eGirl Capital: 2024 Outlook and 2023 Summary

Original Title: "UPDATES FROM OUR 2D HEDGEFUND AND 2024 PREDICTIONS"
Original Source: eGirl Capital
Original Compilation: 0x26

Editor's Note:

eGirl Capital is a magical crypto capital that invests in only 2 protocols each year, which makes them rarely appear in funding PRs. However, the projects they participate in are well-known, such as Arbitrum, Blur, Blast, Celestia, Lido, Gearbox, and Gem.

Unlike the traditional image of VCs, eGirl, which originated in crypto and remains loyal to it, is extremely active on social media. In fact, almost everyone at eGirl is a KOL, involved in secondary market contract trading, narrative trading, meme mastery, and shitposting, and even founding crypto projects. Notable members include DegenSpartan, Loomdart, Alchemix founder Scoopy, CL, inversebrah, and hedgedhog.

Loose yet multidimensional, eGirl resembles superheroes in the Marvel Universe, and even the outlook of each member on 2024 varies. Through the perspectives of different eGirl members, we can gain insight into the most authentic views of these diverse KOLs on the 2024 crypto market.

With Christmas approaching, we are pleased to summarize eGirl Capital's progress in 2023 and predictions for 2024.

After completing a small investment in Celestia in 2022, we made two investments in 2023, leading the first and second rounds of OhBabyGames, which is developing multiple games and a Steam-like client for CT (note: Crypto Twitter, i.e., the crypto community). We are proud of this, and we also led the community round of BLAST. Although supported by Paradigm, it was not recognized (note: Paradigm partner: there are marketing strategy differences with Blast, and they will take their responsibilities in the ecosystem seriously). We believe BLAST is the future of multi-signature contracts.

We will continue to invest with a target of about twice a year. Here are our predictions for 2024:

Strongly Optimistic About the Supercycle Triggered by ETFs

G: Continuing to rise, most Tradfi still do not believe in the arrival of the bull market throughout the rise, and the public's investment psychology remains unchanged. 2024 marks the clear beginning of BTC (and later ETH) decades-long supercycle, namely the permanent DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) into spot ETFs.

CL: Uponly, but not rising straight up like in 2021. Currently, CME's contract open interest indicates that investors are optimistic about the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF and have a high level of participation. Market participants seem to be more specialized in this cycle, involving mainstream coins on centralized exchanges, altcoins on centralized platforms, on-chain altcoins, and small image collectors, etc. I believe this situation will continue.

Loomdart: The supercycle is restarting. We will rise slowly and steadily, without the craziness of 2021. People are realizing how to invest in cryptocurrencies more prudently.

Loma: Ethereum's deflation and CEX holdings seem unimportant, but institutional interest is rising, and speculation about ETFs in 2024 leads to ETH prices soaring above $3000. The recovery of ETH prices rekindles interest in NFTs among ordinary users, opening the next NFT bull market. However, previous NFT blue chips (BAYC, PUNK, Pudgy Penguins) have not created new highs in ETH terms. Do Kwon returns, founding another project under a new alias.

Emily: The return of quantitative easing in 2024. As people seek alternative value storage solutions, cryptocurrencies and commodities/physical assets rise. Tradfi shifts from purchasing FTX shares to spot ETFs.

Scoopy: A better version and more of everything: RWA, infrastructure, derivative spinach, Ponzi, rug pulls, DeFi, small images, etc. All sentiments regarding cryptocurrencies, except indifference, will be amplified. The market rises overall, but economic weakness suppresses what should be a comprehensive bull market.

Continued Optimism for Ethereum

PopcornKirby: 2024 is a great time to become an Ethereum maximalist. Look at CME's open interest; Tradfi has no Ethereum positions at all, and it only takes one hot crypto game/NFT collectible to revitalize the entire industry.

Eva: Ethereum. The infrastructure and user experience are ready to provide high-quality decentralized application experiences, institutional capital is flooding in, and DeFi will see an explosion. There’s also zero-knowledge proofs. In the future, when reviewing the history of cryptocurrencies, one will see the difference before and after the large-scale adoption of zero-knowledge technology; 2024 marks the beginning of the zero-knowledge era.

Mixed Market Sentiments

knlae // 0xKNL__: Bitcoin's "fundamentals" remain the center of market action, and the market is tougher than expected, with significant uncertainties (cash flow, elections, first rate cuts, quantitative easing, etc.).

Most traders will suffer severe losses throughout the year; by the end of the year, over 100 registered investment advisors (RIAs) using BTC ETF-based SMAs will flood in and actively promote, but they will need some time to adapt; Ethereum catalysts (such as ETFs and LSD) + EIP-4844 will drive ETH's sharp rise. SOL's market performance can still surpass ETH.

The combination of cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence may give birth to multiple projects worth over $5 billion. RWA is running at full speed for Tradfi and the public. Yield-bearing stablecoins (over $30 billion by year-end) and better cryptocurrency infrastructure will finally begin to serve unbanked users in Latin America and Africa, becoming the second true killer application of cryptocurrencies (after speculation). The U.S. Treasury and IRS will take strict regulatory measures, and cryptocurrencies will slump again by the end of 2024.

CryptoCat: The first Tradfi Layer 2 is about to be announced. There are a bunch of games built on Layer 2, but none are fun. Lido experienced its first Shelton crisis. The foundation survived. Account abstraction landed, and users suffered losses due to confusion. The ETH/BTC exchange rate broke its all-time high.