On-chain data analysis of Ordi: The main battlefield has shifted, with the biggest winner earning up to 400 million RMB

Written by: Riyue Xiaochu

1. Ordi's biggest winner, minting 900,000 tokens and holding them to this day, has earned as much as 50 million dollars. However, overall, the proportion of minted Ordi has become very small, expected to be less than 10%. The two personal addresses with the largest holdings have 710,000 and 640,000 respectively, with costs between 6 to 10 dollars, and have not moved since.

2. The addresses holding Ordi have undergone significant changes, with chips now concentrated on exchanges; in the future, Binance and OKX will be the main battlegrounds.

3. The recent two days of FUD have led to over 700,000 Ordi flowing into exchanges. In comparison, during the pump earlier this week, there were only a few hundred thousand profits realized, which is even less. Thus, the pump has turned people into believers, while panic has caused them to hand over their chips.

4. During the investigation, I discovered a little secret that I’ll quietly share with you. Binance-related wallets began testing Ordi transfers in September when it was only 3 dollars. If discovered, that would definitely lead to wealth. The same logic can be considered for other coins.

Address Analysis

Holding Address 1: Binance Wallet

Holding Address 2: OKX Wallet

Holding Address 3: OKX Wallet

Holding Address 4: Unknown, possibly a large holder.

Holding Address 5: Unknown, possibly a large holder. Cost at 10 dollars.

Holding Address 6: A certain exchange.

Holding Address 7: Gate exchange.

Holding Address 8: Large holder, purchased 200,000 on May 20 and July 24, with costs in the range of 6 to 8 dollars.

Holding Address 9: A certain large holder.

Due to the lack of labels on the BTC network, each address has been analyzed based on its behavior, and some addresses may have uncertainties. In the following analysis, I will try to base my conclusions on highly certain data, and will make special notes where uncertainties arise.

1) First, from the perspective of holding addresses, it is very certain that compared to May, Ordi has undergone significant changes, with the main chips now concentrated on exchanges. This means that exchanges are the main battleground. The largest holding is Binance, which holds at least 38.4% of Ordi, making it the largest holding address for Ordi. Next, OKX holds at least 12.2% of Ordi, while other exchanges, including Gate, Bybit, and other second-tier exchanges, hold a total of about 10%.

2) Among the top 10 holding addresses, several are likely individual large holders.

Holding Address 4 holds 710,000 tokens, worth 40 million dollars. This large holder has divided purchases across multiple addresses, mainly concentrated around early May and supplemented on July 14, with a total cost between 6 to 8 dollars. It seems this large holder is a firm believer, holding on even when it dropped to 3 dollars later. In the end, they reaped the rewards.

Holding Address 5 is also an individual large holder, holding 644,000 tokens, worth 36 million dollars. Purchased between May 20 and 22, with a cost around 10 dollars. Similarly, a steadfast believer. Despite a subsequent drop of over 70%, they remain unmoved.

Of course, the above two addresses could also be OKX's cold wallets. However, considering that Holding Addresses 2 and 3 are more likely OKX wallets, and their on-chain behavior does not resemble that of exchanges, the probability of them being individual large holder wallets is higher.

3) Among the top 10 holding addresses, none of them obtained their Ordi through minting. Among the Mint users, the highest holdings are in wallets ranked 19 to 27, totaling 9 wallet addresses, each minting 100,000 tokens, for a total of 900,000 Ordi. Based on on-chain behavior, it is basically confirmed that they are all owned by the same person. Calculating at 60 dollars per Ordi, this user has earned 54 million dollars, making them the biggest winner of Ordi.

In the top 40 holding addresses, we also found 4 addresses whose Ordi was also minted; they may have sold part of their holdings and now hold between 50,000 to 90,000 Ordi. Their earnings can still be in the millions. However, overall, compared to my analysis in May, in the top 20 holdings back then, there were 10 addresses that were Mint users, holding over 2 million Ordi in total. Therefore, since May, the overall turnover rate of Ordi has been relatively high. Early Mint users have already exchanged hands extensively, and now the earliest Ordi is very scarce.

Analysis of Recent Inflows in Exchanges

As the largest holding address and the biggest exchange, we have compiled statistics on its inflows and outflows over the past 7 days.

We found that on the 6th and 7th, there was a net inflow of over 300,000 Ordi each day. In contrast, from the 1st to the 5th, there was not as much as these two days. From the recent Ordi market, the latest round of price increase occurred from December 1 to 5, rising from 20 to 65 dollars. During these 5 days, although there were also net inflows, the most was on the 3rd with a total inflow of 138,000 tokens. However, after the FUD began on the 6th, the net inflow peaked, with 630,000 tokens flowing in over two days. It can also be observed that the outflows were very few. This indicates that during the Ordi price surge, there were many firm believers who were not in a hurry to sell. Conversely, during negative FUD, panic began, leading to a rush to exchanges for selling.

Analysis of Binance's Early Accumulation

During our on-chain investigation, we also discovered an interesting phenomenon. Ordi was listed on Binance on November 7, but Binance's wallet had already started Ordi inflows and outflows as early as September 8. This indicates that Binance actually prepared two months in advance. On September 8, Ordi was only 3 dollars; if we had monitored Binance's wallet on-chain in advance, we might have known this information early and could have bought in at 3 dollars, ensuring wealth. This approach can be considered for other coins as well.