Inventory of 50 Popular Airdrop Tokens: When to Sell for Maximum Profit?
The best time to sell airdrop tokens may be within 14 days after receiving the airdrop tokens.Original Title: 46% of Biggest Airdrops Hit All-Time Highs in 2 Weeks
Original Author: Nicholas Boey, Coingecko
Original Compiler: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
# 1. When is the Best Time to Sell Airdrops?
Among the 50 largest airdrops, 23 (46%) recorded token price peaks within the two weeks prior to the airdrop date. This suggests that the best time to sell airdrop tokens may be within 14 days of receiving them to maximize profits.
Airdrop tokens that achieved peak price returns in the short term include Ethereum Name Service (+73% on Day 2), X2Y2 (+121% on Day 2), Blur (+90% on Day 6), LooksRare (+192% on Day 10), and ArbDoge AI (+425% on Day 14).
In recent airdrops, Jito (+43% on Day 2), Wen (+37% on Day 3), Dymension (+75% on Day 10), Manta (+72% on Day 12), and Heroes of Mavia (+217% on Day 13) were also the most profitable for investors if sold shortly after the airdrop. Nevertheless, these airdrops have only been trading for a few weeks, and whether their token prices will rise to new highs remains to be seen.
Among these 23 airdrop tokens, 16 reached peak returns between 2 to 14 days after the airdrop date. In other words, once the tokens are airdropped and start trading, interest often spikes sharply. This confirms that token airdrops are an effective marketing or growth strategy, but it also indicates that as more people discuss the airdrop, interest in specific tokens tends to grow, peaking shortly thereafter and reflecting in the token's price.
The remaining 7 airdrops peaked on the day of the airdrop, after which the token prices failed to recover. For example, the airdrop token for Solana aggregator Jupiter started trading at around $0.66 but subsequently dropped by 28% and remains below its initial price. This occurs when airdrop recipients are eager to realize profits from their "free funds," leading to immediate sell-offs. As recipients decide to exit the airdrop over time, the token prices of these airdrops continue to face selling pressure and hit new lows.
On the other hand, among the top 50 largest airdrops, 27 airdrops reached peak returns more than two weeks after the airdrop date, with timeframes ranging from 15 days to 581 days. These longer timeframes for price peaks are often aligned with favorable market conditions and the growth of individual projects, allowing the valuations of airdrop tokens to exceed initial levels.
# 2. Market Conditions Drive Airdrop Price Returns
38% of Airdrop Tokens Peaked During the 2021 Bull Market
During the cryptocurrency bull market, 19 of the 50 largest airdrops reached all-time highs (ATH) in 2021. All of these were launched before or in 2021, indicating that market conditions drove higher valuations for these airdrop tokens.
Of these 19 tokens, 4 reached ATH more than 100 days after the airdrop. These airdrop tokens are Uniswap (1,145%), 1inch (216%), Gitcoin (242%), and Bank (94%).
Compared to short-term peaks, the ATH prices of these tokens achieved significantly higher returns. For example, Uniswap's ATH price return of 1,145% is ten times the highest price return of 106% in the 14 days prior to trading.
This suggests that for certain airdrops, recipients may consider holding their airdrop allocations for longer periods to appreciate in value, aiming for higher profits under favorable market conditions.
2022: A Good Year for NFT Airdrops, but Not for Others
In 2022, market conditions were relatively pessimistic, with 11 of the 50 airdrop tokens reaching ATH.
However, at the beginning of 2022, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) experienced a bull market, which helped push the valuations of 3 of these 11 airdrop tokens (ApeCoin, LooksRare, and X2Y2) to new ATHs. On the other hand, other airdrop tokens that reached ATH in 2022 were launched in the same year and achieved ATH shortly after the airdrop date. Osmosis is an exception, having launched in June 2021 but reaching ATH in 2022.
This indicates that during bear markets, the best time to sell airdrop tokens for profit maximization is shortly after the airdrop.
2023 and 2024: Is Bullish Sentiment Returning?
The remaining 21 airdrop tokens among the 50 reached ATH in 2023 and 2024, as bullish sentiment returned following the approval of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.
Of these 21 airdrop tokens, 8 reached ATH more than 100 days after the airdrop. These airdrop tokens are Arbitrum (68%), Bonk (28,091%), Celestia (777%), Optimism (186%), Aptos (34%), WorldCoin (249%), Arkham (67%), and Maverick (38%).
Another 5 airdrops took 15 to 100 days to reach peak token prices, while the remaining 8 airdrop tokens reached ATH within 14 days after the airdrop date. (Note that among the 8 tokens that peaked within 14 days, 5 were from recent airdrops: Manta, Jupiter, Dymension, Heroes of Mavia, and Wen).
This suggests that market sentiment may shift in 2024, making it potentially more profitable to hold airdrop tokens when they reach new valuations in the anticipated bull market.
# 3. When to Sell Airdrops
As of February 20, 2024, the number of days, weeks, or years required for the 50 largest airdrops to reach their historical peak token prices, along with the corresponding peak price return percentages:
