Bitcoin Market Outlook: What Do Optimists, Neutrals, and Pessimists Say?

Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

Since Bitcoin completed its fourth halving on April 20, the price of Bitcoin has once again entered a volatile range, dropping to around $56,500 on May 1, and currently standing at approximately $62,800.

The halving event and the anticipated "Rune Boom" have not brought new growth points to Bitcoin's price trend. Recently, market opinions on the future rise and fall of Bitcoin have once again diverged. Based on the previously published article "BTC Completes Its Fourth Halving in History, How Do Various Institutions Predict the Future Market?", Odaily Planet Daily will briefly summarize the viewpoints on Bitcoin's trend for readers' reference.

Positive View: Upward Trend Remains the Main Theme

SkyBridge Capital: BTC Market Cap Will Eventually Exceed Gold

On April 18, SkyBridge Capital CEO Anthony Scaramucci stated in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin's market cap will ultimately exceed the valuation of gold ($16 trillion). Bitcoin is an unprecedented high-quality asset in the 5,000-year history of humanity. He noted that Bitcoin still has a long way to go to catch up with gold's $16 trillion market cap, but he believes that as regulatory agencies recognize Bitcoin, this gap will narrow over time.

Bitwise: Firmly Bullish on BTC Price

On April 23, three days after the Bitcoin halving, Bitwise Asset Management reaffirmed its bullish stance on Bitcoin, expecting it to perform excellently in the next 12 months.

Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen stated, "Historically, after halving, miners have seen some consolidation in the entire industry. Some miners were not prepared to cope with the changes in mining economics post-halving. From a price perspective, we usually see that the year before and the year after halving are the best-performing years for Bitcoin in a three or four-year cycle, and this has happened. Before the halving, we certainly had a great year. We rebounded from the lows of 2022, had a great 2023, and we have a good start in 2024. I truly believe we will continue to test new highs in 2024 and the year after the halving."

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan made bold predictions about market changes before the fifth halving of Bitcoin (expected to occur in April 2028), stating, "During the next halving period, Bitcoin's market volatility will decrease, portfolio allocations and ETF fund flows will increase, some central banks will participate, and Bitcoin's target price will be at least $250,000."

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley predicted that wealth management companies would increase their holdings in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a forecast made in light of the expectation that Bitcoin ETFs would gain greater momentum after the halving.

Jan3CEO: BTC Price Expected to Reach $1 Million

On April 26, Jan3CEO Samson Mow suggested that the recent halving event, combined with a surge in demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs, could trigger the emergence of an Omega candle pattern when supply shocks meet demand shocks, potentially pushing Bitcoin's price to the milestone of $1 million.

Luxor Releases Q1 Report: BTC Price to Recover in Five Months

On May 2, mining pool and hash power market Luxor released its Q1 2024 report, which indicated that based on data from hash power futures (essentially futures contracts, although they are traded over-the-counter rather than on exchanges) trading at a premium, Bitcoin's price is expected to recover within five months, and at least in the short term, the price has already bottomed out. On May 1, the price of Bitcoin hash power fell to a historical low of $44.43 per PH/day.

Bitcoin Hash Power Price Related Data

TD Cowen: BTC Price May Rise in May

On May 7, TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza stated that Bitcoin's price in May may have significant upward potential, and that Michael Saylor's company MicroStrategy (MSTR) is expected to see substantial gains in its stock by the end of the year. He noted that May 15 is the deadline for institutional investment managers to submit their 13-F forms to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). If more companies purchased the newly approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first quarter, it would indicate that Bitcoin has gained further institutional recognition. Additionally, the SEC's potential rejection of Ethereum ETFs could shift a lot of capital's focus to Bitcoin, thereby generating incremental demand.

Analyst PlanB: BTC Price Expected to Reach $500,000 by 2028

On May 7, PlanB posted on the X platform that the average price of Bitcoin during the 2020-2024 halving cycle was $34,000, slightly lower than the $55,000 predicted by the S2F model in 2019, but still within a normal range, considering that Bitcoin's price was below $4,000 at the time of prediction (so the prediction results are quite good). The improved S2F model using new data shows similar parameters and results: from 2024 to 2028, Bitcoin's price is expected to reach $500,000; from 2028 to 2032, Bitcoin's price is expected to reach $4 million.

Pantera Capital: BTC Price Expected to Reach $117,000 by 2025

On May 9, Pantera Capital released a prediction for Bitcoin's price in its latest Pantera Fund V launch letter, forecasting that Bitcoin's price will reach $117,000 by August 2025. The letter stated that it updated its analysis of the impact of halvings on BTC prices in its blockchain letter released in November 2022, ultimately predicting that BTC would rise to $117,000 by August 2025.

It also noted that in previous halvings, the average time for rebounds before and after the halving was almost the same. The similarities between cycles showed that the rebound before the 2024 halving lasted 515 days, just one day longer than the 514 days before the 2020 halving. Based on this model, the Pantera Bitcoin fund has nearly doubled on average over the past 11 years.

Notably, Pantera Capital later seemingly deleted this news, and the latest content on its official website is an article about the Ton ecosystem published on May 8.

Jack Dorsey: BTC Price Could Reach at Least $1 Million by 2030

On May 9, Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey stated in an interview that by 2030, Bitcoin's price could reach at least $1 million, adding that its value could further increase from that point. He pointed out that the price of Bitcoin is not actually the most interesting aspect; rather, it is the collaborative nature of the ecosystem and how it incentivizes collective efforts to enhance the network.

