整理 & 编译：深潮 TechFlow

In this issue, eGirl Capital partner CL discusses his crypto journey and shares some of his favorite memories from the last cycle.

Host: Taiki Maeda, Crypto Market Wizards Podcast

Speaker: CL, eGirl Capital partner

CL's Crypto Journey: From Personal Research to Fund Management

• CL mentioned that he started engaging in cryptocurrency trading in 2018. Initially, he tried a simple buy-and-hold strategy but soon realized that this approach did not yield the wealth growth he expected. When Bitcoin's price rose from $3,000 to $12,000, CL found that he still hadn't made much money, prompting him to consider using leveraged trading to increase potential returns.

• For CL, cryptocurrency trading felt more like a game. He was very interested in the reasons behind price movements, and this curiosity drove him to delve deeper into the market. CL shared many trading ideas on Twitter, which caught the attention of a fund company. He was invited to become an independent trader for the firm, marking a significant turning point in his career.

• During his time at the fund company, CL gained a wealth of trading experience. He began to understand the deeper workings of the market, especially regarding price manipulation and liquidity. This gave CL a clearer understanding of how the crypto market operates. He learned how to navigate different trading platforms and adjust his trading strategies based on market conditions.

• CL mentioned that his trading style is primarily short-term, and he rarely holds any trades for more than a month, with most trades focused on small-scale gains and losses. In 2020, CL decided to trade independently. He noted that this decision was not based on a detailed plan or logic but rather relied more on intuition and market opportunities.

CL's Trading Experience and Strategies

$Doge's Top Signal

• CL mentioned that he started trading $Doge at the end of 2020, just before the price surged significantly. CL and his team held a substantial market share, with him personally owning over 10% of the market's $Doge.

• CL attempted a long-term holding strategy for $Doge. He recalled a particular trade where he bought a quarterly contract, but due to a lack of buyers in the market, CL had to seek help to exit his quarterly contract. He contacted SBF and requested to exit the contract through over-the-counter (OTC) trading, which he successfully accomplished.

• CL pointed out that during the market peak, $Doge's daily trading volume reached an astonishing $20-30 billion, even surpassing the daily trading volume of some countries' fiat currencies. The high liquidity and trading activity of $Doge and other altcoins reflected the speculative nature of the market. In such scenarios, the market may overreact to any negative news or market changes.

• He believes that when all altcoins have high liquidity, it is often a signal of a market top, as market participants' enthusiasm peaks, often accompanied by excessive speculation.

Risk Control

• CL believes that viewing the cryptocurrency market as a game can help traders separate emotions from money. He mentioned that those who treat the market as a game often perform better, but there are risks involved, as they may not regard trading as a real financial activity.

• CL emphasized the importance of risk management. He gradually reduced risk starting from the end of 2020, as even small trading slippage could lead to significant losses. Therefore, it is crucial to start reducing risk at the right time. He considers the crypto market primarily a trading venue, although there is some value within it, most projects are worthless.

• CL mentioned that he earned a comfortable living through trading from 2018 to 2021. Although he initially had only a few thousand dollars in capital, he achieved financial freedom through trading.

Price-Volume Intuition

• CL believes that intuition is a key factor in the crypto market. Due to the high volatility and incomplete transparency of data in the crypto market, intuition plays a significant role in making trading decisions. CL pointed out that each trader's intuition is unique, based on personal experience, knowledge, and understanding of the market. Therefore, traders need to develop their trading strategies based on their intuition and experience.

• He mentioned that by observing and analyzing market charts over a long period, traders can cultivate an intuition about market dynamics, which helps them predict price levels and potential market movements, while a deep understanding of market trends, trading volume, and price behavior is key to forming effective intuition.

• CL described himself as a very aggressive trader, not overly concerned about entry points and lacking clear stop-loss points. He prefers to trade based on market momentum and liquidity rather than relying on specific prices or technical analysis.

