Can the viral Notcoin become the MEME coin that breaks the Ton ecosystem?

Author: LD Capital

This article was originally published on March 28 of this year.

1. Backed by 900 Million Monthly Active Users of TON

The Open Network (TON), formerly known as Telegram Open Network, was created by the Telegram team in 2018. After being accused by the SEC of conducting an unregistered securities offering during the ICO era, the Telegram team paid a fine to settle and abandoned the project, which is now continued by the community TON Foundation. Although it has nominally distanced itself from Telegram, the actual connection between the two remains direct. TON has always been the only public chain officially supported by Telegram and continues to be deeply integrated with it. TON will continue to benefit from Telegram's vast user base and traffic entry, while Telegram will build a decentralized digital ecosystem with freedom and privacy by supporting TON.

Telegram has attracted a large number of users globally with its advocacy for free speech and privacy protection, boasting over 1.3 billion registered users and nearly 900 million monthly active users (MAU). At the same time, Telegram has a significant advantage in acquiring Web3 users, benefiting from a relaxed atmosphere for speech and regulatory environment. Almost all Web 3.0/Crypto projects operate their communities on Telegram, and its user distribution is concentrated in Asia, Europe, South America, and the Middle East, with a clear retail characteristic and strong demand for peer-to-peer payments, making it an ideal group for Web3 conversion.

Recently, in addition to Telegram founder Durove expressing intentions to consider an IPO; Durove has publicly announced the official sales channel for TON tokens in his personal channel; the Telegram advertising platform will officially open to advertisers in nearly a hundred new countries. To ensure fast and secure advertising payments and withdrawals, TON blockchain will be specifically used, allowing content creators to cash out their Toncoin or reinvest it to promote and upgrade their channels. These actions will accelerate the development of the TON network and truly broaden the use cases and scenarios of blockchain.

2. Viral Spread of Notcoin

Notcoin is a free and easy-to-use Telegram game where players earn coins by clicking on their phone screens. Since its launch on January 1, 2024, its popularity has surged, with over 30 million participants and an average daily active user count of 5 million, making it the fifth-ranked channel on Telegram by data.

According to statements from the TON Foundation and interviews, Open Builders founder Sasha Plotvinov and her team are behind the development of Notcoin. Open Builders is an organization dedicated to providing funding for projects on the TON blockchain. It is related to Tonstarter, which successfully raised $1.5 million in seed funding last year specifically to support projects based on the TON blockchain. Additionally, the official TON Twitter account has repeatedly retweeted posts related to Notcoin, which currently has 1.5 million followers.

In early March, Notcoin launched a feature allowing elite players to convert large amounts of in-game currency into NFT vouchers, which can be traded before the official issuance of its tokens. Players can choose to exchange 10 million or 100 million game coins for voucher NFTs. Currently, this NFT has been listed on the TON ecosystem NFT trading platform Getgems for early trading and pricing. Once the tokens are officially issued on-chain, the NFTs can be exchanged for tokens.

According to a representative from Notcoin, the token generation event and subsequent airdrop to players will take place at the end of March or early April.

3. Comparative Data

As of the 27th, there are approximately 500,000 Notcoin NFTs in circulation, currently valued at 10M=9TON (based on $5), with a market cap of about $22.5 million and a total trading volume of 2 million TON, amounting to approximately $10 million.

Since March 15, the trading volume of Notcoin NFTs has become active, with a recent peak of 25,000 trades on the 25th, an average transaction price of 10M=6.7TON, and a transaction amount of $837,500. On the 26th, 21,000 trades occurred, with an average price of 10M=9.9TON, totaling $1,039,500. The highest transaction price was recorded on March 13 at 10M=66TON, while the lowest was on March 20 at 10M=3.7TON.

Bybit announced on Monday that starting from 10:00 AM UTC, the meme coin Notcoin ($NOT) based on Telegram will be listed on its pre-market trading platform. According to data from the 27th, the pre-market trading quote on Bybit was 10M=60--90 USD, showing a significant premium compared to NFT market trading.

In comparison, the current top meme coin in the TON ecosystem, FISH, has a market cap of $39 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $2.55 million. Notcoin, during its NFT trading phase, has a market cap and trading volume of about half that of FISH.

4. Conclusion

Currently, the rise of meme coins has become an important way to break through the public chain ecosystem. The TON ecosystem is still in a relatively early stage, but backed by Telegram's massive user base, its development potential is undeniable. Compared to the development of ecosystem project TVL, leveraging meme coins to boost popularity is a more easily achievable method in the short term. Overall, the Notcoin project has received clear support from TON officials and has a huge user base, making it a potential choice for a breakout meme coin. However, the risk lies in the current unclear token economics, with over $20 million worth of NFTs circulating before the secondary market launch, which may create significant selling pressure upon launch. Nonetheless, based on fundamentals, the project is believed to have mid-term potential.