Foresight Ventures: BTC experiences a brief pullback, Solana becomes the hottest meme carrier
U.S. stocks were mixed, with a slight lack of strength in the upward movement. The cryptocurrency market continues to break through previous highs.Written by: Mike
A. Market Viewpoint
1. Macro Liquidity
Monetary liquidity is improving. The CPI must decline for at least 3 months for the Federal Reserve to acknowledge the downward trend in inflation. Due to a slight rebound in CPI inflation in February, the Federal Reserve needs more data to support a more confident stance on interest rate cuts, making a rate cut in June increasingly difficult. U.S. stocks are mixed, with slight upward momentum. The crypto market continues to break previous highs.
2. Overall Market Trends
Top 100 by Market Cap Gains:
This week, BTC broke through the new high of 70,000, with old coins catching up. The ETH Cancun upgrade performed modestly, and the market shifted towards speculation on the SOL ecosystem. The main themes in the market revolve around AI, MEME, and the SOL ecosystem.
PEPE: This round of the bull market has seen relatively few technological innovations, with the market primarily speculating on MEME. PEPE and WIF, as small-cap leaders, have significant market cap elasticity.
BNB: Bull market brokerage logic. Binance's IEOs are accelerating, and the market expects new offerings weekly, thus increasing demand for the platform token BNB.
TON: The public chain TON provides subsidies and incentives for creators and plans to go public. The biggest highlight is its large user base on Telegram.
3. BTC Market Trends
1) On-chain Data
The BTC bull market phase is around 30%. Numerous indicators suggest that a wealth transfer from old holders to new speculators is underway, remarkably similar to past new highs. If these changes reflect a supply-demand turning point at the cycle peak, it indicates that the current market has experienced 30% of a typical bull market cycle.
The market cap of stablecoins increased by 3% week-on-week, with an accelerated inflow of off-exchange funds.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore, based on the total market cost, reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it indicates a top range; when below 2, it indicates a bottom range. MVRV has dropped below the critical level of 1, indicating that holders are generally at a loss. The current indicator is 3.2, entering the middle stage.
Institutional funds have seen a net inflow for 6 consecutive weeks, with weekly net inflows reaching new highs.
2) Futures Market Trends
Futures funding rates: This week, rates have retreated from high levels. The rate is between 0.05-0.1%, with a high leverage of long positions, indicating a short-term market top; rates between -0.1-0% indicate a high leverage of short positions, suggesting a short-term market bottom.
Futures open interest: This week, BTC open interest continues to rise, with both volume and price increasing.
Futures long-short ratio: 0.8, indicating normal market sentiment. Retail sentiment often serves as a contrarian indicator; below 0.7 indicates panic, while above 2.0 indicates greed. The long-short ratio data is highly volatile, reducing its reference value.
3) Spot Market Trends
BTC is accelerating upward, breaking through the previous high of 70,000. Previously strong sectors are beginning to adjust, with lagging old coins catching up. After this new high, BTC's overall trend appears hesitant, with market risks gradually accumulating.
B. Market Data
1. Total Locked Value in Public Chains
2. TVL Proportions of Various Public Chains
This week, the total TVL is 10.29 billion USD, an increase of 730 million, with a growth rate of 7.6%. The total TVL has returned above 10 billion USD for the first time since May 8, 2022. BTC continues to set historical highs this week, rising to 73,000. All mainstream public chains' TVL increased this week, with SOLANA leading with a surge of 29%, followed by BSC, AVALANCHE, and BASE chains, which rose over 10%. The ETH chain increased by about 2%, POLYGON by 1.5%, and TRON, ARB chains rose by around 1%. Notably, the BLAST chain surged by 97% this week, reaching a TVL of 1 billion USD, successfully surpassing the BASE chain to enter the top ten public chains.
3. Locked Value of Various Chain Protocols
1) ETH Locked Value
2) BSC Locked Value
3) Polygon Locked Value
4) Arbitrum Locked Value
5) Optimism Locked Value
6) Base Locked Value
7) Solana Locked Value
4. Changes in NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT Market Situation
3) NFT Trading Market Share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
This week, the floor prices of blue-chip NFT projects in the market have almost all declined. Except for Pandora, which rose by 10%, BAYC plummeted by 27%, MAYC fell by 20%, CryptoPunks dropped nearly 6%, Pudgy Penguins decreased by 5%, Azuki fell by 4%, Milady dropped by 18%, and The Captainz fell by 17%. This week, the total trading volume in the NFT market saw a slight rebound, with BAYC taking the top position, trading around 9,500 ETH. Although the number of repeat buyers has slightly increased, the number of first-time NFT buyers continues to decline. Currently, there are no signs of recovery in the NFT market overall.
5. Latest Financing Situation of Projects
6. Post-Investment Dynamics
1) Polyhedra Network --- ZK
OKX Jumpstart will launch the new project Polyhedra Network token. OKX Jumpstart will launch Web3 full-stack interoperability infrastructure Polyhedra Network token ZK. Users can start staking Bitcoin and Ethereum for ZK tokens from March 15, 14:00 Beijing time.
The number of mineable tokens in the Bitcoin and Ethereum staking pools is 3 million each, with mining ending on March 19, 14:00. Users from mainland China, Hong Kong, and South Korea are not eligible to participate, and participants must complete identity verification.
Polyhedra Network completed a $10 million funding round last February, led by Binance Labs and Polychain Capital, with participation from Foresight Ventures, Animoca Brands, Dao5, ABCDE, Sparkle Ventures, KuCoin Ventures, DHVC, and others.
2) SpaceID --- Domain Service Network
SpaceID has announced an airdrop plan with a total allocation of 1,843,835 USD in ID tokens.
Eligible users: Approximately 5,700 SPACE ID Premium Club members.
Airdrop claim window: March 11, 9:00 AM to April 11, 9:00 AM UTC.
More information: http://space.id/premier-club
3) Sei Network --- Layer 1
Sei has launched Parallel Stack, which parallelizes EVM and goes beyond the launch of Sei v2. As part of Sei Labs' mission to expand EVM, it is creating an open-source framework to maximize performance and parallelize L2 chains. The core of Parallel Stack is a powerful open-source framework for creating second layers and convolutions to leverage the power of parallel processing. This architectural innovation aims to significantly enhance the Ethereum ecosystem and address the performance bottlenecks currently faced by second-layer blockchains.
