MIIX Capital Research Weekly (0318–0324): Market Volatility and Adjustment, Trend Favorable

MIIX Capital
2024-03-26 14:21:58
Collection
Last week, BTC experienced its first significant drop after a sustained upward trend, but Bernstein Bank and Standard Chartered Bank remain bullish on BTC; the AI sector saw a surge in growth, surpassing BTC; the trading volume on the Solana chain once again exceeded that of Ethereum; Base's TVL reached $745.3 million, setting a new historical high; in terms of investment, the number of financing deals continues to rise, with investment amounts concentrated in infrastructure and asset management sectors.

"View of the Beach at Beverly, Massachusetts" --- --- John Frederick Kensett

Introduction:

After the listing of the BTC spot ETF in the United States, there was a net outflow of $836 million during the week, while the price of Bitcoin fell below the critical level of $61,000. Meanwhile, the price of Solana surpassed $200, and its search popularity on Google Trends reached an all-time high.

1. Investment and Financing Observation

Last week, there were a total of 39 investment and financing events in the crypto market, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with a total funding amount exceeding $270 million, a rise of 3%:

In the DeFi sector, 13 investment and financing events were announced, with Figure Markets completing a $60 million Series A financing round, led by Jump Crypto, Pantera Capital, and others;

In the NFT and metaverse sector, 4 investment and financing events were announced, including a decentralized autonomous organization focused on digital art NFTs, BottoDAO, which completed $1.67 million in financing, led by 1kx;

In the blockchain gaming sector, 3 investment and financing events were announced, with the blockchain gaming infrastructure project ZKasino announcing a Series A financing round at a valuation of $350 million;

In the infrastructure and tools sector, 11 investment and financing events were announced, with privacy infrastructure company Espresso Systems completing $28 million in Series B financing, led by a16z crypto;

In other Web3/crypto-related projects, 7 investment and financing events were announced, with Bit island, the developer behind the decentralized social trading protocol Bi.social, completing $3 million in financing;

In the centralized finance sector, 2 investment and financing events were announced, with the crypto exchange Tokenize Xchange completing an additional $11.5 million in Series A financing.

From a month-on-month perspective, the number of investment and financing events in the cryptocurrency market continued to rise last week, with funding concentrated in infrastructure and asset management, where KuCoin Ventures and HashKey Capital were particularly active, mainly focusing on the infrastructure sector.

About Figure Markets

Figure Markets combines the liquidity of traditional finance with decentralized asset control, providing investors with a variety of blockchain-native assets, including cryptocurrencies, stocks, and alternative investments. Figure Markets will launch a decentralized custody cryptocurrency exchange and a blockchain-native security market based on the Provenance blockchain, incorporating multi-party computation (MPC) technology.

It is reported that every action of Figure's decentralized MPC wallet requires multi-party approval, which helps to minimize the "single point of failure" risk that arises in centralized entities. Figure also stated that it is committed to developing a registered security alternative for stablecoins within its ecosystem.

About Morph

Morph is a completely permissionless EVM L2 that combines optimistic and zk rollup technologies, providing developers building financial, gaming, social media, and entertainment applications on its chain with user-friendly options. Morph plans to use this round of financing to accelerate team building, enhance developer incentives, and expand marketing efforts.

About MANTRA

MANTRA aims to be the first RWA L1 blockchain capable of complying with and enforcing real-world regulatory requirements. By accelerating the adoption of tokenized RWAs, MANTRA has the potential to unlock a $16 trillion RWA economy through a regulatory-ready blockchain. With the compliance framework of MANTRA Chain, TradFi companies can easily switch to and leverage asset tokenization and blockchain solutions, facilitating global RWA growth.

This round of strategic funding aims to help MANTRA achieve three key goals: building compliant infrastructure, supporting developers, and expanding RWA tokenization. MANTRA is a Layer 1 blockchain focused on RWA assets and claims to comply with and enforce real-world regulatory requirements. The project's Hongbai incentive testnet is set to launch soon, promoting economic cooperation and cross-border investment between the Middle East and Asia.