QCP Capital: BTC Price May Be Influenced by Political Factors

On May 10, QCP Capital released an analysis stating that the U.S. presidential election will conclude this November, and historically, markets tend to be optimistic about elections. Presidential candidate Trump has been making cryptocurrency-friendly proposals, which could be a bullish factor for the cryptocurrency market. Furthermore, unless the Federal Reserve explicitly rules out the possibility of interest rate cuts or hints at rate hikes, the market seems likely to continue digesting the effects of rate cuts, which may keep the market bullish for some time.

Additionally, QCP Capital analysts previously stated that Bitcoin's risk reversal has improved, with call options now more expensive than put options. This indicates bullish sentiment among investors, as they are willing to pay a higher price for options that benefit from Bitcoin's rise than for those that protect against price declines.

Japanese Listed Company Metaplanet: Has Made Bitcoin a Strategic Reserve Asset

On May 13, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced its financial management strategic transformation. Metaplanet has made Bitcoin its strategic reserve asset to cope with Japan's ongoing economic pressures, particularly high government debt levels, long-term negative real interest rates, and the resulting weakness of the yen.

Metaplanet's strategy clearly prioritizes Bitcoin and may use long-term yen liabilities and periodic stock issuances as strategic financial options to continuously accumulate more Bitcoin instead of holding the increasingly weak yen. This approach aims to increase the value of each Bitcoin and consolidate shareholder value in the long term. In April, Metaplanet purchased approximately $6.25 million worth of Bitcoin.

Negative View: Downward Trend is the Hard Rule

Veteran Trader: BTC Price May Fall to $30,000 or Even Lower

On April 26, veteran trader Peter Brandt stated that Bitcoin's price may have already peaked in the current bull market cycle when it reached a new high of $73,835, and he expects it to fall to around $30,000 or even to the lows of 2021. He attributed this expected pullback to a phenomenon known as exponential decay, which he believes will affect the recently set new high for Bitcoin's price. In the long term, such a decline could be "the most favorable thing."

Standard Chartered: BTC Price May Fall to $30,000

On May 1, Standard Chartered stated that as Bitcoin's price fell below the $60,000 mark, it could further drop to around $50,000. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated, "Bitcoin's price has fallen below $60,000, and it has now reopened the path to the $50,000-$52,000 range. The driving factors seem to be a combination of cryptocurrency-specific and broader macro factors."

He also noted that concerns regarding cryptocurrencies include the outflow of funds from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF for five consecutive days, as well as the market's poor reaction to Hong Kong's launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. Notably, as the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF continues to experience outflows, the average purchase price of the ETF is currently below $58,000, posing a liquidation risk. "More than half of the spot ETF positions are in a loss state, so the risk of some of these positions being liquidated must also be considered."

10xResearch: Maintains Bearish Judgment on BTC Price Post-Halving

Cryptocurrency research firm 10xResearch stated on the X platform that it continues to maintain a bearish judgment on Bitcoin post-halving. Additionally, since the halving, the inflow of stablecoins has seen almost zero growth, and the leverage of Bitcoin futures contracts has also significantly decreased, all of which support its judgment. Previously, the research firm also stated that when Bitcoin undergoes a triangular consolidation, investors should be wary of potential "fake dips." Bitcoin's relative strength has fallen to a low of 40% in this adjustment, similar to the three adjustments Bitcoin has experienced since the beginning of 2023.

Furthermore, regarding the DTCC's announcement that any ETF or other investment tools that include Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as underlying investments will not be given collateral value, 10xResearch stated that Bitcoin is creating lower price highs—indicating that a new downward trend seems to be in place, which is where the DTCC statement may have an impact.

Neutral View: Volatility Will Be the New Normal

Arthur Hayes: BTC Price Will Fluctuate Between $60,000 and $70,000 Until August

On May 2, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes pointed out in his blog post that the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce the pace of balance sheet reduction from $95 billion to $60 billion essentially equates to an additional $35 billion in liquidity each month. Additionally, given the current fiscal forecasts, the Treasury is expected to issue short-term government bonds with maturities of 4 weeks, 6 weeks, and 8 weeks in the coming days to ensure sufficient liquidity to meet cash demands around the end of May. This move is expected to bring additional dollar liquidity to the market.

Moreover, after the bankruptcy of the small U.S. bank Republic First Bank, the FDIC utilized its insurance fund to ensure the interests of all depositors to avoid a bank run. This means that U.S. authorities have effectively added $6.7 trillion in contingent liabilities to the entire banking system, which will be funded by newly printed money.

He believes that these factors will continue to inject dollar liquidity into the market, alleviating downward pressure on cryptocurrencies. Although the market may not respond immediately, he expects prices to bottom out, decline, and begin to rise slowly. He predicts that Bitcoin may have bottomed out around $58,600, then return above $60,000, and consolidate in the $60,000-$70,000 range before August. Additionally, he mentioned that he would use this rebound to unwind USDe pledges and buy high beta altcoins at the bottom.

Conclusion: Long-Term Bullish, Bull Market May Not Be Over

Based on the above viewpoints, we can draw the following conclusions:

In the long term, extending the time frame to years, both industry institutions and individuals remain bullish on Bitcoin's price;

In the short term, Bitcoin's price will be influenced by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, the U.S. elections, and the approval of Ethereum ETFs;

From May to August, Bitcoin's price may slowly build a bottom amid volatility, awaiting more market news and policy factors to enter the next phase of the market.

As we gradually approach the six-month mark for Bitcoin spot ETFs and more than a month after the Bitcoin halving event, perhaps we need more patience to "let the bullets fly for a while."