indicating a bearish market sentiment. Retail sentiment often serves as a contrarian indicator; below 0.7 indicates panic, while above 2.0 indicates greed. The long-short ratio data is highly volatile, reducing its reference value.
3) Spot Market
BTC is fluctuating upward, nearing historical highs. Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 15 consecutive days, with daily increases approaching three-month highs. Long-term investors holding BTC for over six months have increased their holdings for the first time in half a year. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has significantly increased, and the external U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs, leading to liquidity spillover.
B. Market Data
1. Total Locked Value in Public Chains
2. TVL Proportions of Various Public Chains
This week, the TVL is $109.8 billion, an increase of $3 billion, representing a growth rate of 2.8%. All mainstream public chains saw an increase in TVL this week, indicating a very positive market. The ETH chain increased by 3%, the TRON chain by 4%, the BSC chain by 8%, and the ARB chain, BLAST chain, BASE chain, MERLIN, and POLYGON chains all increased by around 3%. The rising star BLAST chain's TVL has surpassed $2.3 billion, increasing by over 40% in the past month, firmly securing the sixth position.
3. Locked Value of Various Chain Protocols
1) ETH Locked Value
2) BSC Locked Value
3) Polygon Locked Value
4) Arbitrum Locked Value
5) Optimism Locked Value
6) Base Locked Value
7) Solana Locked Value
4. Changes in NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT Market Situation
3) NFT Trading Market Share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
This week, the NFT market saw a decline in blue-chip floor prices, continuing the overall downward trend. CryptoPunks fell by 7%, Pandora plummeted by 49%, BAYC dropped by 7%, MAYC decreased by 3%, Azuki fell by 9%, Pudgy Penguins dropped by 4%, LilPudgys decreased by 5%, Milady rose by 2%, and CloneX increased by 22%. Overall trading volume in the NFT market has shown a significant rebound this week, but the number of first-time and repeat buyers has not increased with the rise in trading volume. The NFT market remains sluggish, and the switch to reverse market sentiment has yet to be discovered and activated.
5. Latest Financing Situation of Projects
6. Post-Investment Dynamics
1) IO.NET --- AI
Binance Launchpool will launch io.net (IO), allowing users to mine IO by staking BNB and FDUSD. The mining period is four days, starting at 8:00 AM Beijing time on June 7. Additionally, Binance will list IO on June 11 at 8:00 PM, opening trading pairs IO/BTC, IO/USDT, IO/BNB, IO/FDUSD, and IO/TRY. The maximum supply of IO tokens is 800 million, with an initial supply of 500 million. The Launchpool reward is 20 million tokens (4% of the initial supply), and the initial circulating supply is 95 million tokens (19% of the initial total supply). The BNB mining pool has a mining capacity of 17 million tokens, while the FDUSD mining pool has a capacity of 3 million tokens. The personal hourly mining cap is 17,708.33 tokens for the BNB pool and 3,125 tokens for the FDUSD pool.
2) Fhenix --- L2
Fhenix, an Ethereum Layer 2 focused on confidentiality, has completed a $15 million Series A financing round, led by Hack VC, with participation from Amber Group, Foresight Ventures, Primitive Ventures, GSR, Dao5, Collider Ventures, and Stake Capital.
Additionally, Fhenix has launched the open testnet Helium (initially planned to be named Renaissance), allowing developers to deploy "confidential" smart contracts on the Fhenix Layer 2 network. Fhenix uses the fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) technology from the cryptography company Zama to help ensure the confidentiality of its network. The Fhenix mainnet is expected to launch in the first quarter of next year.
To attract developers to join its testnet, Fhenix has established a funding program, the scale of which has yet to be finalized. This Series A financing has brought Fhenix's total funding to $22 million, following a $7 million seed round from companies like Multicoin Capital last September.
3) Avail --- Infra
Polygon's modular blockchain project Avail has announced the completion of a $27 million seed round financing, led by Founders Fund and Dragonfly, with participation from SevenX Ventures, Figment, Nomad Capital, and angel investors including former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan, Osmosis co-founder Sunny Aggarwal, Polygon's Chief Information Security Officer Mudit Gupta, and AltLayer COO Amrit Kumar.
Avail was spun off from Polygon in March 2023, led by Polygon co-founder Anurag Arjun. This round of financing will be used to develop three core products: its data availability solution (DA), Nexus, and Fusion.
