Hotcoin Research | What is the impact of the U.S. election on the crypto market, and which tokens will be ignited?

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is about to begin, and cryptocurrency has become an important topic of discussion for the first time, reaching unprecedented levels of significance and influence. Both major candidates, Trump and Biden, must face this rapidly emerging market and incorporate their attitudes and policy proposals regarding cryptocurrency into their campaign strategies.

1. Cryptocurrency: From Marginalization to Campaign Chip

The history of cryptocurrency can be described as one of innovation and controversy. From the birth of Bitcoin in 2009 to the existence of thousands of cryptocurrencies today, cryptocurrency has undergone a process of evolution from non-existence to acceptance, and now gradually towards mainstream adoption. Initially, cryptocurrency was merely an experiment by a few tech enthusiasts. However, over time, its value and influence have continuously increased, attracting more and more investors and institutions to this emerging market.

Due to its characteristics of decentralization and anonymity, cryptocurrency has also faced regulatory challenges and legal controversies during its development. Governments and financial institutions around the world have varied in their attitudes towards it; some countries actively accept and attempt to incorporate it into regulatory frameworks, while others adopt strict restrictions or even bans.

1.1 Analyzing the Political Maneuvering Behind the Approval of Ethereum ETFs

Following the approval and listing of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs can be seen as an important milestone for the cryptocurrency market, releasing significant positive signals and indicating that the U.S. government's acceptance of cryptocurrencies like Ethereum is gradually increasing.

In the initial application phase, many Ethereum ETF proposals were rejected by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for various reasons. The reasons for rejection mainly focused on the debate over whether Ethereum is a security, market manipulation, and the inadequacy of the regulatory framework. During the critical approval process, political power struggles became an important factor, with many Democratic lawmakers who previously criticized similar decisions remaining silent. As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, major parties and candidates hope to establish an image of supporting technological innovation and financial market reform among voters. The approval of Ethereum ETFs can be viewed as a positive signal from the government towards the cryptocurrency market, helping to garner support from young voters and the tech industry.

1.2 Cryptocurrency Policy is Becoming an Important Topic in the U.S. Election

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, cryptocurrency is becoming an important topic of discussion and a bargaining chip for attracting voters. The attitudes and policy proposals of the two main candidates, Trump and Biden, towards cryptocurrency not only directly affect their voter bases but may also have far-reaching impacts on the entire cryptocurrency market.

Minority groups and young people were key to Biden's victory in the 2020 election. Institutional polls show that the cryptocurrency ownership rate among these groups is higher than in others, making their support a crucial battleground for both Trump and Biden. For many voters, cryptocurrency is not just an investment tool but also a symbol of freedom and innovation. Particularly among young voters and tech enthusiasts, cryptocurrency enjoys broad support. Therefore, both Trump and Biden must incorporate their policy proposals regarding cryptocurrency into their campaign strategies to win over these voters.

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, cryptocurrency companies like Coinbase and Ripple, as well as crypto-friendly venture capital firms like a16z, have announced contributions to cryptocurrency super PACs, attempting to leverage "financial power" to gain a voice for the crypto industry.

2. U.S. Cryptocurrency Policy and Key Election Milestones

Government policy attitudes directly influence price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market and investor confidence. The U.S. government's stance on cryptocurrency significantly affects global market trends. As a global financial center, changes in U.S. policy not only directly impact the domestic market but also have important demonstration effects on global investors and regulatory policies in other countries.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. government's attitude has generally been cautious and conservative, focusing mainly on preventing market manipulation, protecting investors, and preventing financial crimes. The U.S. government regulates the cryptocurrency market through multiple agencies, including the SEC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).

2.1 Changes in Trump's Attitude Towards Cryptocurrency

During Trump's presidency, the U.S. government's attitude towards cryptocurrency underwent a complex evolution. Initially, the Trump administration was skeptical and negative towards cryptocurrency, believing it lacked intrinsic value and was prone to illegal activities. In 2019, Trump publicly stated on Twitter that he did not like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, calling them "not money, highly volatile, and without any substantial basis." He also emphasized that cryptocurrencies could be used for illegal activities, including drug trafficking and money laundering. This negative attitude had a detrimental impact on the cryptocurrency market during the early days of Trump's presidency, leading to a generally negative market reaction and investor unease regarding the future of U.S. cryptocurrency policy.

As time went on, the Trump administration's attitude gradually changed. In December 2018, Trump appointed Bitcoin supporter Mick Mulvaney as White House Chief of Staff, which was seen as a signal that the Trump administration was beginning to adopt a more open attitude towards cryptocurrency. Additionally, during his term, Trump signed several executive orders related to fintech and blockchain technology, aimed at promoting innovation and technological development.

