The politicization of cryptocurrency: Will Bitcoin influence the 2024 U.S. election?
The era when cryptocurrencies were politically marginalized is gone forever.Original Title: 《 Crypto in Politics: Will Bitcoin Decide the 2024 Election? 》
Author: M6 Labs
Translation: 深潮TechFlow
Trump's shift on cryptocurrency and Biden's regulatory stance may influence voter sentiment.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, traditional topics like foreign policy and culture wars have taken center stage. However, a new topic seems to have emerged that could play a significant role in the country's elections—Bitcoin (and the entire cryptocurrency market). Let's take a look at the rise of cryptocurrency in political discussions.
Cryptocurrency and Politics
Just four years ago, the idea of presidential candidates discussing Bitcoin during their campaigns seemed far-fetched. However, significant changes began to occur during last year's primaries.
Notable candidates like Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. attended Bitcoin conferences, appeared on major Bitcoin podcasts, and incorporated plans focused on Bitcoin into their campaign platforms.
A real turning point came when President Donald Trump noticeably deviated from his previous stance. He had once disparaged Bitcoin as a threat to the dollar. However, his tone now seems more accepting of Bitcoin. In response to what he described as the Biden administration's "high-pressure tactics" against the cryptocurrency industry, Trump announced his support for keeping the industry in the U.S. Additionally, the Trump administration opened the door for cryptocurrency campaign donations.
Current Environment
The Biden administration's strict stance on cryptocurrency regulation has sparked a strong backlash from the industry and its supporters. Senator Elizabeth Warren's attacks on cryptocurrency have been particularly fierce, leading several large cryptocurrency companies to leave the U.S. in search of a more favorable regulatory environment. This regulatory hostility could alienate a significant portion of American voters, especially as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin gain mainstream recognition.
Hayden Adams, founder and CEO of Uniswap, urged President Biden to reconsider his administration's attitude toward cryptocurrency and warned that current policies could drive voters away. In an article on May 12, Adams criticized the Biden administration for allowing Senator Warren and the SEC to "wage a full-scale war" on cryptocurrency, suggesting that Republicans are leveraging this stance to shift toward a more pro-cryptocurrency position.
Since taking office, President Biden has signed an executive order on digital assets and nominated Gary Gensler as the chair of the SEC. Under Gensler's leadership, the SEC has intensified its enforcement against cryptocurrency companies, leading to criticism of inconsistent enforcement. With significant cases against companies like Kraken, Coinbase, Ripple, and Binance, the government's stance has faced backlash from the cryptocurrency community, increasing pressure on Biden to adjust policies ahead of the upcoming election.
Voter Sentiment
Recent polls show that a considerable number of voters in key swing states now view Bitcoin and cryptocurrency policy as an important issue. Political action committees (PACs) supporting Bitcoin and cryptocurrency have further amplified this shift, investing millions not only in presidential campaigns but also in Senate and House races. This level of investment and political engagement from the cryptocurrency community indicates that its influence in American politics is steadily solidifying.
Over 20% of Americans own Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, which cannot be underestimated in terms of its potential impact on the electoral landscape. President Trump's shift to a pro-cryptocurrency stance can be seen as a strategic move to capture this growing demographic, especially in a tight election cycle.
Given that recent presidential elections have been decided by narrow margins, the cryptocurrency voter bloc is likely to sway the outcome of the 2024 election.
Voter Insights
A national survey conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale titled "2024 Election: The Role of Cryptocurrency" revealed some key insights.
Voter Concerns and Cryptocurrency
Inflation is the top concern for American voters, who prioritize economic stability and the ability to pay bills over other values such as family, patriotism, and community involvement. This concern aligns with Bitcoin's appeal, as Bitcoin is often viewed as a hedge against currency devaluation due to its hard supply cap. Nearly half of voters are waiting for clearer policies before investing in cryptocurrency, indicating a demand for regulatory clarity.
Young People's Acceptance of Cryptocurrency
Compared to traditional stocks, younger voters, particularly Gen Z and millennials, show a clear preference for cryptocurrency, with ownership rates of 31% and 35%, respectively, compared to 17% and 24% for stocks. The vast majority of these young demographics believe that "cryptocurrency and blockchain technology are the future of finance," with 54% of Gen Z and 58% of millennials expressing this view. Furthermore, 68% of voters aged 18-34 would be more likely to invest in cryptocurrency if there were clearer regulatory guidelines, highlighting the importance of regulatory clarity for broader cryptocurrency adoption.
Bitcoin and Political Campaigns
The integration of Bitcoin into political campaigns highlights several key trends.
It emphasizes the increasing importance of digital literacy and understanding of technology among presidential candidates. As digital assets become more intertwined with the economy, candidates who can credibly articulate their potential benefits and challenges may gain an advantage.
Political discussions surrounding Bitcoin and cryptocurrency may encourage greater regulatory clarity. As candidates outline their positions, they will need to respond to the industry's calls for clear, consistent, and fair regulation to foster innovation while protecting consumers.
Bipartisan Divisions
While cryptocurrency has garnered bipartisan support, Republicans clearly favor it more. Politico reported that a key vote on a major cryptocurrency policy bill, "first considered by the full Congress," has essentially stalled in the Democrat-controlled House and Senate. Meanwhile, the most powerful current supporters of cryptocurrency are Republicans, such as Senator Emmer and Cynthia Lummis.
Critics argue that political support for cryptocurrency often stems from economic interests rather than moral advocacy, but it is undeniable that cryptocurrency is an increasingly important political issue. For some, it represents a defining issue of our time, embodying not just an investment opportunity, but a movement, a philosophy, and a way of life.
For many cryptocurrency supporters, this issue is a matter of survival; a second term for Biden could mean more enforcement regulation, more gridlock on actual cryptocurrency legislation, and more anti-cryptocurrency rhetoric from the highest political office. During Biden's term, the hostility of U.S. lawmakers and regulators toward cryptocurrency has increased significantly, greatly impacting the global industry.
Recently, the reconstruction platform EigenLayer, hailed as a major innovation in blockchain, faced severe criticism due to a highly restrictive airdrop. Under the current regulatory regime, this is essentially EigenLayer's only move unless it wants to risk being sued by the SEC.
In this environment, it is understandable why figures like Ryan Selkis, Mike Dudas, and Mark Cuban believe the crypto industry must ally with Republicans to secure favorable policies. Critics may argue that former President Donald Trump's recent support for cryptocurrency is opportunistic, aimed at portraying Biden as out of touch. However, in a climate where the U.S. crypto industry feels under attack by the government, having a prominent figure like Trump willing to step up in support could be a welcome development.
Potential Risks of Politicizing Cryptocurrency
Trump's embrace of cryptocurrency carries potential risks. In recent years, the digital asset market has experienced dramatic booms and busts, with major industry players like Sam Bankman-Fried being imprisoned for wrongdoing. This shift also poses risks for Washington's cryptocurrency lobbying groups. Trump could make the political partisanship of digital asset regulation even stronger. The industry has spent years and millions of dollars in campaign contributions trying to build support across both parties, which is likely key to the legislative goals of cryptocurrency companies.
Conclusion
Fifteen years after Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin, it has evolved from a novel digital asset into a significant political issue. As the U.S. approaches its most closely watched presidential election, Bitcoin's role reflects not only its growing economic significance but also its potential to influence policy at the national level.
Whether Bitcoin will be a decisive factor in the 2024 election remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the era of cryptocurrency being on the political margins is over. As we move forward, the dialogue among policymakers, industry leaders, and voters is likely to shape the trajectory of this digital revolution in ways we are just beginning to understand.
