Foresight Ventures: DOGE MEME prototype passes away, BTC ETF continues to see net inflows
The three major U.S. stock indices have all reached historical highs, and the cryptocurrency market has followed suit with a strong rebound.Author: Mike
A. Market Viewpoint
1. Macroeconomic Liquidity
Monetary liquidity is improving. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that policymakers are concerned about insufficient progress in reducing inflation, suggesting that the wait-and-see approach of maintaining high interest rates should continue for a longer period. Expectations for interest rate cuts have fluctuated, leading to a weekly decline in the dollar index. U.S. tech stocks continue to lead the market, with all three major indices reaching historic highs. The cryptocurrency market has followed suit with a strong rebound.
2. Overall Market Trends
Top 100 by market capitalization gainers:
This week, BTC rebounded, with ETH leading significantly. The market focus is on ETH and the Meme sector.
ETH: The U.S. SEC has requested an expedited update of the ETH ETF application documents, increasing the probability of approval from 25% to 75%. Several ETF deadlines have been extended from May 23 to August 7. However, Bloomberg predicts that the ETH ETF will only reach 10% of the BTC ETF's scale.
ZKSYNC: The L2 Zksync plans an airdrop in June, with a total token supply of 21 billion, and the market expects a valuation of $10 billion. Competing projects ARB, OP, and STRK are around $12 billion in market capitalization.
LISTA: Binance's Metadrop platform will list LISTA, which is a liquid staking and decentralized stablecoin protocol. The latest two BBs, LISTA, are projects originally from the Bsc chain Auction, developed by the Hay team, with some innovation shortcomings.
3. BTC Market Trends
1) On-chain Data
The number of long-term BTC holders is decreasing, while short-term holders are increasing. The market is showing some divergence, with the speed of new capital inflow slowing down and long-term volatility converging.
The market capitalization of stablecoins remains flat, and the long-term fundamentals are still positive.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore, based on the total market cost, reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it indicates a top range; when below 2, it indicates a bottom range. The MVRV has fallen below the critical level of 1, indicating that holders are generally at a loss. The current indicator is 2.5, entering the middle stage.
Institutional funds have reversed the trend of outflows for two consecutive weeks, and investor sentiment is optimistic.
2) Futures Market Trends
Futures funding rate: This week, the rate has slightly increased. The rate is between 0.05-0.1%, with a lot of long leverage, indicating a short-term market top; the rate is between -0.1-0%, with a lot of short leverage, indicating a short-term market bottom.
Futures open interest: This week, BTC open interest has significantly increased, indicating that market leaders are entering.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.3, indicating neutral market sentiment. Retail sentiment often acts as a contrarian indicator; below 0.7 indicates panic, while above 2.0 indicates greed. The long-short ratio data is highly volatile, reducing its reference significance.
3) Spot Market Trends
BTC has rebounded close to new highs. The probability of ETH spot ETF approval has significantly increased, triggering a broad rally in altcoins.
B. Market Data
1. Total Locked Value of Public Chains
2. TVL Proportions of Various Public Chains
This week, the total TVL is $106.3 billion, an increase of about $13.1 billion, with a growth rate of 14%. ETH has risen nearly 30% this week, directly breaking through $3,800, leading a small market surge. All mainstream public chains' TVL increased this week, with ETH chain up 20%, TRON chain up 3%, BSC chain up 9%, SOLANA chain up 7%, ARB chain up 18%, BLAST chain up 28%, and the most outstanding MERLIN chain skyrocketing 171%. Merchant Finance, a financial lending platform developed on the Merlin chain, saw its TVL grow by 41,730% in the past week, allowing users to engage in peer-to-peer lending through smart contracts.
3. Locked Value of Various Chain Protocols
1) ETH Locked Value
2) BSC Locked Value
3) Polygon Locked Value
4) Arbitrum Locked Value
5) Optimism Locked Value
6) Base Locked Value
7) Solana Locked Value
4. Changes in NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT Market Situation
3) NFT Trading Market Share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
This week, the floor prices of blue-chip NFT projects fluctuated, and the overall market performance remained sluggish. The leading rise of ETH this week did not bring any signs of recovery to the NFT market. This week, BAYC fell by 5%, CryptoPunks fell by 12%, DeFrogs fell by 3%, LilPudgys fell by 8%, while Pudgy Penguins and Azuki both rose by 10%, Milady rose by 27%, MAYC rose by 6%, Pixelmon rose by 21%, and DeGods fell by 29%. NFT market trading volume continues to decline, with no significant rebound in the number of first-time and repeat buyers.
5. Latest Financing Situation of Projects
6. Post-Investment Dynamics
1) MYX Finance --- DeFi
MYX_Finance is a revolutionary derivatives protocol characterized by a highly scalable and cost-effective matching pool mechanism (MPM).
2) Morph --- Layer2
Morph will collaborate with @LaMultisig to host the Consumer Chain Day event on May 29 (Wednesday) GMT. Meanwhile, the first season of Morph Zoo has released multiple opportunities to earn Morph Points, which can unlock corresponding airdrop opportunities in the future.
3) Oyl --- Wallet
Oyl has launched Oyl Wallet, redefining the Bitcoin wallet experience to adapt to the new wave of the BTC ecosystem. With the launch of the private beta, Oyl is inviting early users to experience Ordinals and Bitcoin DeFi.
Oyl Wallet is redefining the way users interact with Bitcoin: Integrated platform: All essential functions (such as purchasing, logging in, and UTXO management) are directly integrated into the wallet, reducing reliance on external applications and markets. Advanced trading tools: Simplifying complex trading tools, transforming a complicated multi-application experience into a smooth one-click functionality.
Bitcoin DeFi: Providing in-wallet tools for professional traders and enthusiasts, continuously innovating user functionalities within a single application. Oyl Wallet is built on the robust infrastructure of Sandshrew and Metashrew. Features like market aggregators, batch signing, and custom indexing allow developers to seamlessly integrate and experiment with new protocols and applications.
