Author: Jaleel, BlockBeats

The Bitcoin halving is approaching, and a new wave of people is making a fortune.

With just over a thousand blocks remaining until the Bitcoin halving, the Bitcoin ecosystem in April has undoubtedly become the market focus. Among the hottest topics is the Runes concept, especially Runestone, which has reached a market cap of $640 million, causing its floor price to soar to 0.074 BTC, surpassing BAYC and becoming the second-largest project in the NFT market.

Related reading: 《Why did Runestone's market cap surpass BAYC?》

Not only Runestone, but also on the Magic Eden market, 8 out of the top 25 NFTs by trading volume are from the Runes concept. Since April, the NFT trading volume in the Bitcoin ecosystem has significantly exceeded that of Ethereum and Solana, with Runes concept NFTs accounting for the largest share.

Behind this trading volume is the fact that these "early movers" in the Runes projects are like "mining machines," as the number of Runes tokens a holder can receive from airdrops will be calculated based on the holding time and quantity after the halving.

RSIC is one of the earliest projects with "mining machine" attributes, and it has been over two months since its tokens were airdropped to wallets. With about a week left until the Bitcoin halving is completed, how much do early investors expect to earn?

Since the specific airdrop details for Runestone have not yet been announced, and RSIC, which has more detailed airdrop rules, already has a trading market on the OTC platform whales.market, we will primarily focus on RSIC to calculate and discuss "how much the earliest participants in the Runes pre-mining are expected to earn."

Profit Prediction: Taking RSIC as an Example

Before calculating the profits, BlockBeats will provide a brief introduction to the RSIC project for new users.

RSIC is a peer-to-peer rune distribution system based on Bitcoin, with its core built as a digital interactive game. On this platform, players earn runes by managing and operating RSIC tokens, which are expected to be officially "inscribed" on the Bitcoin network at some point in the future. Currently, the trading price of RSIC is 0.06 BTC. Regarding the RSIC Metaprotocol, the total issuance of NFTs is 21,000, while the total issuance of FT (tokens) is approximately 21 billion, with the project team retaining 10% of the NFT share.

For more details about RSIC, see related reading: 《What is the recently discussed RSIC inscription?》

Additionally, when discussing RSIC, one of the most talked-about topics is the mysterious issuer of the project. Initially, there were rumors that it might be the work of Casey, the founder of ordinals, but as Casey became deeply immersed in the world of "Baldur's Gate 3," this speculation was quickly dismissed. The currently widely accepted view is that RSIC may have been deployed by Rocktoshi, the founder of Node Monkey, based on the fact that all the funding for the parent inscriptions comes from the same address. For more details, see Dr. Gold Dog's analysis on Twitter.

Maximizing Profit

The airdrop rules for RSIC tokens are very clear, with 4 variables.

The first variable is "Flat": This variable involves the number of blocks held, stipulating that each block can earn 21 RSIC tokens, totaling no more than 30% of the total airdrop amount.

The second variable is "Boosted": Users holding Boost accelerators can achieve double mining efficiency, which is related to the boost logic Easter egg inscribed on block 4703400000000.

The third variable is "Random Distribution": This accounts for 25% of the total airdrop plus any unallocated Flat and Boost portions. Each RSIC corresponds to a specific type code symbol. When the last digit of a block's hash matches the user's RSIC symbol, the user can earn 336 RS tokens. Considering the 16 possible outcomes for the last digit of the hash, theoretically, there is a success chance every 16 blocks, which means an average of 21 tokens per block.

The fourth variable is "Halving Lottery": At the specific halving block 840,000, the project team will randomly select 5 addresses holding RSIC Metaprotocol NFTs to distribute 15% of the total tokens (distribution ratios of 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, and 1%). Users holding from block 830,000 to 840,000 will receive a lottery ticket for each block held; if sold before the halving, they lose their lottery eligibility.

Users holding both RSIC and Boost are expected to mine a total of 63 tokens per block, while users holding only RSIC are expected to mine a total of 42 tokens per block. It is worth mentioning that even if you have sold RSIC, the quotas accumulated during your holding period are still recorded in your wallet address.

Additionally, it is important to note that only activated RSIC addresses are eligible to receive airdrops. Any RSIC that has been transferred or traded on the market is considered activated, ensuring that only active wallets can participate in the token distribution, thus excluding any dormant wallets and ensuring the fairness and activity of the airdrop.

Earning $10,000 Easily Before the Halving

Currently, on the OTC platform whales.market, the buyer's price for RSIC rune tokens is mainly concentrated around 0.01u, corresponding to a total market cap of $210 million. Recent transaction records show the highest single prices of 0.025, 0.0349, and 0.0374 dollars, corresponding to market caps of 500 million, 730 million, and 780 million dollars, respectively, which are close to Runestone's market cap of $640 million.

However, compared to Runestone's continuous rise, RSIC's NFT market shows a downward trend. Optimistically, compared to the peak price of 0.13 BTC, although RSIC's market cap has decreased, part of its value and market cap is actually reflected more in the tokens.

According to BlockBeats' analysis, currently purchasing an RSIC at 0.06 BTC and additionally paying 0.005 BTC for a Boost accelerator results in a total cost of about $4,700. As of the time of writing, there are still 1,167 blocks remaining until the halving, and it is expected that 63 tokens can be obtained per block, totaling 73,521 tokens, which means the token cost at the halving point is approximately $0.0639. This price is much higher than the OTC price on whales.market.

If we do not consider the potential value of RSIC after the airdrop of Runes tokens, and only consider the cost and price of obtaining tokens, it is clear that directly buying OTC points is a more suitable choice now.

According to information obtained by BlockBeats from early users, the price of RSIC when it first launched on the Magic Eden market was 0.02 BTC. At that time, purchasing one RSIC and holding it until the halving period, without using Boost, is expected to yield 520,000 points. Calculating conservatively at $0.01, the profit would be about $5,200, plus the value increase of RSIC itself, meaning the purchase price of 0.02 BTC could additionally bring in 0.04 BTC in profit, equivalent to $2,800. Adding in airdrops from other projects like Rune Mania Mine for RSIC Boost holders, the conservative total profit estimate is about $10,000. If holding Boost, the expected points will reach 700,000, with corresponding profits estimated at about $13,000.

From a non-conservative perspective, if RSIC is obtained entirely through airdrops, it would be equivalent to directly receiving an NFT valued at 0.06 BTC, with profits of about $4,260. Assuming 700,000 points are calculated at $0.035, the profit would be $24,500. Adding in $2,000 from other project airdrops, the total profit would be approximately $30,000.

In the short term, the Bitcoin halving and the official launch of Runes may trigger strong market sentiment (FOMO). From a longer-term perspective, as a token issued specifically for the community by Casey, the Runes protocol may have an influence comparable to Ordinals. The leading market caps of the Runes protocol and BRC20 may be on par, or even have a certain impact on each other.

Considering the current market situation, Ordi's market cap is $1.5 billion, Sats is $990 million, while Runestone's current market cap is $640 million, suggesting that early participants in Runes pre-mining may still have some room for profit growth.