NOT All the Way to the Top, What Factors Drove the Surge?
NOT has a large increase, but it may adjust.Author: Defi_Mochi & Crypto Stream
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Public data shows that the $NOT token has surged nearly 40% in the past 24 hours and over 280% in the last 7 days.
What factors have driven the explosive rise of NOT? Different analysts have provided answers based on the token structure, recent catalysts, and movements in the secondary market.
We have organized and compiled some of the reasons, as follows.
@CryptoStreamHub: Staking, Burning, and Market Manipulation
Why the Surge?
Staking functionality
Project team burning $NOT tokens
Market manipulators driving up the price
One reason is the reduction in circulating supply through staking functionality, along with the token burning conducted by the ecosystem project team.
Approximately 18 million $TON (about $350,000) have been burned and permanently removed from circulation (reducing selling pressure). While this may not seem like much, investors might anticipate more burns in the future, as this is cryptocurrency, and valuations do not necessarily have to be rational.
Another claim heard is that market manipulators are pushing up the token price. $NOT is supported by Binance, and people often discuss how Binance-supported tokens magically rise.
For example, I recently read a blog post titled, "The Binance Cartel is Real."
(Note: The term "cartel" refers to a monopoly structure, and the author is implying potential manipulation of the market and specific token prices.)
Will the Uptrend Continue?
It's hard to estimate. Personally, I would stay away from buying this token right now due to the high risk. There are other tokens in the market with better risk-reward ratios.
On the other hand, more liquidity may flow from $TON to $NOT, as it is now considered a blue-chip ecosystem token.
Reasons to be Bullish on $NOT
Everyone knows that $NOT is the token for a popular social click game on Telegram, which later added leaderboard and team features. At its peak, it reached an astonishing 35 million users!
Today, $NOT is the main token of the Notcoin ecosystem, where you can explore and play mini-games on Telegram.
Additionally:
Listed and supported on Binance
100% of tokens are in circulation
Leveraged bet on the $TON ecosystem
Reasons to be Bearish on $NOT
After a significant rise, tokens often have a high probability of correcting, especially in speculative markets like the one we see with $NOT.
As more investors buy the token out of fear of missing out (FOMO), the likelihood of a correction increases. These investors typically lack confidence and can be easily scared off by an overall market correction.
Summary
Significant rise, potential for correction
Ecosystem projects may divert liquidity
NOT is the first "premium" token in the TON ecosystem. The term "premium" refers to its attention from investors and support from the $TON ecosystem and Binance.
It is certain that other tokens will follow.
A better strategy might be to research and look for other tokens in the $TON ecosystem that could follow $NOT's success.
If you decide to buy the token at the current price, it is advisable to pay special attention to your risk management framework.
Risk Management Suggestions
Consider dollar-cost averaging
Never invest more than you can afford to lose
Anticipate the feelings that come with corrections
Develop additional risk management steps
@defi_mochi: Buying the Dip, TON BETA Narrative, and Low Circulation
In the past few days, the following projects have achieved returns of nearly 2-4 times:
Here’s a method to execute this strategy for significant liquidity returns.
1. Accumulation Phase
During periods of high volatility, the market experiences sharp fluctuations, causing many token prices to drop by 60-70%.
When other traders are complaining about losses, these volatile conditions are actually the best time to observe market strength and accumulate.
Here’s an example of the accumulation of $NOT while $BTC recently dropped to $66k (from May 23 to 24).
One way to confirm this is to observe the changes in $NOT/$BTC; when $NOT is no longer highly correlated with the downward trend of $BTC, it indicates that accumulation is occurring.
2. Catalysts/Speculation
In recent weeks, speculation regarding a potential $TON listing has been very active, further driving up the price of $NOT, as $NOT is the only spot "beta" token related to $TON.
3. Low Market Cap/No Recent Unlocking Plans
Although I have recently discussed low market cap tokens with high fully diluted valuations (FDV) multiple times, the market generally knows that most market makers are motivated to create a "soft bottom" for tokens (maintaining a certain price) and tend to push prices up during low circulation, artificially supporting the project’s book value valuation.
For this strategy, you should look for tokens with a market cap below $500 million.
Examples:
$NOT 480m
$TNSR 99m
$BB 128m
Ensure that the tokens have no recent unlocking plans, as this could depress token prices. Please be cautious, as this is not the safest/risk-free strategy.
