2023 Q4 Token Unlock Overview

Written by: TokenInsight

October Token Unlocks

In October, several well-known projects including Aptos, ApeCoin, Axie Infinity, and Optimism will experience a new round of token unlocks. We have compiled 12 upcoming token unlock events with amounts exceeding $1 million. The content includes key data such as unlock quantities, dates, amounts, and circulating supply.

Now, let's take a closer look at the specifics of these unlocks and analyze their potential impact on token prices.

Summary of October Token Unlock Events Over $1M

Large Unlocks

In October, there are 4 projects with token unlock amounts exceeding $10M, namely Apecoin, Aptos, Optimism, and Axie Infinity. Among them, Axie Infinity has the largest unlock amount of all tokens in October.

Axie Infinity (AXS)

Axie Infinity will unlock approximately 15.13M AXS on October 20 at 9:10 PM Beijing time, valued at $67.91M. The number of tokens unlocked this time accounts for about 11.5% of the current circulating supply of AXS. The specific distribution of the unlock is as follows:

• Team: 40.19%
• Staking Rewards: 22.67%
• Play to Earn: 22.34%
• Ecosystem Fund: 11.17%
• Project Advisors: 3.63%

It can be seen that the largest portion of this unlock is from the team. According to data disclosed by Axie Infinity, the allocation for the AXS team accounts for about 17.2% of the total supply of AXS. Since November 4, 2020, this portion has been unlocked by 59.52%, approximately 33.75M AXS. The unlock frequency is every 6 months, with a single unlock of 10.12%.

We calculated the possible price change of AXS based on the circulating supply proportion of this unlock (assuming the market cap remains unchanged). The price of AXS may fluctuate downwards by 10.32% due to this unlock. However, considering the historical data from the last unlock and the selling situation, the actual volatility of AXS's price is unlikely to be that significant.

According to the price fluctuation data from the last unlock, the price movement caused by the last unlock was not significant, around 1%. Additionally, the number of tokens unlocked this time has decreased in several parts except for the team and ecosystem fund portions. The total number of tokens unlocked has decreased by approximately 4.13M. Therefore, the impact of this unlock on the price of AXS is unlikely to be as large as calculated, and it is highly probable that it will be lower than the last time.

AXS Price Changes (April 23~30, 2023)

Optimism (OP)

Optimism will unlock approximately 24.16M OP on October 30 at 12 PM Beijing time, valued at $30.92M. The number of tokens unlocked this time accounts for about 2.74% of the current circulating supply of OP. The specific distribution of the unlock is as follows:

• Core Contributors: 52.77%
• Investors: 47.23%

According to information disclosed by Optimism, this unlock is a fixed linear unlock (monthly) for the above two parts since the Cliff unlock on May 31, 2023, accounting for approximately 1.56% of these two parts. Currently, both the core contributors and investors portions have been unlocked by 34.1%.

Aptos (APT)

Aptos will unlock approximately 4.45M APT on October 12 at 8 AM Beijing time, valued at $17.16M. The number of tokens unlocked this time accounts for about 1.9% of the current circulating supply of APT. The specific distribution of the unlock is as follows:

• Foundation: 29.3%
• Community: 70.7%

According to information disclosed by Aptos, this unlock is a fixed linear unlock (monthly) for the above two parts since October 2022, accounting for 0.63% and 0.81%, respectively.

However, it is worth noting that APT will have its first unlock for the core contributors and investors portions in one month (November 12, 2023). The unlock amount will be 6.25% of these two parts, with a frequency of once a month. The total number of tokens unlocked will be approximately 5 times that of the October unlock, totaling 24.84M APT.

Apecoin (APE)

Apecoin will unlock approximately 15.6M APE on October 17 at 8 AM Beijing time, valued at $23.99M. The number of tokens unlocked this time accounts for about 4.23% of the current circulating supply of APE. The specific distribution of the unlock is as follows:

• DAO: 47.05%
• Yuga Labs & Founders: 40.96%
• Core Contributors: 10.2%
• Charity: 1.79%

According to information disclosed by Apecoin, the tokens unlocked this time are all fixed linear unlocks for the above portions (monthly).

Price Volatility Prediction

Predicted Price Volatility After Token Unlocks

We calculated the possible price changes of the tokens based on the unlock circulating supply proportion for each project (assuming the market cap remains unchanged). From the chart, it is clear that Axie Infinity and CyberConnect are the two projects with the largest circulating supply proportions among the October token unlocks. If all unlocked tokens are sold, it would have an impact of over 10% on their token prices. But will the actual situation be exactly as calculated? The answer is clearly no.

According to statistics, the tokens of these projects unlocked in October are basically fixed linear unlocks on a monthly basis. Therefore, when calculating the price impact, we need to consider the historical price fluctuations and the token selling situation together. Additionally, the volatility shown in the chart is calculated under the assumption that the market cap remains unchanged, which does not align with the actual market situation.

Thus, considering all factors, the actual price volatility of all project tokens from this unlock will be significantly lower than the data shown in the chart. For example, as discussed in the Axie Infinity section above, the actual price volatility of AXS will likely not exceed 10%, and it is very probable that it will not even reach 1%.

November and December Token Unlocks

The unlock events in October are mostly ongoing monthly fixed linear unlocks. Although there are some projects with larger unlock amounts that are worth noting, overall, there are no projects that require special attention.

However, it is worth noting that among these projects, Aptos and dYdX will experience "real" large unlocks in November and December. Let's take a look at the specific unlock information.

APT

Aptos will have its first unlock for the core contributors and investors portions on November 12, 2023. The unlock amount will be 6.25% of these two parts. The specific unlock amounts are as follows:

• Core Contributors: 11.875M APT
• Investors: 8.425M APT

In addition to the previously fixed linear monthly unlocks for the community and foundation portions, Aptos will unlock a total of 24.84M APT in November. This amount is approximately 5 times that of the October unlock, valued at about $121.5M, accounting for 10.37% of the current market cap of APT.

DYDX

dYdX will have its first unlock for the investors, employees/advisors, and future employees/advisors portions on December 3, 2023. The unlock amount will be 30% of these three parts. The specific unlock amounts are as follows:

• Investors: 83.1M DYDX
• Employees/Advisors: 45.9M DYDX
• Future Employees/Advisors: 21M DYDX

In December, dYdX will unlock a total of 150M DYDX at once, valued at approximately $285.69M, accounting for 84.6% of the current market cap of DYDX.

Conclusion

After organizing all the unlock information and analysis, we conclude as follows:

Most of the unlocks in October come from the team/investor/advisor portions and are basically ongoing monthly fixed linear unlocks. Although some individual unlock amounts are larger, there are no significant one-time large unlocks after the Cliff.

While some projects (like AXS) have a high calculated price volatility based on the circulating supply proportion of token unlocks, considering the historical price fluctuation and selling situation, the impact of this unlock on their token prices will not be significant.

There are two unlock events in November and December that require special attention: the 24.84M APT unlock on November 12 and the 150M DYDX unlock on December 3.