Foresight Ventures: Base and Solana's golden dogs explode, L3 concept is hot
U.S. stocks are fluctuating at high levels, while the cryptocurrency market is stagnating.Written by: Mike, Foresight Ventures
A. Market Viewpoint
1. Macroeconomic Liquidity
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at their highest level in over 20 years since July last year. Last week, it unexpectedly maintained the expectation of three rate cuts this year, with Chairman Powell adopting a dovish tone at the press conference, leading investors to bet that the first rate cut will come in June. The U.S. stock market is fluctuating at high levels, while the cryptocurrency market is stagnating.
2. Overall Market Trends
Top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization:
This week, BTC rebounded weakly, and the market is speculating on newly listed stocks with good chip structures, which may be a sign of an impending market adjustment. Market hotspots are centered around RWA, the new public chain Base, TON, and SUI.
POLYX: BlackRock announced its entry into the RWA sector, sparking heated speculation. POLYX is a securitized public chain for the RWA concept, built on Substrate, where participants need to undergo KYC. However, the business faces significant regulatory hurdles, making it difficult to unify the regulatory framework across different countries, which may hinder the ability to enjoy global liquidity advantages similar to DeFi.
DEGEN: A meme coin on Farcaster, initially airdropped to the Degen community on Farcaster, will continue to be airdropped to other participants in the Base and Farcaster ecosystems. It is currently mainly used for social payments on the Base chain. Due to compliance issues in the U.S., the Base chain is not issuing tokens, leading to more capital inflow into its ecosystem.
SUI: The public chain SUI surged to a new high, with its ecosystem NAVX, CETUS, and others following suit. SUI will hold a conference on April 10 and has recently introduced subsidy incentives for its ecosystem. SUI is currently the best user experience among new public chains.
3. BTC Market Trends
1) On-chain Data
Long-term holders are increasing their profit-taking efforts. As the market encounters resistance near previous highs, some investors are beginning to take profits and exit, with 40% of the selling coming from long-term holders, similar to the situation in December 2020.
The market capitalization of stablecoins grew by 1.6%. The stablecoin USDe from the stable project Ethena currently has a market size of $1.4 billion, ranking fifth.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore, based on the total market cost, reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it indicates a top range; when below 2, it indicates a bottom range. MVRV has fallen below the critical level of 1, indicating that holders are generally in a loss position. The current indicator is at 3.2, entering the middle stage.
Institutional funds have begun to see a significant net outflow of $900 million, primarily due to a substantial decrease in funds flowing into U.S. spot ETFs.
2) Futures Market
Futures funding rates: This week, rates have slightly increased. The rate is between 0.05-0.1%, with a higher long leverage, indicating a short-term market top; the rate is between -0.1-0%, with a higher short leverage, indicating a short-term market bottom.
Futures open interest: This week, BTC open interest has slightly rebounded.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.3, indicating normal market sentiment. Retail sentiment often acts as a contrarian indicator; below 0.7 indicates panic, and above 2.0 indicates greed. The long-short ratio data is highly volatile, reducing its reference significance.
3) Spot Market
As BTC encounters resistance at the new high of 73,000, long-term holders are increasing their profit-taking efforts, and funds may flow from BTC into altcoins. Historically, after BTC reaches a new high, altcoins tend to follow suit within the next two months. It is advisable to pay attention to new public chain opportunities like Base, TON, and SUI.
B. Market Data
1. Total Locked Value in Public Chains
2. TVL Proportions of Various Public Chains
This week, the total TVL is $98.3 billion, an overall increase of $3.8 billion, with a growth rate of about 4%. After a pullback, BTC rebounded to the 71,000 position and is still seeking and forming higher support levels. This week, the TVL of mainstream public chains, except for the ETH chain, has all increased. Currently, the ETH chain has shown relatively weak performance in this cycle, dropping nearly 2% in the past week. The TRON chain, BSC chain, and ARB chain have all increased by about 3%, while the SOLANA chain, OP chain, and BTC chain have increased by about 6%. The POLYGON chain has risen nearly 8%, and the SUI chain has increased by 13%. Notably, the BLAST chain and BASE chain have surged by 25% and 41%, respectively. The BASE chain has accumulated a 161% increase over the past month, pushing its total TVL past $1 billion, successfully surpassing the OP chain and POLYGON to rank eighth. On the other hand, the BLAST chain's TVL has reached $1.27 billion, ranking sixth.
3. Locked Value of Various Chain Protocols
1) ETH Locked Value
2) BSC Locked Value
3) Polygon Locked Value
4) Arbitrum Locked Value
5) Optimism Locked Value
6) Base Locked Value
7) Solana Locked Value
4. Changes in NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT Market Situation
3) NFT Trading Market Share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
This week, the floor prices of blue-chip NFT projects have fluctuated, with the overall market experiencing a slight increase before continuing to decline. BAYC fell by 6%, CryptoPunks dropped by 7%, Milady decreased by 3%, and The Captainz declined by 5%. Pandora performed the best among blue-chip projects this week, rising by 22%. Additionally, Azuki increased by 14%, and Pudgy Penguins rose by 3%. Overall NFT trading volume has seen a slight rebound, but the number of first-time NFT buyers and repeat buyers continues to decline. Currently, there are no signs of recovery in the NFT market.
5. Latest Financing Situation of Projects
6. Post-Investment Dynamics
1) Space Nation --- Gamefi
On April 1, specific players will have the opportunity to try out Space Nation Online during a closed testing period to test the game's and server's functionalities. The game will be publicly released this summer in an early testing format, with a formal launch planned for the end of 2024 for PC and mobile platforms. The game versions across different platforms will remain consistent, and Space Nation Online will offer free trials without a subscription.
2) bitSmiley --- BTC Defi
bitSmiley announced the launch of the Bitcoin-native stablecoin AMM "bitCow." bitSmiley stated that bitCow eliminates impermanent loss during the trading process through mechanisms like dual LP tokens and simplifies users' asset management processes. According to the official roadmap, the upcoming V1 version will focus on trading functionalities supporting Bitcoin-native stablecoins. The V2 version will concentrate on implementing more advanced automated concentrated liquidity AMM solutions to enhance the capital efficiency of Bitcoin-native assets.
3) Polyhedra --- ZK
Polyhedra Network announced a partnership with Renzo to provide $1.8 billion in cryptoeconomic security for its Bitcoin interoperability protocol through the integration of Renzo's liquidity re-staking token LRT and a dual staking mechanism for ZK tokens, achieving trust-minimized Bitcoin interoperability.
Polyhedra stated that in the future, stakers of the native token ZK of Polyhedra Network will benefit from cross-chain messages within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