• For example, CL mentioned some daily trades he made, going long when Bitcoin's price reached $37,700 and then exiting for profit around $38,000. He emphasized that these trades were based on market momentum, and while the profits were not large, they reflected his understanding of market dynamics.

Connecting with Other Traders

• CL believes that connecting and communicating with other traders can provide valuable information and insights, which are crucial for successful trading.

• CL suggests that new traders pay attention to on-chain traders and those on smaller centralized exchanges, who may be less noticed but can provide useful market insights. Many large accounts in the crypto market are overvalued; while these accounts may influence altcoin momentum, their information may not be as valuable as that from smaller accounts.

• He recommends using social media platforms like Twitter to identify and connect with traders who provide valuable insights into market dynamics. By establishing connections with these traders, one can gain a deeper understanding of the market.

Viewing Cryptocurrency Trading as a Game

• CL views cryptocurrency trading as a game, being more interested in understanding market dynamics and the reasons behind price movements rather than just making money. He believes this perspective helps him better understand the market and make more informed trading decisions.

• CL believes that although there are many worthless projects in the crypto market, there are still billions of dollars in market capitalization, indicating excessive optimism and speculation among market participants regarding these projects. This situation often occurs after the market experiences significant volatility or downturns, as investors seeking potential high-return opportunities tend to invest in these projects lacking substantial value.

• He mentioned that cryptocurrencies provide a new payment method for artists and other creators, which is more convenient and efficient than traditional payment methods. CL holds an open attitude toward the future of the cryptocurrency market. He believes that despite the many worthless projects, cryptocurrencies as a global trading asset offer more financial opportunities for people.

Fundamentals of the Crypto Market

• CL pointed out that the concept of fundamentals in the crypto market differs from that in traditional markets. In traditional markets, fundamentals typically involve factors such as a company's financial condition, profitability, and market position. However, in the crypto market, the definition of fundamentals is more ambiguous and often relates to social media influence and market attention.

• CL mentioned that social media plays an increasingly important role in the cryptocurrency market. He believes that the influence and attention of social media have become a kind of "fundamental" for cryptocurrencies. If a project or token gains widespread attention and discussion on social media, its value may rise.

• CL noted that traders' decisions are often based on two main reasons: factual reasons and social reasons. Factual reasons involve specific data and analysis, while social reasons relate to social acceptance and trends.

• When discussing how to assess the value of cryptocurrencies, CL mentioned that it often depends on how many people know about the token and their level of interest in it. He believes that even if a project has excellent technology, it is unlikely to succeed if no one is talking about it.

DeFi

• CL emphasized that especially in 2020, DeFi became the newest and most talked-about area in the crypto market. He believes the rise of DeFi is due to its provision of a new way to earn yields based on smart contracts. For example, users can earn token rewards by depositing funds, a model that was considered very innovative at the time.

• CL recalled a trade he made in 2019 using the Synthetix platform, where he deposited a certain amount of ETH and earned a 4% yield.

• CL pointed out that he could directly see how his ETH was being lent out, a transparency that is rarely seen in traditional financial systems, where users typically cannot directly track the specific use of their deposits. On the Synthetix platform, if someone wants to borrow ETH, they need to find someone willing to lend the same amount of ETH, a mechanism that starkly contrasts with the indirect nature of traditional banking systems. Users know their funds are secure because if the borrower fails to repay, they will face higher compensation costs, providing a degree of security for both lenders and borrowers.

• CL holds an open attitude toward the future of DeFi, believing that any project related to yields is attractive. He thinks that over time, DeFi may continue to attract new investors, especially those more familiar with traditional financial concepts.

RWA

• CL mentioned that although he is not familiar with certain areas, he believes any project related to yields is attractive because people are always interested in earning passive income. He noted that whether in DeFi, gaming, or AI, as long as a project can provide yields, it will attract the attention of investors and participants.

