Tide Capital: 6 Big Ideas You Need to Know About Bitcoin Halving

Author: Tide Capital

At Bitcoin block height #837188, with 20 days to go until the fourth halving, Bitcoin has reached the $70,000 mark, and market sentiment has undergone subtle changes. As the halving approaches, the question remains whether it will repeat the halving rally or trigger a new narrative, with both bulls and bears engaged in fierce competition.

Tide Capital has released a new research report on its official website titled “6 Big Ideas You Need to Know About Bitcoin Halving”, outlining the six most important clues and judgments driving Bitcoin's price.

This article excerpts some content from the research report for public release. For the full text, please visit Tide Capital to download the complete report.

Bitcoin: About to Complete the 4th Halving, Reducing Annual Selling Pressure by $10 Billion

Bitcoin will complete its fourth halving on April 18, 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125, further decreasing Bitcoin's output and selling pressure.

Before the halving, Bitcoin's annual output is approximately 330,000, which, at a price of $65,000, would bring over $20 billion in selling pressure to the market. After the halving, Bitcoin's annual selling pressure will also be halved, equating to a reduction of $10 billion, effectively alleviating the selling pressure on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin: Historically, the 3 Previous Halvings Led to Significant Price Increases in the Following Year

Bitcoin has experienced three halvings in its history, occurring in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020, all of which saw significant price increases in the year following the halving. With less than 30 days until the fourth halving, the market is beginning to price in the effects of the halving, and there is a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to trend upward.

Bitcoin: Spot ETF Accelerates Fund Inflows, Supporting Continued Price Growth

On January 10, the BTC spot ETF was approved, leading to billions of dollars in over-the-counter fund inflows, supporting Bitcoin's continued upward movement. In previous bull markets, BTC typically experienced multiple pullbacks of over 20%, but this bull market has seen fewer and smaller pullbacks, thanks to the continuous influx of over-the-counter funds.

Referencing the gold ETF, after the launch of the first gold ETF, gold entered a nearly decade-long bull market, rising over 400%. Compared to gold, BTC offers safer storage, more convenient transactions, and faster transfers, possessing superior value storage characteristics. Currently, the market cap of gold is $14.5 trillion, while Bitcoin's market cap is only $1.3 trillion, indicating that Bitcoin still has a tenfold growth potential compared to gold. Furthermore, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs is more favored than the gold ETFs of that time, with fund inflow rates far ahead.

Inscriptions: A Native Innovation of Bitcoin, Expected to Ignite a Third Wave of Enthusiasm During the Halving

In January 2023, Bitcoin developer Casey Rodarmor released the Ordinals protocol, allowing users to embed data into the Bitcoin blockchain, thereby creating NFTs and token-like assets on Bitcoin, opening up new gameplay in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Since its launch, the total number of Ordinals inscriptions has exceeded 60 million.

Inscriptions have gone through two waves of enthusiasm. The first wave began in April 2023, with the leading token ORDI rising from $0.005 to $28, an increase of over 5000 times in two months. The second wave started in October 2023, with ORDI rising from $3 to $96, as OKX and Binance launched inscription trading markets, driving up more inscription assets.

Inscriptions are a native innovation of the Bitcoin ecosystem, bringing more users and developers to the Bitcoin community, with various new applications and gameplay continuously emerging. When Bitcoin undergoes its next halving, market attention will once again return to the Bitcoin ecosystem, and inscriptions are expected to ignite a third wave of enthusiasm.

Runes: Protocol Expected to Launch During the Halving, Runestone Likely to Become a Core Asset

The Runes Protocol was proposed by Ordinals founder Casey Rodarmor as an improved and upgraded version of the BRC-20 protocol, aiming to provide a high-efficiency, high-compatibility, and high-scalability framework for Bitcoin asset issuance and management. It is expected to officially launch during the Bitcoin halving, thus becoming one of the mainstream concepts for halving speculation.

Rune Stone was launched by Leonidas, the founder of the Ordinals browser Ord.io, through an NFT airdrop to 112,383 Bitcoin addresses, completing its initial issuance, with a current market cap exceeding $300 million. Rune Stone has become the representative asset of the Runes Protocol, and more projects are beginning to airdrop to users holding Rune Stones, which have immense imaginative potential, making future applications and gameplay worth looking forward to. Additionally, after the Runes Protocol launches, users holding Rune Stones can convert them into fungible tokens. Overall, Rune Stone possesses a narrative of "Runes Protocol" + "Airdrop Asset" + "Token Issuance Expectations," making it likely to become a core asset in the Bitcoin halving market.

Meme: Blue-Chip NFT mfers Issues Token, Reaching $200 Million Market Cap in 12 Hours

On March 30, sartoshi, the founder of the blue-chip NFT project mfers, issued the token mfercoin, stating in the white paper that mfercoin is a meme coin with no intrinsic value, no profit expectations, and no specified use, with 80% of the tokens injected into the liquidity pool, while the remaining 20% will be airdropped to the mfers community.

The NFT project mfers launched in 2021, sparking a wave of PFP enthusiasm in the crypto community and is considered a well-known blue-chip NFT project. After the launch of mfercoin, with the spontaneous support and dissemination from the community, it achieved a market cap of $200 million within 12 hours. Regarding the future of mfercoin, the mfers community states, 1$mfer=1$mfer.