2. Industry Data

BTC Plummets, Major Institutions Remain Bullish

TradingView data shows: BTC fell more than 8% on March 19, marking the largest single-day drop since November 9, 2022, and briefly dipped below $61,000 on March 20, retreating 17% from its historical high of $73,500, but also saw a significant rebound over the weekend back to around $67,000.

The recent price drop of BTC was catalyzed by several factors, including outflows from the spot ETF, excessive market leverage, news of the rejection of the Ethereum spot ETF pushing the market down, and the frenzy of meme coins on Solana.

In contrast to the market downturn, Wall Street investment bank Bernstein stated in a research report on Thursday that it has raised its year-end Bitcoin price forecast from $80,000 to $90,000. Previously, the company's analysts had predicted that Bitcoin would reach $150,000 by 2025; Standard Chartered has also raised its year-end Bitcoin price forecast from $100,000 to $150,000, predicting that BTC will reach a cyclical high of $250,000 next year and then stabilize around $200,000.

Additionally, Standard Chartered stated that the SEC may approve the Ethereum ETF on May 23, which could lead to inflows of up to $45 billion over the next 12 months, with ETH expected to reach around $8,000 by the end of 2024.

AI Tokens Surge, Outpacing BTC

According to CoinGecko data, the total market capitalization of the AI sector has surged from $2.7 billion in April last year to $22.8 billion, with related tokens rising between 145% and 297% in the past 30 days, outpacing BTC; the CoinDesk Computing Index has grown over 165% in the past 12 months, exceeding BTC's 151% increase.

Many observers believe that crypto applications can help address some early issues in the AI industry, such as privacy protection and computational power demands.

Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO Network, stated: "As AI systems and blockchain networks continue to evolve, we will see more and more use cases that integrate these two industries."

Solana On-Chain Transaction Volume Surpasses Ethereum Again

According to DeFiLlama data, the trading volume of Solana-based DEXs grew by 67% in 7 days, reaching $21.3 billion. In the same period, the trading volume of Ethereum-based DEXs only increased by 3%, reaching $19.4 billion.

There are 17 DEXs on Solana, with Orca ranking first, accounting for 88% of the total trading volume of Solana's DEX ecosystem. The significant increase in trading volume on Solana's DEXs was driven by the speculative frenzy surrounding Solana-based meme coins WIF, BONK, BOME, and SLERF. The speculation led to the emergence of 2,300 meme coins within an hour on March 13, and the supply of stablecoins on Solana reached $2.8 billion, setting a new high in years.

Ethereum Gas Fees Drop 41%, Base Chain Gains Momentum

Following the launch of Dencun earlier this month, activity on the Base network has significantly increased, with transaction volumes exceeding 1 million on March 17, up from about 440,000 transactions before the Ethereum upgrade. Currently, the on-chain activity of this network has surpassed competitors like Arbitrum and Optimism.

According to IntoTheBlock data, Ethereum gas fees last week were approximately $116 million, a 41% decrease month-on-month, while the daily transaction volume of Ethereum Layer 2 network Base surged to a new high of $356 million on March 19, an increase of about 51% from March 18. Base's TVL also reached an all-time high of $745.3 million.

According to Scopescan monitoring, the average daily active addresses on the Base network after the Dencun upgrade reached 287,600, a 300% increase from before the upgrade, with the highest number of daily active addresses on March 16 (851,000).

The surge in activity on the Base network can be attributed to Ethereum's recent Dencun upgrade, which significantly reduced transaction fees on the second layer network, making Base one of the most cost-effective options for using Ethereum in the market. As Coinbase strives to connect its users with the on-chain economy, Base is likely to continue growing.

3. VC Holdings

Note: The above data is sourced from https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/, with the statistics taken at 15:00 (UTC+8) on March 25, 2024.