• CL stated that although he may not be familiar with all areas of the cryptocurrency market, he is open to exploring new opportunities. He believes that understanding and participating in these emerging fields may bring new trading opportunities and sources of income.

• CL believes that while RWA is a new field, it may appeal to older investors who are more familiar with traditional financial products. He mentioned Ripple (XRP), which has established partnerships with several banks and financial institutions through its payment solutions, particularly its cross-border payment system RippleNet. This collaboration with traditional financial institutions helps attract conservative investors or those less familiar with cryptocurrencies.

• By demonstrating how cryptocurrencies can work in conjunction with existing financial systems, Ripple increases its appeal to mainstream financial markets. He believes that projects like Ripple, through collaboration with traditional financial institutions, provide significant momentum for the further development and maturation of the cryptocurrency market. This collaboration helps enhance public awareness and trust in cryptocurrencies while also providing a model for cooperation and development for other crypto projects.

• CL believes that as the cryptocurrency market matures and develops, RWA may become an important area, appealing to older investors who are more familiar with traditional financial products. This is because RWA offers a way to combine traditional assets with the cryptocurrency market, which may be more attractive to investors who are conservative about purely digital assets.

• CL pointed out that RWA serves as a bridge, helping investors familiar with traditional investment methods understand and accept the cryptocurrency market. Since RWA involves physical assets, these assets are more familiar and reliable for traditional investors. By incorporating physical assets into the cryptocurrency market, RWA provides a more familiar and reliable investment environment for traditional investors, helping to alleviate some of their concerns and uncertainties about fully digital assets.

• CL believes that the introduction of RWA helps enhance the cryptocurrency market's appeal to traditional investor groups, which not only helps expand the participant base of the market but also improves the overall market's acceptability and trustworthiness. As RWA integrates and develops within the cryptocurrency market, it will promote the maturation of the entire market, providing pathways for more traditional assets and investors to enter the cryptocurrency market.

The Role of KOLs in the Crypto Space

• CL pointed out that there are currently many rumors about the nickname "Cat." However, it is actually because CL's mother once visited a fortune teller, who predicted that CL would be a great writer and might achieve success, but there was also a risk of being pursued. To protect CL from being chased, the fortune teller advised him to remain humble and gentle, perhaps using a cute nickname, so his mother called him "Cat."

• CL discussed that as a public figure, the advantage is the freedom to express his thoughts. However, his notoriety may sometimes intimidate those with fewer followers, who might mistakenly believe CL is a billionaire with immense wealth, which could be a downside.

• CL noted that as more people engage in online activities, especially the younger generation, the role of influencers in the crypto market is becoming increasingly important. He believes this trend could lead to some issues, particularly when influencers have excessive power.

• CL mentioned that with the development of AI technology, there could even be AI-driven influencers who might become "dominant" in certain corners of social media, exerting a significant impact on the market. He worries that this situation could lead to increased market manipulation and fraudulent activities, such as misleading investors through fake accounts or phishing scams.

• CL pointed out that due to the anonymity and volatility of the crypto market, establishing and maintaining a reliable identity is a challenge. This anonymity makes it more difficult to identify and trust genuine market participants. While starting a new identity is relatively easy, making an identity influential is much harder. This requires time and effort, especially in a highly competitive and rapidly changing market.

Reputation System

• CL mentioned the idea of establishing a reputation system in the crypto market, aimed at helping distinguish genuine, trustworthy market participants from potential fraudsters or bots, with the goal of enhancing market transparency and credibility, helping users identify and differentiate real participants from potential dishonest actors (such as fraudsters or bots).

• CL recognizes that building such a reputation system may require the participation and time investment of the entire community. To effectively implement such a system, broad support and cooperation from the community are needed. Although establishing such a system may be challenging, it could help improve the transparency and security of the cryptocurrency market. This is crucial for enhancing user confidence and promoting the long-term healthy development of the market.