In the 2024 election, Trump's attitude has undergone a 180-degree shift; he has publicly expressed support for the development of cryptocurrency, stating, "We must ensure that the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin happens in the U.S." He also indicated that if he were to be re-elected, he would commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, on his first day in office. Trump has also accepted cryptocurrency donations during his campaign, attempting to win voter support through policy adjustments. As of June 5, due to the growth of the Meme coin he holds, the value of the cryptocurrency assets in Trump's address has surpassed $30 million.

However, on June 4, Trump was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records in a Manhattan criminal trial, becoming the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted. This ruling adds an unpredictable new variable to the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

2.2 Biden Administration's Cryptocurrency Policy

For most of the time since Biden took office, the administration's attitude towards cryptocurrency has been relatively conservative and cautious, primarily focusing on strengthening regulation and risk prevention. In the early days of his administration, the Biden administration intensified regulatory oversight of the cryptocurrency market through the Treasury Department and the SEC, issuing a series of regulatory provisions targeting cryptocurrency exchanges and market participants.

As the election approaches, the Biden administration has gradually adjusted its policy stance. Recently, Biden's campaign team has begun to engage with some experts from the cryptocurrency industry, including those previously rejected by Biden, to seek guidance on his cryptocurrency policy. On May 23, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Financial Innovation and Technology Act of the 21st Century" (FIT21), which would transfer regulatory authority over digital currencies from the SEC to the more industry-friendly CFTC, and more clearly define the standards that make cryptocurrency tokens securities or commodities. Biden announced that he would not veto the FIT21 cryptocurrency bill if it were to pass.

Additionally, another U.S. presidential candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has also affirmed cryptocurrency technology, stating that "cryptocurrency is a symbol of freedom and transparency." He purchased 21 Bitcoins during his campaign and bought 3 Bitcoins for each of his children to express his support for using cryptocurrency as a medium of exchange.

2.3 Key Time Milestones in This U.S. Election

As the election progresses, candidates' attitudes and policy proposals regarding cryptocurrency will significantly impact the market. Particularly during key election milestones, candidates' policy statements and campaign activities may trigger significant market fluctuations. Here are some key time milestones in this U.S. presidential election:

June 27: First Debate

Presidential debates can greatly influence the election landscape, and the first debate is particularly important. Candidates' attitudes and policy proposals regarding cryptocurrency will receive more exposure during the debate, and the market may react swiftly based on the debate results.

July 15-18: Republican National Convention

During the Republican convention, candidates will officially accept their nominations and outline their campaign platforms. If Trump further clarifies his support for cryptocurrency policies at the convention, the market may be buoyed.

August 19-22: Democratic National Convention

Similar to the Republican convention, during the Democratic convention, Biden will officially accept his nomination. If the Biden team announces new cryptocurrency-friendly policies at the convention, it may positively impact the market.

September 10: Second Debate

The second debate will be an important opportunity for candidates to further clash. Any discussion of cryptocurrency policy could lead to market volatility.

November 5: National General Election

Election Day is the most critical milestone. The election results will directly affect the direction of cryptocurrency policy for the next four years, and the market may experience significant fluctuations once the results are announced.

December 2024: Electoral College Voting

The Electoral College's voting will ultimately confirm the president-elect. While this milestone is not as significant as Election Day, it may still impact the market, especially if there are disputes over the election results.

January 20, 2025: Presidential Inauguration Day

The elected president will officially take the oath of office on this day. The new president's inaugural address and subsequent policy statements will have significant implications for the cryptocurrency market.

3. Overview of Popular Tokens in This U.S. Presidential Election

In this U.S. presidential election, various cryptocurrencies related to the candidates have become the focus of the market, reflecting investors' expectations and confidence in the candidates' policies. These tokens are not only speculative assets but also important means of expressing political positions and cultural identities.

MAGA ($MAGA)

$MAGA is a token named after Trump's campaign slogan "Make America Great Again," becoming one of the most closely watched cryptocurrencies in this election. The $MAGA token not only represents Trump's political ideology but also tightly connects supporters through blockchain technology. Since the beginning of 2024, the $MAGA token has performed exceptionally well in the market, experiencing significant price increases multiple times.

Doland Tremp ($TREMP)

$TREMP is another popular token related to Trump, cleverly playing on his name. Since its issuance, this token has garnered widespread attention in the market, especially in the context of Trump's repeated mentions of cryptocurrency during his campaign. The design of the $TREMP token is intended to support Trump's campaign while also providing investors with an opportunity to express their political stance.

Jeo Boden ($BODEN)

$BODEN is a token named after Joe Biden, which has also attracted attention in this election. The issuance of the $BODEN token aims to support Biden's campaign and attract investors who are optimistic about Biden's cryptocurrency policies. Unlike Trump's tokens, the $BODEN token has shown relatively stable market performance, but as Biden's policy stance towards cryptocurrency becomes more favorable, it also supports the market performance of the $BODEN token.

