Comparing the correlation between DOGE market trends and social media popularity, have PEPE and WIF peaked?

Written by: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

At the beginning of 2021, DOGE sparked the earliest wave of the Meme craze known as the "zoo market," with its market cap reaching a peak of $88.79 billion. At that time, DOGE successfully broke into mainstream awareness, spreading widely across various social media platforms and attracting a large number of new investors to related cryptocurrencies.

On May 8 of that year, DOGE hit its highest point of 0.74 USDT. The overly heated market accumulated a large amount of leveraged positions, and on May 12, Bitcoin dropped by 12.5%, followed by the infamous 519 crash, where Bitcoin experienced a daily volatility of 34.8% and fell by 14.44%.

The "second-generation Meme leader" SHIB had its two rounds of market activity in May and late October 2021, which were quite close to the peaks in May and November, but the breakout effect was not as significant as that of DOGE.

Recently, Meme tokens led by PEPE have dominated the exchange's gainers list, and WIF has also been listed on Robinhood and Binance. Does this indicate another breakout and a peak market on the horizon? Odaily Planet Daily will review social media data and the trends of Meme tokens, including DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, and WIF, to explore whether there is a correlation and what it may signify.

Breakout Spread? Not Yet Started

Let's start with domestic social media platforms.

Weibo: In 2021, a large number of official accounts and individuals promoted Web3 industry content on Weibo. Although many users have migrated to the X platform, content related to Meme coins can still be updated in real-time and has a certain degree of spread. The content searched for PEPE is closely related to cryptocurrencies, while WIF has less related content, most of which is associated with "WiFi."

Xiaohongshu: The situation on this platform is similar to Weibo, with a high correlation to PEPE, but most posts are not recent, and the number of likes is low, indicating that it has not yet triggered FOMO among users outside the circle and widespread attention. WIF also has scattered related content, with a varied time distribution, mostly related to the "WiFi" term.

Jike: The concentration of Web3 content on this platform is actually comparable to that of Weibo and Xiaohongshu, but it mainly focuses on the promotion of legitimate projects and communication among industry professionals. Currently, there are only a few posts discussing the price increase of PEPE, while WIF has not been mentioned at all.

Review of Social Media Search Data

Using "Baidu Index" and "Google Trends" as references, we review the trends of DOGE and SHIB. The "Baidu Index" is an absolute index that shows the search volume within a specific time period, while "Google Trends" is an absolute value with a maximum of 100, showing the relative trend within a specific time period.

The price of DOGE and social media search data are as follows. Google data shows that from January to May, global attention to DOGE was similar, while domestic interest was more focused on the latter two market waves. It is also evident that whenever there is a hot search far exceeding the average on a certain day, it indicates a peak in the short-term market.

The price of SHIB and social media search data are as follows, with patterns similar to DOGE, where extreme hot searches indicate market peaks. However, it can be seen that the attention in the domestic market was mainly driven by the "zoo market" triggered by DOGE in May, with a significant decline in domestic attention during the second wave.

The price of PEPE and social media search data over the past month are as follows. Due to official settings, Google Trends cannot be queried across months, but a 7-day query shows that the popularity has not changed significantly since the end of February. However, there have been significant fluctuations in the domestic market, but the degree of deviation is not as extreme as the over-hundred-fold fluctuations recorded by DOGE and SHIB.

The price of WIF and social media search data over the past month are as follows. There has been no significant change in domestic attention. Notably, on March 5 at 18:00, after Binance announced the listing of WIF, interest began to surge, showing a deviation similar to that of PEPE.

Conclusion

In summary, extreme hot searches for Meme tokens often indicate a peak in market activity. Currently, both PEPE and WIF have shown significant deviations, indicating that risks are beginning to accumulate, but the extent is far less than that of DOGE and SHIB in previous years, and there is no obvious breakout situation occurring, suggesting that there may still be some potential space.