The countdown for the runes to go live has begun. Is the Bitcoin ecosystem's wealth train about to arrive again?
Are you ready?Author: flowie, ChainCatcher
Editor: Marco, ChainCatcher
Around April 20, coinciding with the Bitcoin halving, the Runes protocol mainnet will go live, and the first Runes will officially launch. (Countdown to Runes Launch)
With another opportunity for a large-scale fair launch in the Bitcoin ecosystem, although the first Runes have yet to be born, the market is already buzzing with excitement. Pre-Runes projects like Runestone have taken off early, and data from Magic Eden shows that on April 18, the floor price of Runestone reached 0.089 BTC, while the floor price of Pune Pups soared to 0.119 BTC.
In light of past experiences with inscriptions, the infrastructure related to Runes minting and trading has been prepared in advance. Multiple wallets and trading platforms, including OKX Wallet, UniSat Wallet, and Magic Eden, have announced support for the Runes protocol, with some platforms already launching testnets for users to practice. Runes-specific trading bots have also appeared in the market.
The wealth myth brought by inscriptions is still fresh in memory, and with the arrival of Runes, many users in the crypto community are sharpening their knives, ready to make a big move.
However, with a significant amount of narrative already consumed in the early stages, will the hype surrounding Runes reach a new peak or cool off quickly once they are revealed?
Can Runes Surpass BRC20?
Casey, the founder of Ordinals and the proposer of the Runes protocol, recently expressed extreme confidence on the X platform, stating, "If the market cap of the Runes protocol Runes mainnet does not exceed $1 billion in its first month, I will commit seppuku." Meanwhile, the BRC20 tokens have undergone multiple rounds of fermentation over the past year, with a total market cap currently around $2.4 billion.
Although BRC20 has indeed dominated trading in the Bitcoin ecosystem since the release of Ordinals, Casey has consistently expressed dissatisfaction with it. In September 2023, Casey published a blog post outlining the concept of Runes, pointing out various issues with existing protocols like BRC20, RGB, and Taproot Assets.
For instance, the BRC20 token standard can lead to excessive "garbage" clogging the Bitcoin network, which has been a major criticism from Bitcoin core developers last year.
Casey believes that a better Bitcoin token protocol should be simple, not reliant on off-chain services, and based on UTXO. The goal of Runes is to replace and surpass existing Bitcoin ecosystem token protocols like BRC20, establishing a new homogeneous token standard on Bitcoin.
After more than half a year of code adjustments, Runes has many improvements compared to BRC20 tokens, such as simpler operations, greater developer friendliness, stronger compatibility and scalability, and more flexible token issuance methods. Recommended Reading "A Comprehensive Comparison of Runes and BRC20 Homogeneous Token Protocols"
Redphone, the proponent of the BRC20 concept, also shared his views on Runes, stating, "Unless BRC20 continues to evolve, Runes is likely to become the mainstream token standard for Bitcoin."
A recent report from asset management giant Franklin stated that "Runes" will narrow the gap between Bitcoin in the alternative token market and Ethereum and Solana.
However, according to tech blogger Shijun, Runes also has its limitations. For example, the rules are complex, and the issuance management rules are cumbersome; the Runes name requires 13 characters and special dot symbols, which indirectly increases the risk of phishing for users.
Additionally, Casey chose to launch simultaneously during the BTC halving period without prior testing, resulting in fewer institutions being able to access the Runes protocol immediately. Consequently, the protocol's ecosystem will require more time to mature.
Furthermore, Runes may face compatibility issues in the future, as protocols like Atomical have allowed inscriptions to move beyond mere token speculation into narratives like BTC L2, while Runes projects are still only seen as a means of issuance.
The market remains skeptical about whether Runes can provide a more user-friendly trading experience. Crypto KOL @udiWerthemer believes that there is nothing in the Runes protocol that makes it easier to exist than BRC20, and all the issues still persist.
After the First Runes Go Live, Will the Hype Continue to Ferment or Cool Off Quickly?
After Casey proposed Runes in September, he also released the foundational code for Runes. Many projects quickly seized the opportunity to layout their strategies based on Runes' concepts.
Most Runes concept projects are currently Bitcoin NFTs, and with the launch of the Runes protocol, they will convert into Runes through airdrops or 1:1 exchanges.