DAO Governance ($PEOPLE)

The $PEOPLE token represents the concept of a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), and the $PEOPLE coin serves as a donation receipt for contributors to ConstitutionDAO. ConstitutionDAO aims to raise funds through a DAO to attempt to purchase the last privately owned first edition of the U.S. Constitution at a Sotheby's auction, thereby preventing a wealthy individual from owning it alone. Although the auction was unsuccessful, this constitutional auction can also be seen as a challenge from decentralized organizations to traditional capital.

Populist American Coin ($USA)

American Coin ($USA) is a token with strong populist attributes, with promotional language similar to the U.S. Declaration of Independence, giving the $USA token more cultural and political significance. The holders of the $USA token are mostly investors with a strong sense of identification with American culture and history, who hope to express their political stance and cultural identity through this token.

Meme Coin ($PEPE)

Meme Coin ($PEPE) stands out in the cryptocurrency market for its humor and satire. During the U.S. election, the $PEPE token has also become a hotspot for investors. During the 2016 U.S. election, the Pepe meme began to be associated with the presidential election. The holders of $PEPE are primarily young investors who enjoy humor and satire, using this token to express their views on political and social phenomena.

Eight Tokens Accepted for Donations by Trump's Team

On May 22, Trump's campaign team launched a webpage at https://www.donaldjtrump.com/crypto, allowing donors to contribute to Trump's joint fundraising committee through Coinbase. Trump's team accepts donations in eight cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, DOGE, SHIB, XRP, USDC, SOL, and 0x (ZRX). This move not only expands Trump's funding sources but also demonstrates his recognition and support for cryptocurrency. Following Trump's announcement of accepting donations, the market reacted swiftly, with prices generally rising.

4. Outlook on the U.S. Election and Cryptocurrency Policy

The impact of this U.S. presidential election on the cryptocurrency market will be profound and complex. Whether Trump is re-elected or Biden is re-elected, both outcomes will have varying degrees of impact on the cryptocurrency market.

4.1 Trump or Biden?

If Trump is re-elected, it can be expected that he will continue to adopt a cryptocurrency-friendly policy. He has repeatedly expressed support for cryptocurrency during his campaign and accepted cryptocurrency donations, indicating his recognition and importance of this emerging market. Trump may push for more lenient regulatory policies, reduce restrictions on the cryptocurrency market, and encourage innovation and development. However, Trump's decision-making style is often aggressive and erratic, which may lead to significant market fluctuations.

If Biden is re-elected, he may adopt a more balanced policy. During his term, he has already shown a focus on cryptocurrency regulation but has also gradually recognized the importance of the cryptocurrency market and adjusted some policies. If Biden is re-elected, he may continue to strengthen regulation of cryptocurrency. Additionally, compared to Trump, Biden's policy style is relatively moderate and stable, which may lead to greater market stability.

According to a survey by Paradigm, cryptocurrency holders this year are more inclined to support Trump over Biden, with a ratio of 48% to 39%, while 13% remain undecided.

4.2 Outlook on U.S. Cryptocurrency Policy Trends

In the coming years, the U.S. government's policy direction in the cryptocurrency field will continue to influence the development of global markets. Whether Trump or Biden is elected, the following two major policy trends may gradually emerge:

1. Encouraging innovation and application of blockchain technology: Acknowledging the potential and innovativeness of cryptocurrency technology, especially in applications in finance, logistics, and healthcare, adopting a more rational and transparent attitude, and having regulatory agencies actively participate in the development of cryptocurrency to protect public interests rather than viewing cryptocurrency as a threat.

2. Improvement of the regulatory framework: In the future, the U.S. government will further improve the regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, including monitoring for market manipulation, anti-money laundering measures, and transparent trading rules and investor protection mechanisms.

3. Adjustments to tax policies: As the cryptocurrency market expands, the government may adjust tax policies to better manage and collect cryptocurrency transaction taxes.

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, cryptocurrency will play an increasingly important role in this political contest. In the coming months, we will witness the further elevation of cryptocurrency's status in politics, economics, and society, and observe how it influences election outcomes and market trends. Investors need to closely monitor policy dynamics and develop sound investment strategies to navigate the uncertain market environment and seize potential investment opportunities.

Hotcoin is closely following the progress of the U.S. election and its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market. It has launched $MAGA, $TREMP, $PEOPLE, $PEPE, and the eight tokens (BTC, ETH, DOGE, SHIB, XRP, USDC, SOL, and ZRX) accepted for donations by Trump's team, and will continue to monitor and launch related quality assets. For cryptocurrency investment, come to Hotcoin, where the hottest quality assets are available first and fast!