4. This Week's Focus

March 25

  • The civil trial for the fraud charges against Do Kwon opened; Do Kwon has not been extradited to the U.S. and may miss the trial;
  • The Merlin ecosystem Launchpad platform MerlinStarter announced the launch of its first IDO project, MerlinSwap;
  • The Web3 startup accelerator SpringX, in collaboration with the Aptos Foundation, ABCDE Highlight, and SevenX Ventures, officially launched a new round of the SpringX Move Accelerator, with the application deadline on March 25;

March 26

  • Circle's cross-chain transfer protocol CCTP went live on the Solana mainnet on March 26;
  • Tornado Cash developer Alexey Pertsev will stand trial in the Netherlands on March 26;
  • WOW Summit Hong Kong will be held in Hong Kong from March 26 to 27, 2024, with an expected attendance of 7,000 people;
  • 9 Lives Interactive's first game "Nyan Heroes" will be available for early access from March 26 to April 9, along with an airdrop mission;

March 27

  • The Web3 creator community app PoP Planet will launch the "PoPP Interstellar Pass Card" Free Mint event on Ethereum on March 27 at 20:00;
  • Yield Guild Games (YGG) will unlock 16.69 million tokens on March 27 at 22:00, valued at approximately $16.89 million, accounting for 5.39% of the circulating supply;

March 28

  • Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week;
  • U.S. March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index;
  • The sentencing of FTX founder SBF by a U.S. federal judge is scheduled for March 28;
  • SingularityNET (AGIX) will unlock 8.84 million tokens on March 28 at 8:00, valued at approximately $9.26 million, accounting for 0.69% of the circulating supply;
  • The TokenFi Launchpad mainnet will go live on March 28;
  • The Indian Securities and Exchange Board plans to introduce same-day settlement from March 28 to compete with cryptocurrencies;
  • The Bitcoin Layer 2 network TaprootChain will go live on the mainnet on March 28, with cross-chain functionality enabled on March 29 and a points activity launched on March 30;

March 29

  • U.S. February Core PCE Price Index;
  • a16z crypto's cryptocurrency startup accelerator (CSX) 2024 fall applications remain open until March 29;
  • The Arbitrum derivatives DEX ununx incentive testnet period will last until March 29, 2024, with 14.2% (3 million tokens) of its total supply airdropped to PYTH stakers and community members;
  • Bitmain will hold the 2024 Global Digital Mining Summit at the W Hotel in Muscat, Oman on March 29, themed "Hydropower Mining Wins the Desert";
  • Optimism (OP) will unlock 24.16 million tokens on March 29 at 12:00, valued at approximately $84.32 million, accounting for 2.4% of the circulating supply;

March 31

  • APE will unlock 15.6 million tokens on March 17 at 8:00, valued at approximately $35.57 million, accounting for 2.55% of the circulating supply;
  • Echelon Prime (PRIME) will unlock 1.66 million tokens on March 31 at 8:00, valued at approximately $37.53 million, accounting for 4.65% of the circulating supply;
  • Sui (SUI) will unlock 4 million tokens on March 31 at 8:00, valued at approximately $6.68 million, accounting for 0.32% of the circulating supply;
  • The Bitcoin Layer 2 project Ligo mainnet will go live on March 31, with staking assets currently being screened. In addition to Ligo, attention is on Bitcoin, BC20, Inscriptions, NFTs, and cross-chain assets;

5. Conclusion

Last week, BTC experienced its first significant drop after a sustained upward trend, but Bernstein Bank and Standard Chartered remain bullish on BTC; the AI sector surged, outpacing BTC; Solana's on-chain transaction volume surpassed Ethereum again; Base's TVL reached $745.3 million, setting a new historical high; in terms of investment, the number of investment and financing events continued to rise, with funding concentrated in infrastructure and asset management.

This week, outflows and sell-offs of BTC may continue the trend from last week, with current positions still in an overbought state, making profit-taking more likely to continue this week. At the same time, there are several noteworthy events and project token unlock plans, such as large-scale unlocks of tokens like Optimism, SUI, AGIX, which may have a significant impact on market conditions.

As Powell's remarks have reiterated expectations for interest rate cuts, there is increasing optimism in the market, but the SEC's delay in the decision on the Ethereum ETF leaves the market facing uncertainty in volatility. Although the long-term bullish outlook is the mainstream view, the current market is still in a phase of adjustment and fluctuation, and investors should remain calm to respond to opportunities or risks that may arise at any time.

Note: All views above are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. If there are any disagreements, please feel free to contact and correct.

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