On the eve of the official launch of Runes, a large number of pre-Runes projects such as Runestone, Pune Pups, and RSIC have already seen significant increases through incentive strategies like point airdrops. Early participants in the pre-mining have already achieved considerable returns. Recommended Reading “Will Runestone Bring a Runes Frenzy? A Look at 14 Runes Worth Watching”
The infrastructure for Runes trading is also highly competitive, with dozens of platforms actively launching proxy tools. It is rare to find a protocol that has not yet officially launched but is already so competitive.
Currently, many crypto users are sharpening their tools, preparing to make a big move. For them, this will be an excellent opportunity to replicate the tenfold returns seen with inscriptions.
On one hand, the pre-Runes projects already have a large number of users participating. Runestone founder Leonidas has boldly stated that he aims to create a world-class meme on a top-tier blockchain. The largest meme in BRC20, ORDI, has a peak market cap of around $2 billion, while Runestone currently has a market cap of $600 million.
On the other hand, the Genesis Rune coin, which Casey helped finalize, has become an important target, with the Genesis Rune coin confirmed as UNCOMMON • GOODS. According to Casey's previous plans, the Runes protocol will "hard code" the 0-9 Runes, which are all the top 10 "Runes." However, the names of the other 9 tokens were not creatively developed and will not be hard-coded into the Runes protocol.
Crypto KOL @wutaner estimates that with a $1 billion valuation, the price of UNCOMMON • GOODS will reach $10. The gas cost to mint one UNCOMMON • GOODS is about $2.2. If the price of an UNCOMMON • GOODS is around $50-100, the profit could be close to 50 times.
However, DEFI RESEARCH analyst IGNAS has expressed a bearish outlook on Runes in the short term. After various forms of hype in the early stages, the speculation around Runes is likely to cool off shortly after the protocol goes live, "cooling down like the drop after the NFT reveal."
The reason is that after Runes goes live, it may become overcrowded, making Bitcoin transaction fees excessively high, preventing many cash-strapped retail investors from actively trading. Additionally, the number of new Runes tokens issued may be very large, diluting traders' attention and the capital inflow for each token.
Moreover, IGNAS believes that the Genesis Rune (UNCOMMON • GOODS) will be difficult to hype. Since UNCOMMON • GOODS can be minted for free for four years, only one can be minted per transaction.
While there may be cooling risks for Runes in the short term, in the long run, most voices in the market seem to lean towards the idea that Runes will continue to ferment, similar to the multiple explosions experienced by BRC20, providing more opportunities for participation in different waves.
IGNAS states that the best opportunities may arise after sell-offs. Both the Bitcoin ecosystem and Runes are still in very early stages, and even if one did not participate in the pre-Runes mining, there are still plenty of wealth codes hidden in the subsequent Runes minting and secondary market fluctuations.
With Proxy Tools Everywhere, Are You Ready?
After Runes goes live, participants can engage through first-level minting or secondary trading.
For first-level minting of Runes, participants can choose to deploy their own full nodes or use third-party platforms for proxy minting. While having a Bitcoin full node may yield higher returns, setting up a full node requires participants to have a certain level of coding ability, which raises the entry barrier. Most users are expected to choose third-party proxy platforms like OKX Web3 Wallet and UniSat. These proxy platforms also tend to offer one-stop services.
Source: @DoggfatherCrew
Participants in Runes minting need to prepare BTC in wallets or platforms that support Runes in advance. To prevent multiple proxy platforms from crashing on the day of launch and to avoid high transaction costs on some platforms, participants should ideally select multiple different proxy platforms in advance for easy switching.
Additionally, Runestone founder Leonidas advises users to split UTXOs in advance, which is akin to preparing small change to prevent transaction failures and high costs. (UTXO splitting tool https://wizz.cash/btc/send). Participants may also need to use acceleration tools like Dotswap to speed up Runes minting. Currently, platforms like Unisat Wallet have also launched testnets for users to practice.
Besides preparing proxy tools, for many participants, determining the right minting or trading targets may pose a greater challenge.
Among the Runes numbered 0-9, only the 0 Rune was ultimately confirmed by Casey, while the variety of pre-Runes projects can be overwhelming. Many minting platforms' testnets can already index hundreds of test tokens for Runes.
Various Runes search and dashboard tools have also emerged in the market, such as the real-time token aggregator SatScreener for Runes and the Bitcoin ecosystem, and Runesmarketcap, which helps participants find Runes protocols by source, market cap, type, etc., aiding in understanding Runes token information and filtering.
With the meme nature of Runes, while it holds the promise of wealth, it also carries significant risks. The more FOMO in the market, the more cautious participants need to be.
